Monday, January 27, 2020

Rick Hahn continues to talk like a lawyer at SoxFest

Rick Hahn
Maybe I'm a bad White Sox fan. I won't allow general manager Rick Hahn to have his "victory lap."

I don't care if he "won the offseason." Until the team has a winning season *on the field* under his leadership, I'm not going to give him credit for much of anything.

So, I wasn't of the mindset to give him his round of applause at SoxFest this weekend. I didn't boo him when he was introduced, but I didn't cheer him either.

And I didn't lob him a softball question during the town hall with him and manager Rick Renteria on Friday night at McCormick Place.

When I stood before the crowd, I noted the Sox have a top-heavy farm system. The top four prospects -- Luis Robert, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal -- all are quite good. So good that we expect to see three of the four in Chicago this season. Then, there's a steep drop-off.

Quick, can you name the No. 5 prospect in the Sox organization?

My question for Hahn on this topic was twofold. First, is he concerned that he won't have the prospect capital to get the "finishing piece" at the trading deadline, should the moon and stars align and the Sox find themselves in contention going into the second half of the season?

Second, is it a point of organizational emphasis to improve in the draft? After all, most of these top young players we're talking about have been acquired one of two ways -- through the trades of topnotch major league talent, or tanking to get a high draft pick.

If this rebuild is truly going to work, don't the Sox have to hit on more of their second- and third-round picks?

Hahn basically told me he's not concerned about either of these things. He feels the lack of minor league depth is mostly attributable to injuries. It is true that several prospects have had injuries, including Dane Dunning, Zack Burdi, Jimmy Lambert and Luis Basabe.

The general manager expressed optimism that as guys get healthy, the system will prove to be much deeper than it seems. I'd like to believe that, but with the track record the Sox have, I'm not going to believe it until I see it. Citing injuries is always an irrefutable argument. It's not as if we can deny that they occurred.

On the second point, Hahn noted that a recent report found that the Sox rank second in all of baseball for the decade of 2010-19 in terms of WAR by drafted players. This is true, but let's understand that most of that WAR is tied up in just a handful of guys.

Chris Sale's career WAR is 45. Marcus Semien's career WAR is 20, and while he's a former Sox draft pick, he didn't blossom until he was traded to Oakland. Tim Anderson's career WAR is 10. Nobody else the Sox have drafted in the past decade has a career WAR above 6. For the record, the oft-injured Carlos Rodon is the next-best guy on this list.

Does that sound like a good draft record to you?

Once again, top-heavy, a few big hits, but a lot of misses. Hahn insisted his draft guys are doing their job. But for me, it's just unfortunate that Anderson is the only former Sox No. 1 draft pick who is actually helping at the big league level at present time. We need to see more of these homegrown guys come up and deliver. Let's hope Madrigal does that this season.

I'm sorry, but I can't help but be cynical about a GM whose record is 491–642 over seven seasons.

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Hall of Fame thoughts: Derek Jeter and Larry Walker

Derek Jeter
Does it really matter who the one person is who didn't vote for Derek Jeter in this year's Hall of Fame balloting?

I am not among the righteously indignant who needs to know the answer to the question. I also don't care why that person didn't vote for Jeter. All that really matters is the former New York Yankees shortstop got 99.7 percent of the vote, easily clearing the 75 percent threshold for election, and there's certainly no shame in that.

Maybe I'm not bothered by this because I was never a huge Jeter fan. Don't get me wrong: The guy is the best offensive shortstop I've seen in my lifetime, bar none. Through the years, I simply got tired of ESPN analysts insisting that Jeter was a great defensive player, when he was merely adequate at his position.

Again, nothing wrong with being adequate. But it's not unfair or wrong to say Jeter didn't stand out for his defense.

What set him above the crowd was his bat. In the past century, Jeter's 96.3 offensive WAR is the best among shortstops by a wide margin -- Robin Yount's 83.1 is second.

Jeter had eight 200-hit seasons. No other shortstop in my lifetime has had more than four. Jeter had nine seasons of 120 OPS-plus or better. He batted .300 or better 12 times. No other shortstop in my lifetime has batted .300 more than six times. (There are three that have done it six times: Nomar Garciaparra, Alan Trammell and Alex Rodriguez.)

Jeter's career OPS-plus is 115. That's even better than Cal Ripken Jr. (112), who is the second-best offensive shortstop I've seen in my lifetime.

So, yeah, Jeter was an easy Hall pick because he was just tremendous, historically great, with a bat in his hands. Just don't try to tell me how allegedly awesome he was with the glove. I won't buy it.

Joining Jeter in the Hall is Larry Walker, the former Montreal Expos, Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals outfielder. This was Walker's 10th and final time on the ballot, and here's the thing that's so curious about his election: Only four years ago, he received just 15.5 percent of the vote.

