Thursday, March 12, 2015

White Sox should send Carlos Rodon to Triple-A to start the season

The White Sox announced on Wednesday that ace left-hander Chris Sale (broken foot) will not be ready to pitch on Opening Day. This will only fuel speculation that top prospect Carlos Rodon has a chance to make the team's 25-man roster coming out of spring training.

The Sox should resist that urge. They should instead send Rodon to Triple-A Charlotte to begin the season.

And I'm not just saying that because Rodon allowed three runs on five hits in 2.1 innings in Wednesday's 4-4 tie with the Texas Rangers. Even if the left-hander had struck out all 12 batters he faced Wednesday, it wouldn't change my opinion.

There are a couple good reasons not to rush Rodon. First and foremost, there's the business side of the game. Michael Bauman at Grantland (no relation) did a great job of explaining the service time factor in this article about Cubs prospect Kris Bryant. The same principle with Bryant applies to the situation with the White Sox and Rodon:

"There are about 183 calendar days in a major league season; anyone who spends 172 or more of those days on the active roster or major league disabled list is credited with a full year of service time, while players who spend less than that are credited with the fraction of the season they spent in the big leagues," Bauman wrote. "Service time progresses players toward three primary milestones: arbitration eligibility (which takes a little less than three years, depending on moving goalposts that aren’t worth explaining here), free agency (six years), and a pension (10 years)."

In simplest terms, this means Rodon needs to spend a few weeks in Charlotte this year. If he starts the season with the Sox and stays in the majors the whole year, he'll hit free agency after the 2020 season. But if the Sox keep him in Charlotte for just a little while longer, they'll have him under team control for one extra year -- the 2021 season.

A no-brainer, right? Seems like it to me.

Then, there's the baseball side of things. Rodon has great promise, but he is not a finished product. Most guys need three major league quality pitches to be in a team's starting rotation. Rodon slider is great; there's no doubting that. He's got a good fastball, although his command could use a little polish. The changeup, while improving, is not there yet. Why not let him continue to work on that third pitch in the minors? It's the right thing to do, regardless of Sale's status.

Senior Vice President Ken Williams made it sound like Sale is on track to make his season debut April 12 -- the fifth game of the season. If Sale stays on that timetable, the Sox won't need to take an extra starter with them when they break camp. Sale would simply pitch fifth in the rotation instead of first.

And even if Sale falls a little behind that schedule, and the Sox need to reach into their depth for a starting pitcher, I don't see the harm in giving a veteran like Scott Carroll or Brad Penny one or two starts in April.

I know watching Carroll or Penny pitch doesn't excite anyone, but if it's the right thing for Rodon's development and his future with the organization -- and it is -- then that's what you do.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Tuesday thoughts: Micah Johnson, John Danks, Michael Taylor

So far, so good for White Sox prospect Micah Johnson this spring.

Johnson, the organization's preferred candidate to start at second base this season, raised his Cactus League average to .500 with a 4-for-4 performance in Tuesday's 6-2 win over the Kansas City Royals. The left-handed batter has hits in each of his last six at-bats, dating back to Monday.

Here's what I like about Johnson's four-hit game: The hits came against four different pitchers, and all four of those Kansas City pitchers are big leaguers: Jeremy Guthrie, Greg Holland, Jason Frasor and Brandon Finnegan. Johnson wasn't just padding his stats against pitchers we're never going to hear from again.

I still have a healthy amount of skepticism with regard to Johnson's readiness to play second base in the majors every day -- he's never played in a regular-season game and still has to prove to me that he can stay healthy -- but it's nice to see him taking the early lead in the competition for the position.

I think all Sox fans would agree they'd rather see Johnson win the job than default to the fallback options at the position (Gordon Beckham, Emilio Bonifacio).

Sox keep Danks away from Kansas City hitters

Tuesday would have been John Danks normal day to pitch, but the Sox instead had the veteran left-hander pitch four innings in a simulated game. Prospect Tyler Danish got the start on the mound against the Royals.

