There are two ways to look at the five pitchers the White Sox selected in the 2020 MLB Draft. Glass half full: They got two of the top 18 prospects in the draft. Glass half empty: Well, those two guys better pan out, because those other three guys are nothing special.
Believe it or not, the highest-rated player the Sox took in this draft was the guy they took in the *second* round. First-round pick Garrett Crochet was rated 18th overall by MLB Pipeline, while second-round pick Jared Kelley was ranked as the 12th-best prospect in the draft.
How did this happen? Well, let's go over it.
Kelley, a 6-foot-4, 225-pound right-handed pitcher out of Refugio High School in Texas, was considered the best high school arm in the draft. He can run his fastball up there in the high 90s, and he already has a changeup that he can use in games. The breaking ball is a work in progress, but this is a kid who has two pitches he can get outs with from day one.
Before the coronavirus ended high school baseball seasons everywhere, Kelley worked 12 innings this spring without allowing a hit. He struck out 34 batters and was named Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year.
So, how in the hell did the No. 12 prospect in the draft fall all the way to the Sox at pick No. 47? You could argue it's because of Kelley's lack of a slider, but the real reason is teams didn't think he would sign a contract. Kelley is committed to the University of Texas, and apparently, most clubs believed he intended to honor that commitment.
Not so fast, because the Sox are going to pay an overslot deal to sign him, and I'm sure they would not have chosen him had they not determined he was amenable to signing.
For those unfamiliar with the process, the Sox had a pool total of $7,764,800 that they could spend on their five draft picks. The No. 11 pick was slotted at $4,547,500, the No. 47 pick at $1,580,200 and so on.
The Sox might very well pay Crochet, the No. 11 overall pick, that $4,547,500. However, there's no question they are going to pay Kelley more than $1,580,200 to sign with them.
In fact, it's quite likely the Sox will pay most of that $7,764,800 on their first two picks. The other three guys? They will take whatever is left, and the Sox quite intentionally chose guys who aren't in position to command much:
Third round: Adisyn Coffey, RHP, Wabash Valley CC
Fourth round: Kade Mechals, RHP, Grand Canyon University
Fifth round: Bailey Horn, LHP, Auburn University
Coffey and Mechals weren't even ranked among the top 500 prospects in the draft. Mechals and Horn have already had Tommy John surgery. You can see how the Sox probably won't need much money to get these guys to sign on the dotted line.
Coffey is 21 years old, old for a junior college player, and he was slated to head to the University of Louisville, where he was going to pitch in the bullpen. But hey, he throws 95 mph and has a slider. Maybe that two-pitch mix will some day amount to something.
Mechals, a college senior, is a 5-foot-11 sinker-slider righty who is lauded for his command and pitchability. He had Tommy John surgery in May, so see you sometime in late 2021. Odds are, Mechals will be a guy who can provide competent innings as organizational filler in Triple-A Charlotte or Double-A Birmingham. A big-league career would be a pleasant surprise.
Horn, a 6-foot-2 lefty, is healthy after missing the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. He made four starts at Auburn before the pandemic this spring, and he struck out 27 batters against five walks over 17.1 innings. The fastball sits at 92-93 mph. The slider is his second-best pitch, followed by his change. I've heard his curveball described as "meh."
In case you were wondering, the slot values for the third through fifth rounds are as follows:
Third round: $733,100
Fourth round: $517, 400
Fifth round: $386,600
I'm guessing those last three guys sign for below these figures, so that the first two guys -- especially Kelley -- can sign above theirs. Maybe Horn has a case to get the slot value, but Coffey and Mechals will definitely be below slot.
Saturday, June 13, 2020
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
White Sox select left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet in first round
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| Garrett Crochet |
The Sox, of course, selected none of those five players. They took left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet out of the University of Tennessee.
I'm cool with taking a left-handed pitcher, even though Reid Detmers was my preference. Detmers was off the board when the Sox picked, however. He went No. 10 overall to the Los Angeles Angels.
When Crochet was chosen, the MLB Network guys compared him to Chris Sale. Um, OK.
I think there is some sort of rule that every player who gets picked in the first round has to be compared to someone who is a perennial All-Star, or somebody who is in the Hall of Fame. But I digress.
Crochet is a low-arm slot lefty with durability concerns. He's missed time in each of the past two seasons, with a broken jaw and then a sore shoulder. To be fair, the broken jaw came as a result of a line drive being hit right back at him, and what's a pitcher to do about that? That's just bad luck.
In any case, Crochet has the tools. His fastball sits at 96-100 mph, with the second-highest spin rate of any pitcher in the draft class. His slider is 70-grade, and it wipes out left-handed hitters. He's also got a changeup that he probably hasn't had to use much at Tennessee.
