Friday, June 6, 2014

White Sox select LHP Carlos Rodon with No. 3 overall pick

There are few rewards that come with suffering through a 99-loss season -- other than getting a high pick in the following June's MLB First-Year Player Draft.

Accordingly, the White Sox had the No. 3 overall pick as a result a disastrous 2013 campaign, and on Thursday they used it to select pitcher Carlos Rodon, a 6-foot-3, 235-pound left-hander out of North Carolina State.

Rodon came into the spring as the consensus top prospect in the draft. An inconsistent college season caused his stock to slip slightly, but the Sox were obviously unmoved. Rodon was widely considered the best college pitcher in the draft, and quite possibly, the most major league ready pitcher in the draft.

The left-hander has a fastball that sits in the mid- to low-90s consistently and can occasionally touch 96 or 97 mph. But it is his slider that might get him to the big leagues quickly.

"When they can bury a slider on the back foot of a right-handed hitter and get it in under his hands, then you know a guy has a really good one," White Sox scouting director Doug Laumann told MLB.com. "It's a dominant pitch. That's not to take away anything from his fastball and changeup, which are also plus pitches."

Rodon was overpowering during his 2013 sophomore campaign at N.C. State, going 10-3 with a 2.99 ERA and racking up 184 strikeouts against just 45 walks in 132.1 innings. This spring, his junior season was considered not quite as strong, but the numbers still look good despite a mediocre 6-7 won-loss record. Rodon posted a 2.01 ERA and fanned 117 against 31 walks in 98.2 innings.

As with all prospects, it's impossible to know for certain how Rodon will do once he signs a contract and joins the White Sox organization, but the team was smart to draft pitching in the first round. The Sox have a couple holes in their big-league rotation now, and aside from the struggling Erik Johnson, they don't have a lot of starting pitchers on the farm who are close to big-league ready.

Some say Rodon might be in the majors before this year is over, possibly in a situational relief role. Thinking optimistically, perhaps he could challenge for a rotation spot sometime in 2015.

If he does crack the rotation sometime before 2016, that would give the Sox four left-handed starting pitchers -- with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and John Danks already in place.

For some reason, the idea of having four left-handed starters is a source of much consternation among Chicago media. I fail to see why that's a big deal. When the White Sox won the World Series in 2005, four of their five starting pitchers were right-handed. In fact, quite a few teams have four right-handers in their rotation. If a team has four lefties, so what? How is that different and what's the big deal?

Just find me five guys who can pitch. I don't care if they are left-handed or right-handed.

Speaking of right-handed pitchers, the Sox used their second-round selection on Spencer Adams from White County High School in Georgia.

Adams was ranked the 27th-best prospect by MLB and 21st-best prospect by Baseball America, so the Sox probably felt fortunate to see him available at No. 44 overall.

The right-hander has mid-90s fastball. The slider is his second-best pitch. He also features a curveball and a changeup.

The First-Year Player Draft continues Friday with Rounds 3 through 10. The event concludes Saturday with Rounds 10 through 40. 

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Mike Schmidt chimes in on rising K rates

It's no secret strikeouts are at an all-time high in baseball. After an explosion of offense in the steroid-infested 1990s, the pendulum has swung back in the direction of the pitchers in recent seasons. One of every five at-bats now ends in a strikeout, leading some to say the game of baseball is more boring than in the past because the ball is being put in play with less frequency.

What are the reasons for the increased K rate? And are there any solutions? It's always interesting to get the perspective of former players, so I found the article written by Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt to be a worthwhile read.

Schmidt had nearly 1,900 strikeouts in his career, so he seems like the last guy who should be criticizing today's players for striking out too much. But keep in mind, he was a three-time MVP who hit 548 home runs in the major leagues. He might have been striking out once every five at-bats -- as today's players do -- but he was producing 30 home runs and 100 RBIs every year. Many of today's hitters fall well short of those benchmarks, while still striking out at ridiculous rates.

Here are some of Schmidt's theories on the increase in strikeouts:

1. Pitchers throw harder now. In the 1980s, there were a handful of guys who could reach 95 mph on the radar gun. Most fastballs topped out in the high 80s. Nowadays, pitchers who can't consistently top 90 mph are considered marginal pitchers. It's not unusual to have a staff full of guys who throw 95 consistently. More velocity from pitchers means more strikeouts for hitters.