This is smart because Danks' first start of the season will likely be against Kansas City. Why give Royals hitters any edge by letting them get a look at Danks' pitches in the spring?

In fact, Sox used nothing but minor leaguers and fringe roster pitchers in Tuesday's game -- Danish, Zach Phillips, Raul Fernandez, Scott Carroll and Eric Surkamp.

When you think about it, that makes a lot of sense. The Royals are a Central Division foe, one the Sox face all the time. There's no reason to let them see the better pitchers on the team when the games don't count.

You look for any little edge you can find in what is likely to be a balanced, competitive division race this summer.

Outfielder Taylor retires

The Sox announced on Tuesday that outfielder Michael Taylor has retired from baseball.

The 29-year-old former top prospect was a longshot to make the roster, and after 3,765 career plate appearances in the minor leagues, perhaps he had tired of long bus rides.

Taylor hit .306 at Triple-A Charlotte last year, and the Sox promoted him to the majors in September. Still, he had appeared in just 37 major league games with the A's and Sox over the past four years.

In 2010, Taylor was a highly regarded player in the Oakland organization, ranked as the 20th best prospect in the game by Baseball Prospectus. It never panned out for him.

Let Taylor's story be a reminder that prospects are only prospects, and most don't make it big, even those who are ranked highly on these lists by various publications.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

A reason not to fret about Chris Sale's injury: The early-season schedule

It was not good news earlier this week when the White Sox announced that ace left-hander Chris Sale would miss three weeks with an avulsion fracture in his right foot. The injury reportedly occurred at home when Sale was unloading his pickup truck, and it seems unlikely he'll be ready to start Opening Day when the Sox open the season at Kansas City.

Obviously, the Sox would like Sale to make 34 starts this season, but realistically, the team has to assume he'll miss his first two or three starts of the year as a result of this mishap.

But here's the good news: The schedule is set up as such that the Sox can get by with just four starting pitchers until April 21. There are three off-days the first 10 days of the season. Assuming Jeff Samardzija, Jose Quintana, John Danks and Hector Noesi all remain healthy and are ready to go when the bell rings in April, here's how the pitching rotation may work for the first two weeks of the season:

April 6 at Kansas City: Samardzija
April 7: Off-day
April 8 at Kansas City: Quintana
April 9 at Kansas City: Danks
April 10 vs. Minnesota: Noesi
April 11 vs. Minnesota: Samardjiza
April 12 vs. Minnesota: Quintana
April 13: Off-day
April 14 at Cleveland: Danks
April 15 at Cleveland: Noesi
April 16: Off-day
April 17 at Detroit: Samardzija
April 18 at Detroit: Quintana
April 19 at Detroit: Danks
April 20 vs. Cleveland: Noesi
April 21: vs. Cleveland: ?????

As you can see, the early-season off-days would allow the Sox to use their other four guys on regular rest during this stretch. Naturally, if Sale is ready before April 21, he's going to pitch. But it's at least somewhat comforting that the Sox aren't going to have to rush Carlos Rodon into the rotation, or force someone else who doesn't belong to start a couple games, if Sale's injury happens to linger until mid- to late April.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

White Sox manager Robin Ventura considers carrying 13 pitchers

The offseason and the start of spring training has been jovial and full of optimism for the White Sox and their fans, but here's the first thing I've heard in a while that makes my stomach a little queasy: Manager Robin Ventura is considering carrying 13 pitchers when the team comes north to start the season.

“You could take the other route where you bring an extra pitcher,” Ventura told ESPN's Doug Padilla. “With the versatility we have, we have some options on how we are going to go early in the year, with some days off and probably have some rainouts and things like that, but you want to be protected all the way around. Right now, we are pretty open to it.” 

I shudder.

You can see how this idea of roster construction got hatched. Assuming either Micah Johnson or Carlos Sanchez wins the starting second base job, the Sox will have two versatile players on their bench. Gordon Beckham can play three positions. Emilio Bonifacio can play six positions. With Bonifacio's ability to play the outfield and Beckham's ability to cover the infield positions, you can make a case that the Sox don't need a true fourth outfielder to take up the 25th spot on the roster. I understand the philosophy; I just disagree with it.