That actually sounds a little like Carlos Rodon when he came out of college. I'm not going to make the Sale comp, because Sale has three dominant pitches that he can throw for strikes in any count. Who has that? Not many people.
Crochet doesn't have great fastball command, and it's a pity he didn't get a chance to work on that this spring with the college baseball season being canceled.
Here's one way we might be able to draw a comparison between Crochet and Sale: Don't be surprised if Crochet comes to the big leagues quickly ... as a reliever. He's 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, and with his velocity and plus slider, he could probably pitch in certain situations out of the bullpen relatively quick. Given his arm angle and big body, he looks like a nightmare for lefty hitters.
Of course, with a first-round draft pick, you want more that just a situational pitcher. You want a cornerstone for your starting rotation. We'll see how the Sox plan to develop Crochet over the next year to 18 months.
Tuesday, June 9, 2020
5 players the White Sox could draft in the first round
The MLB Draft will be held Wednesday night, and the White Sox own the 11th overall selection. Who will they pick?
Under normal circumstances, you always say take the best player available, regardless of position, right? This isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where you're drafting for need and looking for immediate impact. In baseball, you figure even the best players available in the draft are a couple of seasons away from making a meaningful contribution, so it's folly to pick someone to address a need -- how can you guess what your needs will be two or three years from now?
Well, the Sox are in a unique situation. They have several young core position players under team control for the long term. Look at the roster, and you can find long-term solutions either already in place or on the way at first base, second base, shortstop, third base, left field and center field. The Sox also have an abundance of power right-handed starting pitchers.
You have to believe and hope that this core is still going to be around in two or three years, so the Sox might actually benefit from drafting for positions that don't have a long-term solution.
How about a young catcher? Yasmani Grandal is 31, and nobody really believes Zack Collins is the heir apparent anymore. How about a left-handed pitcher to complement the righties in the rotation? Maybe a left-handed bat? Aside from the switch-hitting Yoan Moncada, there aren't a lot of power sources from the left side in the lineup. Or, maybe the team needs to address its lack of middle infield depth.
With those things in mind, here are five guys the Sox could draft at No. 11 on Wednesday night:
1. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville: This 20-year-old pitcher is not overpowering, which is why he may slip down to the 11th spot in the draft, but he is widely considered the most polished college pitcher available. His fastball sits in the low 90s with good command. His curve is a plus pitch, and he's got a changeup too. He projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he could be a nice complement to a staff that is right-handed heavy.
2. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas: The Sox have two outfielders who are expected to be a part of the long-term plan in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. Both are right-handed bats. How about a left-handed bat to fill out the trio? Maybe Kjerstad can be that guy. He hit 37 home runs in 150 games at Arkansas. His college K rate (22%) is a little high, but the power that's needed to play a corner outfield spot is there.
3. Patrick Bailey, C, N.C. State: Grandal is under contract for three more years after this one, but there's nobody in the pipeline who looks like a candidate to replace him. So perhaps the switch-hitting Bailey is a fit. He's seen as a bat-first guy, but he's thought to be an adequate receiver with a good arm. Unlike Collins, the consensus seems to be that Bailey can stick at catcher as a professional.
4. Robert Hassell, OF, Independence (Tenn.) HS: The Sox have a long-standing reputation of playing it safe by taking college players, but if they want to gamble on a high school kid, they could do worse than Hassell. Some think he's the best high school hitter in this year's class, and if he's not, he's the second-best. Again, this is a left-handed hitter, something in short supply in the Sox's system. The hit tool is considered better than the power tool at this point, which you'd expect from an 18-year-old kid. Obviously, this would be a longer-term project.
5. Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS: Maybe the Sox take the local kid? Howard would be a longer-term project, but maybe he's ready for a shot about the time Tim Anderson reaches free agency. Howard projects as the best defensive shortstop in the draft. He's a plus athlete at 6-foot-2, 185 pounds, and most scouts say he's got the bat speed to hit for power one day. This is not a player who is a candidate for a position change. He's a shortstop, and he's a South Sider. He might be a reach at 11, but he's a definite first-rounder.
Of course, now that I've offered this opinion, the Sox will select someone who I haven't mentioned.
Under normal circumstances, you always say take the best player available, regardless of position, right? This isn't like the NFL or the NBA, where you're drafting for need and looking for immediate impact. In baseball, you figure even the best players available in the draft are a couple of seasons away from making a meaningful contribution, so it's folly to pick someone to address a need -- how can you guess what your needs will be two or three years from now?
Well, the Sox are in a unique situation. They have several young core position players under team control for the long term. Look at the roster, and you can find long-term solutions either already in place or on the way at first base, second base, shortstop, third base, left field and center field. The Sox also have an abundance of power right-handed starting pitchers.
