Tuesday, September 17, 2013

American League wild card race will be a wild one

With roughly a dozen games to go in the 2013 baseball season, the division winners in the American League are all but decided.

The Boston Red Sox lead the AL East by nine games. The Oakland A's are up 6.5 games in the AL West, and the Detroit Tigers lead the AL Central by 6.

That said, nine of the 15 teams in the American League still have legitimate pennant hopes entering play on this, the 17th day of September. Six teams are fighting for the two wild card spots, and all of them are within 2.5 games of each other. This must be exactly what commissioner Bud Selig had in mind when he added that extra wild card position.

Take a look at the wild card standings entering Tuesday's play:
1. Tampa Bay  82-67 (+1.0)
2. Texas 81-68  (-)
3. Cleveland 81-69 (0.5 GB)
4. Baltimore 79-70 (2.0 GB)
5. Kansas City 79-71 (2.5 GB)
6. New York 79-71 (2.5 GB)

Only two of the six can qualify, and for the longest time, it looked like Texas would be one of those teams. No more. If you thought the White Sox were struggling, take a look at what the Rangers have done this month. They are 2-12 in September, and their starting pitchers have gone 1-12 in that time frame. Former Cub Matt Garza was the latest to get knocked around. He lasted only 4.1 innings Monday in a 6-2 Texas loss to Tampa Bay. This is a real critical time for the Rangers. They have three more games in a four-game set with the Rays before heading to Kansas City for a crucial weekend series against the Royals.

Speaking of Kansas City, the Royals got a big game from James Shields (pictured) in a 7-1 victory over Cleveland on Monday night. The Royals and Indians meet again Tuesday and Wednesday in the other big, head-to-head series between wild card contenders. Kansas City will send 22-year-old prospect Yordano Ventura to the mound to make his major league debut Tuesday night. No pressure, kid. Nothing at stake except Kansas City's first legitimate chance to make the playoffs in nearly three decades.

Even with Chicago teams dead and buried, there is still some good baseball left to watch. This AL wild card race could end up as one for the ages.


















Wednesday, September 11, 2013

It's hard to evaulate Erik Johnson's first two White Sox starts

No matter what happens the rest of the year, it has been a good season for 23-year-old White Sox rookie right-hander Erik Johnson.

The former second-round draft pick tore up both Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte, going 12-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 24 combined starts. He earned his September callup to the White Sox.

Unfortunately, it hasn't gone well for him in his first two major league starts. Johnson has given up 11 runs and 14 hits in 9.2 innings. He has suffered losses to both the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers.

But, it's really hard to determine how much of that mess is Johnson's fault. Only five of the 11 runs he's given up have been earned. The White Sox committed four errors, including three by third baseman Conor Gillaspie (pictured), during Johnson's 9-1 loss to Detroit on Tuesday night.

Rookie pitchers are always nervous their first few starts in the majors. It's human nature. But young pitchers tend to settle down much quicker if all the plays are being made behind them. Johnson hasn't had that luxury. Instead, he's had to make a lot of extra pitches and been placed in some jams that were not of his own making. He's been asked to get a number of extra outs, and he hasn't been able to do that. I've seen much more veteran pitchers than Johnson crumble under similar circumstances.

It's unfortunate, because you'd like to get a good evaulation of Johnson coming down the stretch of this season. He's dominated hitters at the minor-league level, and it's time to find out whether he can challenge for a job in the 2014 starting rotation. Two starts in, I have no read on that whatsoever. Johnson's numbers are ugly, but it's hard to cast stones at a rookie who has received no help at all from his teammates.

Speaking of bad defense

Gillaspie on Tuesday became the first Sox player to commit three errors in one game since Andy Gonzalez on Aug. 30, 2007. That's not company you want to keep.

It has been a brutal September for the Sox thus far. They are 2-8 this month and have committed 17 errors in those 10 games.