This week, he cleared the 75 percent threshold by six votes. That's a slim margin, but it counts. It's just kind of strange how people didn't think Walker was a Hall of Fame four years ago, but now they do. He's still the same man; his career accomplishments have not changed.

Walker is a three-time batting champion who finished his career with a .313/.400/.565 slash line. He was the National League MVP with the Rockies in 1997, when he hit .366 with a league-best 49 homers and 130 RBIs. He also won the Gold Glove in right field that year, one of seven times in his career he earned that honor.

The main knock on Walker? He played a lot of his career at the offensive paradise known as Coors Field in Denver. No doubt that career .965 OPS benefited from the thin mountain air, but the thing is, Walker's .865 career OPS on the road is still higher than several notable Hall of Famers, including Ken Griffey Jr. (.860), Dave Winfield (.841), Eddie Murray (.838), Rickey Henderson (.836) and Tony Gwynn (.835), among others.

Would I have voted for Walker? Ehh, probably. I think playing in Montreal and Colorado for most of his career hurt his profile. If he had played in an East Coast media market, chances are he wouldn't have been waiting 10 years to get into the Hall.

Friday, January 17, 2020

AL Central update: Josh Donaldson, Ivan Nova and ... Andrew Romine

Josh Donaldson
The Minnesota Twins struck out in their attempts to fortify their starting rotation with a big-name pitcher this offseason, so they did the next best thing: They made an already good lineup stronger by signing third baseman Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $92 million contract.

After two injury-plagued seasons in 2017-18, Donaldson signed a one-year, prove-it deal with the Atlanta Braves last offseason. Then he went out and proved it, playing 155 games and posting a .259/.379/.521 slash line with 37 home runs, 33 doubles and 94 RBIs. The Braves won 97 games and won the National League East.

Back on the open market this winter, Donaldson has cashed in with a big contract entering his age-34 season. He'll add to a lineup that mashed 307 home runs last season, and his glove at third base is still above average -- so that will help Minnesota's suspect pitching staff. Miguel Sano will move from third base to first base, where he will be less of a defensive liability.

And, bad news for the White Sox, because Donaldson owns them. He's a lifetime .333/.435/.686 hitter with 15 home runs in 44 games against the South Siders. The Sox will have to deal with him 18 games a year now, instead of the six or seven games a year when Donaldson was with the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics.

Donaldson did strike out a career-high 155 times in 2019, so maybe that's a sign that his bat has slowed a little bit. The Sox will have to hope the aging curve begins to take its toll on Donaldson -- and Minnesota's seemingly ageless designated hitter Nelson Cruz.

Nova signs with Detroit

Former Sox right-hander Ivan Nova has a new address in the AL Central. He signed a one-year deal worth $1.5 million with the Detroit Tigers. He can earn an additional $500,000 in incentives.

Nova, 33, made 34 starts for the Sox in 2019, going 11-12 with a 4.72 ERA. Hopefully, he's no longer good enough to make the inside knowledge he has of the Sox work for him.

Sox add utilityman Romine

Andrew Romine hasn't played in the majors since 2018, and hopefully, he won't play in the majors for the Sox either.

But the veteran utility infielder is in the Sox organization after signing a minor-league contract. He will earn $900,000 if he makes it to the big leagues this season.

Romine, 34, is a switch-hitter who has played in 581 career games for the Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners. His career slash line is .235/.291/.301 with 10 home runs in 1,323 plate appearances.

Hey, somebody has to play second base in Triple-A Charlotte once Nick Madrigal gets called to the majors, right?

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

White Sox (finally) designate Dylan Covey for assignment

We mentioned in an earlier blog that the White Sox would have to make a roster move when the signing of relief pitcher Steve Cishek became official.

That happened Tuesday as the club announced the signing and designated right-hander Dylan Covey for assignment.

I don't think too many Sox fans will be shedding tears over Covey's removal from the roster. Here are his numbers over the past three seasons:

2017: 0-7, 7.71 ERA in 18 games (12 starts)
2018: 5-14, 5.18 ERA in 27 games (21 starts)
2019: 1-8, 7.98 ERA in 18 games (12 starts)
Total: 6-29, 6.54 ERA in 63 games (45 starts)

In fairness to Covey, he was a Rule 5 draft pick, and expectations were low for him. Not to mention, he was miscast as a starting pitcher, when a long relief role may have best fit his skill set.

During a rebuilding period, you do expect to see pitchers such as this cycle through your roster. You just don't expect them to continue to get opportunities FOR THREE YEARS.

The main problem I have with Covey is he received more opportunities than he earned, and frankly, that's not his fault, because he's not the one who makes the roster decisions. It appears as though, finally, his time is up.