2. Hitting coaches don't have enough clout to demand a two-strike approach. If you can bat .250 with 80 RBIs, you will become a rich man in baseball - even if you strike out 150 times. Hitters are of the mindset to swing for the fences no matter the count or the situation. Run production means dollars. Schmidt notes the modern hitter doesn't realize the importance of making contact in close games. He says good RBI men can pick up 20 to 30 extra RBIs a year with a simple groundout. That's the difference between 80 RBIs and 100 RBIs.

3. Pitch counts. The offensive philosophy of the modern game is to take pitches, work counts, get the starter out of there and get into the bullpen as quickly as possible. Therefore, hitters are taking more hittable pitches early in the count, leading to more two-strike counts. More two-strike counts is always going to lead to more strikeouts.

For me, the third point is the one that really cuts to the heart of the matter. I'm amazed at how many hitters will take first-pitch fastball strike right down the middle, especially in RBI situations. Or, worse yet, pitchers know hitters want to "work counts," so they'll throw a sloppy get-me-over curve on first pitch. Typically, that's a pitch that should be hit hard, but you see guys taking that for strike one.

Oftentimes, that pitch early in the sequence is the best one a hitter gets in an at-bat. Later, once the hitter has "worked the count" and has two strikes, the pitcher comes up with something nasty and gets the strikeout.

Schmidt says, "What I did was learn to hit the fastball, in play, hard, early in the count, more often." I think that would be my philosophy, especially in RBI situations. There are times where it is prudent to try to work counts, but the better pitcher, the less likely that is to work.

If you try to "work counts" against an elite pitcher, chances are you're gonna be behind 0-2 or 1-2 in the count, and then it's an uphill fight. Heck, it's an uphill fight if you're behind 0-2 or 1-2 against a mediocre pitcher.

As that long as that philosophy prevails, I think we'll continue to see high strikeout rates.

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Little League-style inning costs White Sox

Maybe it's a good thing the White Sox were playing on the West Coast on Monday night. That means most fans had probably already retired for the evening when the Sox played their worst inning of the season to date.

What's really unfortunate about the whole mess is the Sox seemed to be in prime position to beat reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sox first baseman Jose Abreu had hit a two-run homer in his return from the disabled list to give the South Siders a 2-0 lead, an advantage they enjoyed into the sixth inning.

Jose Quintana was cruising on the mound for Chicago. He had a two-hitter going, and he had thrown only 65 pitches. He was outpitching Kershaw, hitting his spots and looking like he'd be able to blank the Dodgers at least through seven innings -- if not eight innings.

But then the White Sox infield turned in a pathetic, amateurish inning of defense in the sixth inning. Two errors cost Quintana five unearned runs, and the Dodgers went on to claim a 5-2 victory.

Kershaw got a base hit to start the inning, but that didn't seem like too big a deal the way Quintana was pitching. He struck out Chone Figgins for the first out and induced Matt Kemp to hit into what should have been an inning-ending 4-6-3 double play. Too bad Sox second baseman Gordon Beckham forgot to catch the ball.

Instead of being out of the inning, the Dodgers had runners at first and second with one out, with Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez due to hit. That's when it was time for Quintana to toughen up.

Toughen up he did.

He fanned Puig for the second out, and got Ramirez to hit a routine chopper to third baseman Conor Gillaspie, who fielded the ball about eight steps behind the bag. Keep in mind, Kershaw was the runner at second base, so all Gillaspie needed to do was jog to the third-base bag and tag it for the third out. But, no, he for some reason decided to throw across the diamond. A good throw still would have gotten Ramirez by two strides, but he threw it in the dirt and Abreu failed to make a pick that most first baseman probably make.

It should have been inning over for a second time, but instead a run scored and the inning continued. The meltdown was on. Adrian Gonzalez hit an infield single that produced the tying run. Justin Turner hit a two-run bloop single just over the outstretched glove of Beckham that barely dented the outfield grass. Light-hitting Drew Butera hit a 35-hopper with eyes into right field for an RBI single.

All of a sudden, it was 5-2 Dodgers. With Kershaw on the mound, that's ballgame.