The Sox now have a major-league high 108 errors for the season, leading to 70 unearned runs. Last year, the Sox committed a league-low 70 errors. The defensive regression in one year is really hard to explain, but poor defense does explain a 58-86 record; that much I know.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Chris Sale vs. Max Scherzer

I've said it many times: I'm a bad American. I often don't care about things other Americans care deeply about. And no matter what ESPN says, I can't get excited about a supposedly critical early-season NFC East matchup.

Instead, my eyes were cast toward U.S. Cellular Field on Monday night as the two best pitchers in the American League this year went head-to-head.

White Sox left-hander Chris Sale struck out eight over eight innings and allowed just a solo home run to Victor Martinez and four hits to lead the South Siders to a 5-1 win over the Detroit Tigers and right-hander Max Scherzer (pictured).

Sale's strikeout of Austin Jackson to end the third inning was his 200th of the season. He became the first pitcher in Sox history to record 200 strikeouts before hitting the 200-inning plateau. Previously, Javier Vazquez was the fastest Sox pitcher to 200 Ks in one season. Vazquez recorded his 200th strikeout of the 2007 season in his 207th inning. Sale got there in just 190.2 innings.

This was not a good night for Scherzer (19-3). For the third consecutive start, he was denied in his bid for his 20th victory. He allowed five runs (four earned) and needed 90 pitches to get through four innings. By the fifth inning, he had been removed from the game.

That said, Scherzer is still going to win the Cy Young Award in the American League this year. His team is in first place, and how can you argue with a 19-3 record? He's been awesome. But if you look at the statistics as a whole, the only category Scherzer has a significant advantage over Sale in is the won-loss column. Sale is just 11-12 because, well, the White Sox stink. Sale has posted a quality start in seven of his 12 losses. If he had a real team behind him, he'd have 18 or 19 wins, too, and we'd have a neck-and-neck race for the Cy Young. Let's look at some of the other stats besides the won-loss record:

Sale's ERA is 2.90; Scherzer's is 3.01.

Sale has four complete games this season; Scherzer has none.

Sale has a shutout to his credit; Scherzer does not.

Sale has thrown 195.2 innings; Scherzer has pitched 194.1.

Scherzer has 215 strikeouts; Sale has 207.

Scherzer's WHIP is 0.962; Sale's is 1.037.

Scherzer strikes out 10.0 men for every nine innings pitched; Sale fans 9.5 for every nine innings pitched.

Sale's K/BB ratio is 5.05; Scherzer's is 4.48.

These two men have similar numbers in every category except one: wins and losses. They have both been just outstanding. Scherzer will get to show his stuff in the postseason again this October. It is too bad Sale's brilliant season has gone to waste on the 2013 White Sox.

Friday, September 6, 2013

Charity event in Schaumburg to feature former White Sox, former Cubs

If I didn't already have plans for the weekend, I might be tempted to attend the Inaugural Larry A. Pogofsky Chicago All-Star Softball Challenge.

The event is scheduled for 4 p.m. Saturday at Boomers Stadium in Schaumburg. Former White Sox players will take on former Cubs players in an softball game to benefit Chicago White Sox Charities, Chicago Cubs Charities and the Special Kids Network.

There are some several good names on the list of scheduled attendees, former All-Stars from both teams, at least one future Hall of Famer and even an former World Series MVP (pictured). Here are the rosters:

White Sox: Frank Thomas, Jermaine Dye, Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Lee, Ray Durham, Ron Kittle, Magglio Ordonez, Cliff Politte, James Baldwin, Tony Phillips, Norberto Martin, Chad Kreuter and Brian Anderson

Cubs: Derrek Lee, Lee Smith, Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd, Jamie Moyer, Michael Barrett, Bob Dernier, Brian McRae, Bill Madlock, Steve Trout, Scott Eyre, Willie Wilson, Gary Matthews Jr., Manny Trillo and Adam Greenberg.

I did notice they have 15 former Cubs listed and only 13 former Sox. Trout played five years on both sides of town, so maybe they should have him play for the Sox to even out the sides. 

In any case, it sounds like a good time. Tickets start at $15. They're saying this is an inaugural event, which implies they are going to do this again next year. Maybe I'll put it on my calendar for 2014.