Saturday, January 11, 2020

White Sox avoid arbitration with five players

Alex Colome
The White Sox on Friday announced that they reached agreements with each of their remaining five arbitration-eligible players. Here's how the contracts break down for the 2020 season:

RHP Alex Colome: $10,532,500
RF Nomar Mazara: $5.56M
LHP Carlos Rodon: $4.45M
UTIL Leury Garcia: $3.25M
RHP Evan Marshall: $1.1M

It's always good to avoid going to court with arbitration-eligible players. Those hearings are never fun, because they require the club to highlight why a player isn't worth the money he's asking for. That creates animosity and bad feelings that can last throughout a season.

So, it's just best to come to an agreeable number and move forward. That's what the Sox have done with these five players.

Encarnacion deal becomes official

The Sox also officially announced the signing of veteran designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion to a one-year, $12 million contract.

One other note on Encarnacion: According to the latest addition of Baseball Digest, he hit the second-most home runs of any Major League player during the decade spanning 2010-19 with 335. Only Nelson Cruz (346 home runs), currently with the Minnesota Twins, hit more.

Encarnacion also ranked third over the past decade with 956 RBIs. Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels led all hitters with 963 RBIs, while Cruz ranked second with 961.

Hopefully, the 37-year-old Encarnacion still has some homers and RBIs left in him.

Medeiros outrighted

To make room on the roster for Encarnacion, the Sox designated left-handed pitcher Kodi Medeiros for assignment. Medeiros was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in the middle of the 2018 season in exchange for reliever Joakim Soria.

Medeiros cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Charlotte.

The Sox's 40-man roster is at maximum capacity, and someone else will have to be dropped when the signing of relief pitcher Steve Cishek becomes official.

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

White Sox sign relief pitcher Steve Cishek to one-year deal

Steve Cishek
The White Sox on Tuesday moved to increase their bullpen depth by signing veteran relief pitcher Steve Cishek to a one-year, $6 million contract.

Cishek, 33, will earn $5.25 million in 2020. The deal includes an option for 2021 worth $6.75 million, with a $750,000 buyout -- thus the $6 million guaranteed.

The right-hander spent the past two seasons with the Cubs. He appeared in 70 games in 2019, going 4-6 with a 2.95 ERA and seven saves. He struck out 57 and walked 29 with a 1.203 WHIP over 64 innings pitched.

Let's discuss the pluses and minuses of this signing in 3-up, 3-down format.

3 up

1. An ERA below 3.00 for four consecutive seasons. That 2.95 ERA in 2019 represents the *worst* season Cishek has had in recent memory. Over the past four years, his ERAs have been 2.81, 2.01, 2.18 and 2.95, respectively. Even if he regresses, he has a higher floor that some of the other candidates for the Sox bullpen, such as Carson Fulmer and Jose Ruiz.

2. Experience. Cishek is a veteran of 10 MLB seasons, and he's appeared in 572 games. His career ERA is 2.69, and while he likely won't be asked to close for the Sox, he has 132 saves lifetime. This is somebody who has been in his share of high-leverage situations. There's no reason he can't be placed in a seventh- or eighth-inning role.

3. Rubber arm. Cishek appeared in 150 games over the past two seasons, including a ridiculous 80 appearances in 2018. He's pitched in 60 or more games six times during his career. That reliability has to be respected.

3 down

1. A declining strikeout rate. Cishek struck out 10.0 batters per nine innings with the Cubs in 2018, but that declined to 8.0 batters per nine innings last season. His career mark is 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, so he performed below his norms in 2019. There may be a little less swing-and-miss in his game going forward.

2. Overuse. I don't care who you are, 150 appearances is a ton over two years. In a way, it's a testament to Cishek that his former manager, Joe Maddon, trusted him that often. But sooner or later, that kind of usage has to take its toll. Perhaps that concern is among the reasons Cishek is only getting one year guaranteed on the open market.

3. An increasing home run rate. Cishek gave up 1.0 home runs per nine innings in 2019, which was the second-highest rate of his career. His career mark is 0.6 home runs per nine innings, which is the exact figure he was at during the 2018 season. Of course, to be fair, the ball was juiced last summer, so a lot of pitchers around the league saw an increase in their home run rate.

With the addition of Cishek, I think we can take a good guess at seven of the eight spots in the Sox bullpen. Here's how it most likely looks today:

Left-handers: Aaron Bummer, Jace Fry
Right-handers: Alex Colome, Kelvin Herrera, Cishek, Evan Marshall, Jimmy Cordero, ??????

Here are some candidates to fill in those question marks: Fulmer, Ruiz, Dylan Covey, Zack Burdi, Matt Foster and Ian Hamilton.