Thursday, April 14, 2016

The 'Small Sample Size' song

Relevant at this time of year as fans and media overreact to hot or cold starts by various players or teams:


Tuesday, April 12, 2016

White Sox add to Minnesota's early misery; Twins drop to 0-7

Minnesota's Kyle Gibson had never lost to the Sox -- until Monday.
I was hoping the Minnesota Twins would win at least one game over the weekend against the Kansas City Royals. Not so much because I wanted the Royals to lose, but more because I didn't want the Twins to enter their three-game series against the White Sox this week winless.

I figure the longer a streak goes -- either a good streak or a bad one -- the more likely it is to end. The law of averages eventually kicks in.

So, I had a little bit of dismay Sunday when the Royals erased a 3-1 deficit in the ninth inning and went on to beat the Twins, 4-3, in 10 innings. That meant Minnesota would enter its home opener Monday against the Sox with an 0-6 mark. The Twins were sending right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson to the mound. Gibson had a 4-0 career record against the Sox, including a 2.13 ERA.

The Twins were due for a win, and the Sox were facing a pitcher they never hit well. Gulp.

It turns out I had no reason to worry. Jose Quintana outpitched Gibson, and the Sox beat Minnesota 4-1, sending the Twins to 0-7.

This was a methodical win for the Sox, who improved to 5-2. They took the lead early, added to their lead, and then protected it. Brett Lawrie had an RBI single in the second inning. Austin Jackson narrowly missed a grand slam in the fourth -- the ball hooked just foul -- moments before delivering a two-run single up the middle. Todd Frazier's RBI double in the ninth accounted for the final Sox run.

Quintana fired six innings of one-run ball. Matt Albers worked a scoreless seventh. Zach Duke and Nate Jones combined for an easy eighth. Closer David Robertson worked a 1-2-3 ninth for his third save of the season. For the Sox, that's how you draw it up.

The Twins, however, did not plan on being 0-7 at this stage. Yes, there are 155 games to go, but history tells us Minnesota is a long shot to get out of this hole.

Of the 10 previous teams to start the season 0-7 in American League history, none have recovered to post a winning record, let alone make the playoffs. The 2008 Detroit Tigers started 0-7 and ended up 74-88. No team has ever reached 75 wins after starting 0-7. On average, teams that start 0-7 end up with 60 wins.

There are three teams in MLB history that have started 0-6 and recovered to make the playoffs: the 1974 Pittsburgh Pirates, the 1995 Cincinnati Reds and the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays. All three of those clubs picked up their first win of the season in their seventh game.

Make no mistake, the Twins are still likely to win one soon. Odds are the Sox will not sweep this current three-game set. But even after that first win comes, Minnesota will be fighting history the rest of the way as a result of its historically bad first week.

Friday, April 8, 2016

I went to Opening Day at U.S. Cellular Field, and it snowed

How's this for baseball weather?:


That was the scene at U.S. Cellular Field on Friday before the White Sox's first home game of the season against the Cleveland Indians. The game resulted in a 7-1 Cleveland victory. More on that in minute, but five years from now, when people talk about Opening Day 2016 the main thing they are going to remember was the bone-chilling cold (temperatures in the 30s, wind chills in the 20s) and snow.

It did stop snowing for a little while, and the ballpark looked great for pregame ceremonies:


And, did I mention this new center field scoreboard is awesome?


On the field, there weren't many positives for the Sox, who fell to 3-2 with their worst performance of the season's first week.  We should have seen it coming. John Danks entered Friday's action with a 5-14 record, with a 5.29 ERA, in 26 career starts against Cleveland.

Make it 5-15 in 27 starts.

Danks gave up seven runs, five earned, over five innings pitched. He sucked the life out of the sellout crowd by giving up three runs in the top of the first inning, plus two more in the second. The "here we go again" feeling that was so prominent in the ballpark during these last three losing seasons of 2013-2015 was back again immediately with the Sox down 5-0 an inning and a half into the home portion of the schedule.

There were physical mistakes (Alex Avila's throwing error in the first inning that cost the Sox two runs) and mental mistakes (Avisail Garcia getting picked off first base with runners on first and second and one out, down 5-0, in the bottom of the second inning). There was an alarming lack of offense -- only three hits all day.