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Adam Dunn claims he is considering retirement

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Tuesday that White Sox first baseman Adam Dunn is thinking of retiring at the end of the season.

We all know there's no way that's going to happen, so let me pause for a moment while you finish chuckling at the absurdity of it all ....

OK, now that you're done, I'll point out that Dunn has one year left on his contract with the Sox, and that contract is worth $15 million. That means Dunn has 15 million good reasons to come back and play next year, no matter how bad the Sox are going to be.

The 33-year-old Dunn has a legitimate shot at 500 home runs. He needs just 64 more. But, he claims neither money nor milestones will cause him to continue playing.

“I’m not coming back just to come back for money or because I have one year left (on his contract),” Dunn told Fox Sports on Tuesday. “I’m not coming back to chase home run numbers or whatever. If I end up with 499 and I’m not having fun, see ya -- 499 it is.”

I don't buy it. I think Dunn is speaking out of frustration. The Sox are 56-81 this year, far worse than even the biggest pessimist could have imagined. Dunn's buddy, Jake Peavy, got traded to a contending Boston team midseason. Other veterans, like Alex Rios, Matt Thornton and Jesse Crain, were also moved to clubs that are in the hunt.

You can bet your life the Sox tried to trade Dunn as well, but found no takers. Dunn is stuck on a losing team with an increasingly young roster, and he's jealous of Peavy and others who were traded to teams that are in a more favorable situation. More than anything, that is the source of Dunn's torment.

Count Sox manager Robin Ventura among the people who believe Dunn will play next year.

“I don’t see him not playing (next season). I’ve heard a lot of guys say that, and they still play," Ventura told Fox Sports. "“It’s tough. For (veterans) like that, it’s hard to go through. You’re frustrated. Sometimes, it’s you. Sometimes, it’s the way the team is playing. But it doesn’t guarantee anything for next season. He has been around long enough to know next year could be different. It can be better than it is right now."

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Dunn retire. I'd love for the Sox to have $15 million more to spend on someone or something else. But that just isn't going to happen. If I had to take a guess, I'd say the Sox and Dunn are mutually stuck with each other through 2014.

See you next spring in Glendale, Adam. 




Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Tyler Flowers' disastrous 2013 is thankfully over

It's no secret I was never on board with the White Sox decision to make Tyler Flowers their starting catcher.

Yes, I wanted to keep A.J. Pierzynski for another year or two, and it wasn't because of 2005 nostalgia. It was because Pierzynski is still a far superior player to Flowers, even at his advancing age, and I didn't think it took a brain surgeon to figure that out.

I understood the reasons the Sox cut the cord with Pierzynski. He's a 36-year-old catcher. He wasn't going to duplicate the 27-homer season he had in 2012, and there was talk that he wasn't on the same page with manager Robin Ventura and the coaching staff last season.

That said, if you are going to jettison a productive player, you better have a replacement lined up. And that somebody needs to be better than Tyler Flowers. I knew going into the season Flowers was incapable of being anything more than a backup at the big-league level. He has tantalizing power, but that's his only real plus. He has holes in his swing like Swiss cheese, strikes out way too much and isn't as good defensively as Sox brass claims he is. I figured given a whole season, Flowers might bat .220. Actually, he batted .195 in 84 games this year before going on the disabled list this week to undergo right shoulder surgery.

Reports indicate Flowers first tweaked the shoulder about a year ago. The pain intensified before spring training, and he found out a couple months ago he would need the surgery.

So, the Sox knew before spring training Flowers wasn't healthy, yet they were willing to start the season with him and career minor-leaguer Hector Gimenez as their two big-league catchers. Given what we know now, it's even less of a surprise that the catching position has been a complete disaster for the 2013 White Sox. An injured Tyler Flowers was considered the best option in the organization. That's brutal.

Meanwhile, Pierzynski (.280 avg., 16 HR, 58 RBIs) continues to display competence as the starting catcher on a Texas Rangers ballclub that is tied for first place in the AL West entering Tuesday's action. Thud.