Quintana ended up needing six outs to get out of that nightmare, an inning in which he had to throw 40 pitches. After that, his night was done and the Sox were forced to go to the bullpen.

Had Beckham fielded the grounder on the routine double play, Quintana would have thrown just 15 pitches in that inning. Had Gillaspie made his play, Quintana would have gotten out of the inning with a still manageable pitch total of 23. Had either play been made, perhaps the Sox go on to win 2-0. We'll never know.

But those plays were not made, and that's why it's hard to believe the Sox are anything but a pretender this year, despite their hanging around in the muddled American League race.

The Sox are better than they were in 2013, but they still are not contenders. They make too many mistakes and beat themselves too often to be considered a potential playoff team. They've avoided long losing streaks to this point, but I won't be surprised if we see a hope-killing stretch of bad ball sometime in the near future.

A team can only outhit its mistakes for so long. 

Friday, May 30, 2014

White Sox All-Star possibilities -- there actually are some for a change

If you've recently been to a White Sox game and paid attention to the left field scoreboard, you know the team always runs an advertisement encouraging fans to vote their favorite "White Sox stars" into the All-Star Game. The advertisement always includes a list of Sox players who appear on this year's ballot.

The list always elicits a bit of a chuckle, as if anyone in their right mind would ever attempt to vote Alejandro De Aza into the All-Star Game. And last year, it would have been embarrassing to say you voted for any of the Sox' position players. None deserved the honor, and none were selected. Pitchers Chris Sale and Jesse Crain represented the club at the 2013 event.

This year is different, though. There actually are three Sox position players worth All-Star consideration. I'd go as far as saying one of them deserves your vote. Here's a list of Sox players who might make the trip to Minneapolis for the July 15 midsummer classic:

1. Alexei Ramirez - He has been the best shortstop in the American League this year. Based on merit, he deserves to start. Too bad he won't. In case you've been in a coma the past few months, New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter is retiring at the end of the season. The 39-year-old isn't the player he used to be, but there's no doubt the fans will give the future Hall of Famer the starting nod based on sentiment.

But, Ramirez is an easy choice for the next guy in line at shortstop. Entering Friday's play, he's tied for second in the league with a .327 batting average. His OPS is a career-high .843. He's got seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. After a poor defensive season last year, he's returned to form this season with just four errors to go along with a host of spectacular plays.

If he you believe in advanced metrics, Ramirez ranks eighth in the AL in offensive WAR, seventh in defensive WAR and fifth in the league in overall WAR. And, oh yeah, he's started all 55 White Sox games at shortstop.

He's the White Sox' MVP this year. He's got my vote.

2. Jose Abreu - The slugging first baseman has been on the disabled list for nearly two weeks, yet he still ranks third in the AL in home runs (15), fourth in RBIs (42), fourth in extra base hits (27) and 10th in total bases (103). The Sox' lineup looks different this year when Abreu is in it. He's a guy that pitchers fear every time he steps in the batters box, and the Sox haven't had that element since Jim Thome left the team.

First base is a crowded position in the American League, though. Toronto's Edwin Encarnacion has had a monster month of May and probably deserves to start, although Detroit's Miguel Cabrera will get the nod based upon his past track record. Albert Pujols (14 home runs) has regained his power stroke this year, and Brandon Moss has had a fine season for Oakland.

There's no shortage of competition among first basemen, so Abreu will need to get back in the lineup soon to have a shot at being selected. Reports indicate he will come off the disabled list the first day he is eligible -- June 2. If Abreu jumps back in and continues hitting like he did the first six or seven weeks of the season, he's got a great chance.

3. Conor Gillaspie - Bet you never thought you'd see Gillaspie's name on a list like this. I'm not going to tell you to vote for Gillaspie to start, because Oakland's Josh Donaldson is the best third baseman in the American League -- both offensively and defensively. In fact, Donaldson is an MVP candidate to this point in the season because he is the best player on a first-place team.

That said, it's hard to ignore Gillaspie's .352/.394/.461 slash line, especially since third base isn't among the stronger positions in the American League. Gillaspie had a two-week stint on the disabled list earlier this year, which means he doesn't have quite enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. But, if he did, he'd be leading the league in hitting right now.

I'm not convinced Gillaspie is going to keep up the pace. Nothing about his track record suggests he will. However, if he stays hot for another couple weeks, he might find himself in Minnesota on July 15.