Todd Frazier went 2-for-3 with a solo home run, a single and a walk. Beyond that, the only offense was a single by Austin Jackson. This marked the second straight year the Sox were limited to just three hits in their home opener. Last year's 6-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins was utterly forgettable and sadly a predictor of misery to come.

We can only hope today's performance is an aberration and not a foretelling of another bad season on the South Side.

The only other good thing we can say? Well, Dan Jennings and Zach Putnam combined for four scoreless innings in relief of Danks. If not for that, it would have been worse than 7-1.

Without question, this game was one to forget, unless you're talking about the weather.

Thursday, April 7, 2016

White Sox offense in need of some more hits

Oakland ace Sonny Gray beat the Sox on Wednesday.
Unrealistic dreams of an undefeated season died Wednesday night as the White Sox lost, 2-1, to the Oakland A's.

Oakland ace Sonny Gray fired seven innings of one-run ball, and relievers John Axford and Ryan Madson closed out the first win of the year for the A's.

Gray is one of the best in the league, so fans should not fret too much about losing a game to him, although a fine effort by Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon (7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 6 Ks, 1 BB) went to waste Wednesday night.

That said, it would be nice to see the Sox have a breakout game offensively sometime in the next few days. Despite a 2-1 record, most of the lineup has started cold. Leadoff hitter Adam Eaton has reached base nine times in his first 13 plate appearances (7 hits, 1 BB, 1 HBP), but he's only scored two runs because so many others have had a slow first three games:

Jimmy Rollins: 2-for-12 (but at least one of the hits was a game-winning homer)
Todd Frazier: 2-for-12 (but at least one of the hits was a three-run homer)
Melky Cabrera: 1-for-11
Avisail Garcia: 1-for-11
Brett Lawrie: 2-for-11

The Sox have a .238/.297/.337 team slash despite a red-hot start by Eaton (.636/.692/.818). They've been held off the scoreboard in 22 of their 27 offensive innings against an Oakland staff that is lacking once you get past Gray.

There's been a lot of talk all offseason about Frazier providing protection for Jose Abreu, and I remain confident that Frazier will do his job. But can Cabrera and/or Garcia provide adequate protection for Frazier?

In the sixth inning Wednesday, Eaton was on second base with one out. Abreu grounded out for the second out, and then Frazier was pitched around with first base open to bring Cabrera to the plate. Gray retired Cabrera on a weak comebacker to close the inning unscathed.

To me, Cabrera and Garcia are going to be the keys to the Sox offense this year. I think Abreu and Frazier will perform as they always do. But will the offense die once the lineup gets down to the 5 and 6 spots? That question remains unanswered.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Jimmy Rollins, Todd Frazier deliver for White Sox

Jimmy Rollins' first home run with the White Sox was a game-winner.
Maybe 37-year-old Jimmy Rollins has a little something left after all.

With the score tied at 4 with two outs in the top of the ninth inning Tuesday, the veteran shortstop got a 2-2 fastball from Oakland closer Sean Doolittle and pounded it over the left-field fence for a solo home run that lifted the White Sox to a 5-4 victory.

Doolittle's fastball was clocked at 94 mph, so at this point I think we can safely say Rollins still has some bat speed.

Rollins wasn't the only newcomer to make an impact in Tuesday's win. Todd Frazier hit a three-run homer in the top of the fifth inning that put the Sox ahead 3-1 at that time.

The thing that was impressive about these two home runs: Both came with two strikes and two outs. Frazier had just seen Oakland starter Chris Bassitt strike out Jose Abreu with breaking balls down. And Bassitt grabbed a strike on a curve ball to get ahead of Frazier 0-2. The Sox third baseman was ready for the second breaking ball that came his way, however, and even though it was down, he golfed it over the left-field wall for his first home run of the season.

Once again, this wasn't the cleanest victory for the Sox. Nate Jones let a 4-2 lead get away in the eighth, costing starting pitcher Jose Quintana a win. But Rollins bailed Jones out with the home run, and David Robertson worked a 1-2-3 ninth inning for his second save in as many games.

Would you believe it if I told you the Sox have started 2-0 in four of the past five seasons? I guess that's a commentary on how being 2-0 doesn't mean much in the big picture, because the Sox haven't made the playoffs in any of those seasons.

In fact, the last time the Sox were two games over .500 at any point was April 15, 2014, when they were 8-6 two weeks into the year.

The Sox have not been three games over .500 since they concluded the 2012 season with an 85-77 record.