Ventura actually brought up the biggest reason for my disagreement: You have days off early in the season. In fact, the Sox have three scheduled off days before the season is even two weeks old. In addition, the weather stinks in April. It will be a huge upset if all the early-season games are played as scheduled in the upper Midwest. Is there going to be enough work for 13 pitchers? I don't think so. I don't see the Sox being in any danger of overworking their pitchers early in the season, even if they were to carry only 11 guys.

Moreover, the Sox have a solid top three in the rotation this year. Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana are expected to get the game into the seventh or eighth inning more times than not. We already know new closer David Robertson has the last three outs in the ninth. If things go according to plan, that means most days you need middle relief to cover about 3-6 outs a day. Do you really need seven relief pitchers who are not named Robertson to cover those 3-6 middle-inning outs? Not in my world.

One of the things I like about the Bonifacio addition is his ability to come off the bench, pinch run and steal a bag in a key situation. But when you have only two other position players on your bench, you have to be cautious about using a guy in a specialized role like that. Under this "13 pitchers" scenario, Bonifacio would be the only backup outfielder on the roster, so if the manager uses him situationally, he leaves himself with no other outfield option if a game goes extra innings, and he leaves himself with no protection in the event a player gets injured. For me, that's an uncomfortable scenario.

I just don't see a lot of benefit to this, especially when the "13th pitcher" would likely be one of Daniel Webb, Maikel Cleto and Eric Surkamp. Those guys were members of the hated and despised 2014 White Sox bullpen. Don't we want to see less of them, not more?

Thursday, February 19, 2015

White Sox spring training: Sizing up roster battles

White Sox pitchers and catchers are set to report to spring training Friday, so let's have a look at each position group and see where the roster battles lie.

For purposes of this discussion, we'll break the team up into five categories: starting pitchers, bullpen, catchers, infielders and outfielders. The numbers in parenthesis with each position group indicate how many players I'm anticipating will come north from that group.

1. Starting pitchers (5)
Roster locks: Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, Jose Quintana, John Danks
Competing for a spot: Hector Noesi, Carlos Rodon
Long shots: Brad Penny, Scott Carroll
Comments: The Sox have a top three that can compete with anybody in the American League in Sale, Samardzija and Quintana. Danks, despite his bloated salary ($15.75M) and bloated ERA (4.74), somehow managed to make 20 quality starts in 2014, so it's a given that he'll be in the rotation as a back-end innings eater. The question remains the fifth spot. Pitching coach Don Cooper is bullish on Noesi, who gave the Sox 27 starts last year and finished with a respectable 4.39 ERA after getting picked up on waivers in May. I'm skeptical the journeyman Noesi is any more than a stopgap measure until top prospect Rodon arrives, which could be as soon as midseason. But right now, Noesi has the inside track on the final spot. Carroll, who made 19 starts for the Sox last year, and Penny, a veteran reclamation project, would only make the roster in the event of an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart.

2. Bullpen (7)
Roster locks: David Robertson, Zach Duke, Jake Petricka
Competing for a spot: Javy Guerra, Dan Jennings, Zach Putnam, Daniel Webb, Maikel Cleto, Eric Surkamp
Long shots: Jesse Crain, Matt Albers
Injured: Nate Jones
Comments: We all feel like the Sox bullpen will be better with the addition of a firm ninth-inning option in Robertson, but everything else still needs to be sorted out this spring. We know Duke is on the roster as the primary left-handed reliever, and Petricka led the Sox with 14 saves last year and figures to settle into a more comfortable seventh- or eighth-inning role this season. The rest is up for grabs. The Sox traded for Jennings for a reason, so you figure he has the inside track on being the second left-hander. Putnam, another waiver claim who overachieved in 2014, set a team record by stranding 89 percent of his inherited runners (26 of 29) last year. You figure some regression is due, but he enters camp in good position. Guerra is also in good shape by virtue of his reasonable 2014 performance (2.92 ERA in 42 games) and relatively hefty salary ($938K). I wouldn't call Jennings, Putnam or Guerra a lock, but each of the three should be considered favorites to earn a roster spot. That leaves one spot left for Webb, Cleto or Surkamp, unless either Crain or Albers comes to camp healthy and unseats someone.