4. Sale -- The fans don't get to vote for pitchers, and I think Sale is a longshot to be chosen this year because he missed a whole month with an arm injury. But, he's been his usual dominant self when healthy -- 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA in six starts.

If "this one counts," as they say about the All-Star Game now, Sale is one of the pitchers who would give the American League the best opportunity to win. Left-handed hitters are batting .000 against him this season. I could see him being added to the All-Star roster just for the sake of being used as a situational left-hander in the late innings.

That said, I won't be upset if Sale doesn't get chosen this year. Coming off an arm injury, I just assume he not waste any of his bullets in the All-Star Game. As we've said in the past, he's the most important player in the Sox organization, and the team needs him healthy to compete.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Justin Verlander: Are his best days behind him?

To this point in the season, most observers are assuming the Detroit Tigers will win the AL Central Division for the fourth consecutive year.

There are a lot of reasons to believe that assumption is correct. After all, the Tigers have the second-best record in the American League (28-19) entering Tuesday's action, and they possess a five-game lead in the division.

No other AL Central team is above .500. The White Sox (26-27) enter Tuesday in second place, but they are closer to last place than first. Chicago, Kansas City (24-26), Minnesota (23-25) and Cleveland (24-28) are separated in the standings by just 1.5 games.

Is there any reason at all to believe the Tigers can be had this year? Well, you have to look pretty hard, but here's one thing Detroit should be concerned about: Veteran ace Justin Verlander is no longer pitching like a Cy Young award candidate.

The 31-year-old is 5-4 with 4.04 ERA in 11 starts this year. Those numbers are ordinary to say the least, and his peripherals are also not impressive. Verlander's 1.514 WHIP is well above his career mark of 1.203, and above the career-worst 1.403 he posted during his struggling 2008 season.

Moreover, Verlander's K rate has fallen off a cliff. He has fanned just 50 batters in 71.1 IP this year. That's not good for a pitcher who has averaged roughly one strikeout per inning in every season since 2009.

Verlander's month of May has been terrible. He's 2-3 with a 6.03 ERA in his last five starts, and he has surrendered five earned runs or more in each of his last three outings. That's not like Justin Verlander.

Maybe this is a just a slump, but Verlander was coming off a "down" 2013 by his standards, in which he went 13-12 with a 3.46 ERA. In fact, if you look at the last five years you can see that Verlander is on a decline since his 2011 peak:

201018-9, 3.37 ERA 219 Ks in 224.1 IP1.163 WHIP
201124-5, 2.40 ERA251Ks in 251 IP 0.920 WHIP
201217-8, 2.64 ERA239 Ks in 238.1 IP1.057 WHIP
201313-12, 3.46 ERA217 Ks in 218.1 IP1.315 WHIP
20145-4, 4.04 ERA50 Ks in 71.1 IP1.514 WHIP

From these numbers, we can't say Verlander is bad now.  However,  he's starting to profile more as a No. 3 starter than the ace he has been in the past. There's really not much question Max Scherzer has overtaken him as the Tigers' best pitcher.

Starting pitching is the edge Detroit enjoys over the rest of the division, but that advantage becomes a little less if Verlander's day to pitch becomes more of a coin toss than a likely Detroit victory. That's where things stand now. It remains to be seen whether Verlander can regain his ace form. The Tigers need him to if they want to make it back to the World Series and win it.

But, even if Verlander is no longer an ace, it remains a open question whether the other teams in the AL Central, all of which have significant warts, will play well enough to take advantage anyway.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Chris Sale dominates Yankees in return from disabled list

Under normal circumstances, you get excited when a pitcher from your hometown team is throwing a perfect game or a no-hitter.

That wasn't the case for me Thursday night as I watched Chris Sale retire the first 17 men he faced, including nine strikeouts, in his return from the disabled list against the New York Yankees.

Sale was on a strict pitch count, although Sox manager Robin Ventura refused to say what it was. But you knew Sale was approaching that predetermined figure when Sox reliever Zach Putnam was warming up in the bullpen with the Yankees batting in the top of the sixth inning and nobody on base.