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

White Sox get gift-wrapped win on Opening Day

Chris Sale got the win in Monday's season opener.
White Sox manager Robin Ventura said his team's 4-3 win over the Oakland A's on Monday night "wasn't pretty."

In fact, I'd say Oakland gifted the game to the Sox, who were no doubt happy to accept the charitable donation on Opening Day.

The Sox scored all four of their runs on four hits in the third inning, but two costly Oakland errors (and one egregious misread in the outfield) aided the South Siders' cause.

A's starter Rich Hill walked Austin Jackson with one out, and then made an errant pickoff throw that allowed Jackson to advance to third. Oakland center fielder Billy Burns then misplayed a drive off the bat of Adam Eaton into an RBI triple that produced the first Sox run of the season.

Jimmy Rollins singled to score Eaton, and Jose Abreu doubled to give the Sox runners at second and third with one out. Hill rallied to strike out Todd Frazier, and appeared to be on his way to limiting the Sox to just two runs when Melky Cabrera hit a routine grounder to shortstop. However, Oakland shortstop Marcus Semien's throw was high and wide of the bag, and first baseman Mark Canha missed the ball. Rollins scored easily, and Abreu hustled home to make it 4-0.

That's all the Sox would need, but that doesn't mean it wasn't interesting. Ace Chris Sale handed three runs right back to the A's in the bottom of the third inning. It was an odd performance for Sale, who struck out eight over seven innings and got the win. He was his dominant self in every inning but the third:

Sale in the third inning: 1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 Ks, 34 pitches
Sale in all other innings: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 Ks, 70 pitches

The Sox bullpen closed this one out, but not without some drama. Despite having better options available, Ventura used Jake Petricka to start the bottom of the eighth inning, and Petricka walked the leadoff batter, Jed Lowrie. Zach Duke was then summoned to face left-handed hitting Josh Reddick, and he retired him on a comebacker. Finally, Nate Jones came on to retire two hitters with the tying run in scoring position. Jones struck out Khris Davis on a nasty slider to end the frame, leaving fans to wonder why Jones didn't start the eighth inning in the first place.

Closer David Robertson walked the speedy Coco Crisp to lead off the bottom of the ninth, but retired the next three hitters to earn the save. Brett Lawrie made a nice play on a grounder by Yonder Alonso to secure the final out.

Offensively, the Sox knocked Hill out early, but then could not score in 6.1 innings against the Oakland bullpen. Two baserunners were picked off (Eaton in the first, Lawrie in the ninth), and two hitters (Cabrera and Dioner Navarro) popped out on bunt attempts.

By no means was this a clean win for the Sox, but it's a win nonetheless. A year ago, the Sox started the season 0-4, so it's probably a mistake for Sox fans to complain too loudly today as they woke up to a 1-0 record.

Monday, April 4, 2016

White Sox sign pitcher Miguel Gonzalez; Jerry Sands makes Opening Day roster

Miguel Gonzalez
Catching up on a couple of roster moves from over the weekend ...

The White Sox on Sunday signed pitcher Miguel Gonzalez to a minor league deal.

Gonzalez, 31, has a career record of 39-33 with a 3.82 ERA. However, he is coming off a bad season with the Baltimore Orioles. He went 9-12 with a 4.91 ERA in 26 starts in 2015. His fastball averaged about 92 mph last season, but reports indicate he never topped 90 mph this spring. The Orioles decided they had seen enough and released him Friday.

The Sox will send him to Charlotte and hope he regains his lost velocity. This also is a sign the team might not be as confident in Mat Latos as they are claiming to be. Latos pitched four shutout innings in a 5-3 Sox exhibition win over the San Diego Padres on Friday, but he once again ran out of gas in the fifth -- allowing three runs.

Gonzalez could be another stopgap option if Latos falters.

The Sox also finalized their 25-man roster by reassigning pitcher Phillippe Aumont, first baseman Travis Ishikawa, center fielder Jacob May and catcher Hector Sanchez to minor league camp.

That means outfielder Jerry Sands surprisingly made the club. I was not overly impressed by Sands in spring training -- he posted a .212/.263/.404 slash line with three home runs and 11 RBIs in 52 at-bats.

Sands historically cannot hit right-handers, but the Sox apparently like his .292 career batting average and .846 career OPS against left-handed pitchers. The South Siders were woeful offensively against lefties in 2015, posting a .645 team OPS. Management must believe Sands can help improve that figure.