3. Catchers (2)
Roster lock: Tyler Flowers
Competing for a spot: Geovany Soto, George Kottaras
Long shots: Adrian Nieto, Rob Brantly
Comments: For better or for worse, Flowers is your starter. The pitcher like throwing to him, so at least there's that. I can't bring myself to expect much from his bat. Soto is the most accomplished of the potential backup options. I think he'll make the club if he's healthy and in shape. If not, that opens the door for Kottaras. Nieto handled the backup role last year, just because he was a Rule 5 pick who needed to remain on the 25-man roster the whole season. I think the organization realizes he needs to go back to the minor leagues and work on his game.

4. Infielders (7)
Roster locks: Jose Abreu, Adam LaRoche, Alexei Ramirez, Conor Gillaspie, Gordon Beckham, Emilio Bonifacio
Competing for a spot: Carlos Sanchez, Micah Johnson
Long shot: Leury Garcia
Comments: Most of this in place. Abreu and LaRoche will share first base and DH duties. Ramirez is your shortstop. Gillaspie is your primary third baseman. Bonifacio and Beckham are utility players, with Bonifacio figuring to play some in the outfield, as well. The only question is, who is the second baseman? Sanchez hit .250 in 28 games at the end of last year. We know he can handle the position defensively, but the speedy Johnson has the higher upside. Of course, Johnson is a question mark with the glove and has never proven he can stay healthy. I'd give Sanchez the inside track going into camp, although I think the organization would love it if Johnson would step up and seize the job. Garcia is still around, basically as injury insurance.

5. Outfielders (4)
Roster locks: Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Avisail Garcia
Competing for a spot: J.B. Shuck, Michael Taylor
Comments: The ranks got thin pretty quick here, didn't they? We know the starters: Cabrera in left, Eaton in center and Garcia in right. We don't know who the fourth outfielder is yet. Dayan Viciedo was released. Jordan Danks was claimed on waivers by the Philadelphia Phillies. Tony Campana blew out his ACL. That leaves Shuck in position to earn the job, because Taylor isn't much of an option, and there aren't any outfield prospects in the organization that you would consider major-league ready. If Shuck falters this spring, don't be surprised if the Sox go outside the organization to grab a backup outfielder.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Gordon Beckham returns to White Sox; Dayan Viciedo designated for assignment

The White Sox announced Wednesday they have agreed with infielder Gordon Beckham on a one-year, $2 million contract.

The club also designated outfielder Dayan Viciedo for assignment, after apparently failing to find any takers on the trade market.

Beckham, 28, was the Sox's first-round draft pick in 2008 and struggled with the bat throughout most of his five-plus seasons with the team. He was traded to the Los Angeles Angels on Aug. 21 and finished 2014 with a .226 average, 27 doubles, nine home runs and 44 RBIs.

We already know Beckham, a lifetime .245 hitter, isn't good enough with the bat to be an everyday second baseman. The good news is the Sox's intention seems to be to use him in a utility role.

“Adding Gordon improves the depth and flexibility of our roster,” Sox general manager Rick Hahn said in a statement. “We are thrilled to have him back. Like Emilio Bonifacio, Gordon brings the ability to play solid defense at multiple positions or play on an everyday basis should the need arise. This also gives [manager] Robin [Ventura] the ability to play matchups more effectively when setting the lineup.”

Ah, matchups.

Most of Beckham's critics probably didn't realize that even at his worst last season he could still hit left-handed pitching. Here are his slash lines from last year:

vs. LHP: .293/.349/.431
vs. RHP: .203/.242/.318

Beckham can hit lefties; Conor Gillaspie can hit righties. There's your third base platoon, Sox fans. We know Beckham is good enough defensively to play anywhere on the infield. His glove is a plus at second base, and it's no worse than average at third base. The Sox could even throw him at shortstop, his college position, in a pinch.