The Sox are left to hope and pray rookie Josh Phegley shows them something the last month of the season. Since an electric first week that included three home runs, Phegley has slumped to a .214 average. His defense has been poor. He dropped a routine pop up Monday against the Yankees, and I've been unimpressed with his receiving ability. Too many wild pitches and not enough pitches being blocked. Phegley will need to hit a lot to overcome his defensive shortcomings. While I'm more optimistic about his offensive abilities than I was about Flowers, the Sox need to see more before they can comfortably go into 2014 thinking Phegley is their catcher.

No matter what, the Sox would be smart to cut their losses with Flowers. He's damaged goods now, and I wouldn't want him in even a backup role. If they want to give Phegley a full-time shot, fine, but sign a serviceable veteran this offseason just in case Phegley fails as well.

I know the list of potential free agent catchers isn't exciting (except for Brian McCann, who is likely out of the Sox price range), but think about it: Anybody who can hit .230 and catch the ball is an upgrade behind the plate over what the Sox have right now. The standard for improvement at that position is not high.

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Do you suppose the Cubs wish they still had Chris Archer? Or Josh Donaldson?

As a matter of philsophy, I usually agree with the idea of trading prospects for proven veterans. After all, you generally know what you're going to get from a veteran player, and as a percentage, the overwhelming majority of prospects are busts.

If you take a look at what the White Sox have done over the last 10 or 15 years, most of former GM Ken Williams' trades have involved dealing future prospects to acquire help for the here and now. When I look at all the young players Williams traded, the only one I wish the Sox still had is Gio Gonzalez.

Strangely enough, the Sox traded him twice. In 2005, they sent him and Aaron Rowand to Philadelphia for Jim Thome (good trade). They reacquired him, along with Gavin Floyd, for Freddy Garcia in 2006 (also a decent trade). Then, they sent him to Oakland in 2008 with Ryan Sweeney and Fautino De Los Santos for Nick Swisher (terrible trade).

The rest of the players Williams traded, I can't say I miss.

Here are two guys the former GM of the Cubs (Jim Hendry) traded that I'll bet the current GM (Jed Hoyer) wishes he still had: Tampa Bay pitcher Chris Archer and Oakland third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Archer, a 24-year-old right-hander, is having a breakout season for the Rays. He's 8-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 17 starts. He's allowed two earned runs or less in 12 of those outings. Pretty impressive for a kid who just joined the rotation on June 1 and is pitching in the rugged AL East. 

The Cubs acquired Archer from Cleveland in the Mark DeRosa deal in 2008, but in 2011, they flipped him to Tampa Bay in an eight-player deal that brought Matt Garza to the North Side of Chicago. Over 2 1/2 seasons, Garza went 21-18 in 60 starts for the Cubs. He, of course, is no longer on the team, having been traded to the Texas Rangers earlier this summer.

Meanwhile, the Rays have a potential ace on their roster. The Cubs are still looking for that guy. Some people in Chicago seem to believe Jeff Samardzija is an ace. I disagree. A 28-year-old with a 4.13 ERA who is blowing 5-0 leads against the woeful Philadelphia Phillies is not an ace. He's a mid-rotation starter on a contender. The Cubs should consider trading him this offseason. He's not going to get any better than he is right now.

Donaldson, a 27-year-old third baseman, is a bit of a forgotten man. Most people haven't noticed his .296 average, 19 home runs and 77 RBIs this season because he plays for Oakland. Most people have probably also forgotten the Cubs selected him 48th overall in the 2007 draft.

In July of 2008, Donaldson, Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson were traded to Oakland for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. At the time, Donaldson was the least talked about player of the four the Cubs gave up. Right now, he looks like the best player in that deal. He plays third base, too, and it seems like about half the teams in baseball are looking for someone to fill that position. It took five years, but that acquisition is paying dividends for the A's, who certainly do not miss Harden or Gaudin.

With both Chicago teams out of the pennant race this year, both clubs have traded some veterans for future considerations this summer. A couple years down the line, maybe they'll strike gold in some of these deals. Only time will tell. Most of the time, the team acquiring the veteran wins the trade. But every now and then, you seen a trade like the Archer deal or the Donaldson deal where the team acquiring the prospects prevails.