I knew if Sale made it through six innings without allowing a baserunner, Ventura would remove him from the game and then we'd have the meatheads lighting up the phone lines and rioting in the streets, screaming about a missed opportunity at a perfect game. The meatheads wouldn't understand that Sale hadn't pitched a game in over a month, and it's incumbent on the Sox to be careful with their ace -- who is still without question the most valuable player the team has in its organization. No way you're going to leave a pitcher who is just back from the DL out there for 100-plus pitches in pursuit of a no-hitter. No way.

I wanted to avoid listening to that moronic debate, so I was actually relieved when New York left fielder Zoilo Almonte singled sharply to center field with two outs in the sixth inning, ending Sale's run at perfection. The Sox lefty finished off the inning with a strikeout of Jacoby Ellsbury, and that cleared the way for Ventura to go to the bullpen without any controversy about pulling a pitcher who had a perfect game going.

Putnam, Daniel Webb and Ronald Belisario combined to cover the final nine outs. The Sox beat the Yankees, 3-2, and Sale improved his season record to 4-0.

Sale's final line: Six innings pitched, 10 strikeouts, no runs, one hit, no walks, 86 pitches, 54 of them for strikes. Sale threw first-pitch strike to 13 of the 19 men he faced. He had command of all of his pitches, and New York had little chance to score while he was on the mound. Aside from Almonte's single, there was maybe one other ball hit hard against Sale the whole night.

Best of all, Sale left the mound healthy and feeling good, which is the most important thing for the Sox moving forward.

Would the White Sox be able to part with Paul Konerko?

Baseball players rarely make farewell tours. For every Mariano Rivera -- who was still great in his last season -- there are tons guys who want to keep playing, but are told they can't cut it so pack it up.

White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko is adding more and more evidence to the case that he can't cut it. Since Jose Abreu has been out of the lineup, he's gone 2-for-15. Yes, both hits drove in runs, and yes, one of them was a two-run homer crushed to center at Kaufmann Stadium. That still leaves Konerko with a .133/.133/.333 batting line. That's after his .208/.259/.333 start as a part-time DH/pinch hitter.

Maybe it's hard to come off the bench and perform in sporadic duty. And maybe Konerko needs some time to settle back into a starting rhythm again. I think to believe those excuses you really have to ignore the fact that Paulie has been terrible since June of 2012.

If Konerko can't hold up to the rigors of everyday play anymore, and he can't be effective as a part-timer, he's got no value to the team outside of his role of ambassador, clubhouse leader, historical treasure, mascot, or whatever it is he was brought back for.

When this season looked for sure like it would be a lost one for the Sox, that might have been acceptable. But besides the fact that even at two games under .500, the Sox are still nominally in the playoff picture, the team just has better uses for Konerko's at-bats and roster spot than letting him take an extended bow before the fans.

They might want to use those at-bats to give Alejandro De Aza a better chance of righting his ship so he can be traded for something useful. Or the Sox might want to keep Marcus Semien's bat from atrophying on the bench.

If third base prospect Matt Davidson turns his season around at Triple-A Charlotte, he could begin his seasoning at the big league level later this year, and current third baseman Conor Gillaspie certainly doesn't deserve to be pulled from the lineup. 

It's possible the Sox lose 10 in a row, or 15 of 20, or 20 of 25 and put an end to any idea of contending. And maybe that opens the door for trades of De Aza, Adam Dunn, Gordon Beckham and even Dayan Viciedo.

By that point, more younger players might have pushed themselves into the picture, like Micah Johnson. And despite their earlier MLB failures, it would probably be prudent of the Sox to give Jordan Danks and Josh Phegley more chances to try adjusting to a higher level with both not having much left to prove at Triple-A.

As unlikely as it might be that Danks or Phegley can stick, there's a chance they might, while one way or another, this is going to be the end for Konerko.

It'd be nice if it didn't come down to another situation like the one the Sox were in 21 years ago when they unceremoniously released Carlton Fisk. Fisk believed up until the end that he could still play, though I don't think many other people believed it. Fisk had played well as recently as Konerko has.

Perhaps Konerko could pick his own spot. As a long-time team fixture, he deserves to do that more than John Kruk did during his season with the Sox.

Maybe the decision is going to be for everyone to not make a decision. To wait for an injury, or just play out the string. And maybe the Sox just want to give Konerko that luxury more than they want to move on.