If fans put aside their bias, they can see this signing makes sense -- as long as Beckham is used in a utility role to maximize his strengths. If both Micah Johnson and Carlos Sanchez fail at second base this year and Beckham becomes the everyday player at that spot once more, well, that's not ideal. Cross your fingers and hope that doesn't happen.

With this move, the Sox are about to part ways with Viciedo. The 25-year-old hit .231 with 21 home runs and 58 RBIs last year. He's neither a good fielder nor a good baserunner, and his bat was simply never good enough to overcome his other weaknesses. There didn't seem to be any room for him on the Sox's 2015 roster, and apparently he has no trade value either.

Lastly, Beckham's return gives us another opportunity to cue up "Welcome Back Kotter." That's been happening a lot lately ...

Friday, January 23, 2015

White Sox reunite with Jesse Crain; add Geovany Soto to backup catcher derby

We've been talking a lot this week about former White Sox players returning to the team for a second tour of duty. It's perhaps fitting the Sox agreed Thursday to a minor-league contract with former relief pitcher Jesse Crain, who was on the South Side from 2011-13. More on that in a moment.

The other interesting name on the list of Sox minor-league non-roster invitees is former Cubs catcher Geovany Soto. The 2008 National League Rookie of the Year has never duplicated the success he had his first season in the big leagues with the Cubs, but if healthy, he has a legitimate shot of making the Sox roster as the second catcher.

Soto, 32, was limited to just 24 games last season due to knee and foot injuries. He also was arrested on a marijuana possession charge. Obviously, these are not good things, but it's also true Soto is the most accomplished player among those competing for the right to back up starting catcher Tyler Flowers.

Here are the numbers on the four guys in that mix. We'll include Soto's 2013 season numbers, since last year was pretty much a lost cause for him.

Soto:
2013 with Texas:.245/.328/.466, 9 HRs, 22 RBIs in 54 games
2014 with Texas/Oakland: .250/.302/.363, 1 HR, 11 RBIs in 24 games
Career: .248/.334/..436, 92 HRs

Rob Brantly
2014 with Miami: .211/.263/.265, 1 HR, 18 RBIs in 67 games
Career: .235/.298/.325

George Kottaras
2014 with 3 teams: .240/.355/.600, 3 HRs, 4 RBIs in 14 games
Career: .215/.326/.411

Adrian Nieto
2014 rookie season with Sox: .236/.296/.340, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs in 48 games

If all are healthy, who would you pick of this group? I think I'd take Soto. Nieto was in the backup role for all of 2014 because of his Rule 5 status. Most observers would agree a year at Triple-A would be good for his development.

Brantly bats left-handed, which is nice, but he's never shown he can hit major league pitching at all. Kottaras is the most experienced catcher other than Soto in the group, but he's been bouncing around from organization to organization. He was only in the bigs for 14 games last season. Naturally, he had a two-homer game against the White Sox as a member of the Cleveland Indians, but his career numbers are weaker than Soto's, as well.

If Soto can stay healthy and stop smoking marijuana, he has a chance to come north with the White Sox this year.

That brings us back to the 33-year-old Crain, who was excellent in his previous stint on the South Side. From 2011-13, he appeared in 156 games and compiled a 2.10 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 150 innings pitched.

He was enjoying the finest season of his career in 2013 -- an 0.74 ERA and 46 Ks in 37 innings -- when his shoulder started to bother him. Crain went on the disabled list, and with the Sox languishing in the standings, he was traded midseason to the Tampa Bay Rays.

Crain never threw a pitch for Tampa Bay the rest of the year and signed a free-agent deal with the Houston Astros the following offseason. Alas, he never threw a pitcher for the Astros, either, as shoulder issues continued to plague him.

Now, he's back for another kick at the can with the Sox, the last team he pitched for, on a minor-league deal. Certainly, he cannot be counted upon with his injury issues, but he would be a huge veteran help to the Sox bullpen if he could somehow regain his form.

At the very least, we owe Crain a playing of "Welcome Back Kotter":