You have to believe and hope that this core is still going to be around in two or three years, so the Sox might actually benefit from drafting for positions that don't have a long-term solution.
How about a young catcher? Yasmani Grandal is 31, and nobody really believes Zack Collins is the heir apparent anymore. How about a left-handed pitcher to complement the righties in the rotation? Maybe a left-handed bat? Aside from the switch-hitting Yoan Moncada, there aren't a lot of power sources from the left side in the lineup. Or, maybe the team needs to address its lack of middle infield depth.
With those things in mind, here are five guys the Sox could draft at No. 11 on Wednesday night:
1. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville: This 20-year-old pitcher is not overpowering, which is why he may slip down to the 11th spot in the draft, but he is widely considered the most polished college pitcher available. His fastball sits in the low 90s with good command. His curve is a plus pitch, and he's got a changeup too. He projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he could be a nice complement to a staff that is right-handed heavy.
2. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas: The Sox have two outfielders who are expected to be a part of the long-term plan in Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert. Both are right-handed bats. How about a left-handed bat to fill out the trio? Maybe Kjerstad can be that guy. He hit 37 home runs in 150 games at Arkansas. His college K rate (22%) is a little high, but the power that's needed to play a corner outfield spot is there.
3. Patrick Bailey, C, N.C. State: Grandal is under contract for three more years after this one, but there's nobody in the pipeline who looks like a candidate to replace him. So perhaps the switch-hitting Bailey is a fit. He's seen as a bat-first guy, but he's thought to be an adequate receiver with a good arm. Unlike Collins, the consensus seems to be that Bailey can stick at catcher as a professional.
4. Robert Hassell, OF, Independence (Tenn.) HS: The Sox have a long-standing reputation of playing it safe by taking college players, but if they want to gamble on a high school kid, they could do worse than Hassell. Some think he's the best high school hitter in this year's class, and if he's not, he's the second-best. Again, this is a left-handed hitter, something in short supply in the Sox's system. The hit tool is considered better than the power tool at this point, which you'd expect from an 18-year-old kid. Obviously, this would be a longer-term project.
5. Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS: Maybe the Sox take the local kid? Howard would be a longer-term project, but maybe he's ready for a shot about the time Tim Anderson reaches free agency. Howard projects as the best defensive shortstop in the draft. He's a plus athlete at 6-foot-2, 185 pounds, and most scouts say he's got the bat speed to hit for power one day. This is not a player who is a candidate for a position change. He's a shortstop, and he's a South Sider. He might be a reach at 11, but he's a definite first-rounder.
Of course, now that I've offered this opinion, the Sox will select someone who I haven't mentioned.
Monday, June 8, 2020
MLB's latest proposal for a 76-game season doesn't help matters
Reports that MLB would not offer another proposal for resuming play apparently were false, as the league apparently sent the players association a new proposal on Monday.
Too bad it isn't going to bring us much closer to starting the 2020 season.
Here are the particulars:
By way of comparison, if commissioner Rob Manfred unilaterally imposed a 50-game season with players receiving prorated salaries -- which Manfred is allowed to do according to a deal agreed upon in March -- players would receive only 31 percent of their usual salaries.
If you're a player, do you want to play 26 more games -- and risk your health 26 more times -- for such a small increase in pay? I'm guessing not.
The owners' first proposal included 82 games and a "sliding scale" of salaries, and the players' cut in this 76-game proposal is only percentage points higher.
In other words, the owners are basically proposing the same thing over and over again: 82 games, 50 games, 76 games, it doesn't matter. All of these proposals have the players receiving roughly the same amount of salary.
The owners want the public to believe they've moved, going from 50 games to 76, but in the players' eyes, they haven't really moved at all.
It's still hard to be optimistic that we'll see baseball this summer, even with the country crying out for entertainment and some normalcy.
Too bad it isn't going to bring us much closer to starting the 2020 season.
Here are the particulars:
- There would be a 76-game regular season, ending Sept. 27. Playoffs would conclude at the end of October, as per usual.
- Players would only be guaranteed 50% of their already prorated salaries for the regular season. If the postseason is completed without a "second wave" of COVID-19 in the fall, players would receive up to 75% of their prorated salaries.
- Draft pick compensation would be removed for the upcoming free agent class. In other words, if you sign a free agent next offseason, you don't have to forfeit a draft pick to the team that you signed the player away from. In the past, this rule has been cited as a reason why teams shy away from signing veteran free agents.
By way of comparison, if commissioner Rob Manfred unilaterally imposed a 50-game season with players receiving prorated salaries -- which Manfred is allowed to do according to a deal agreed upon in March -- players would receive only 31 percent of their usual salaries.
If you're a player, do you want to play 26 more games -- and risk your health 26 more times -- for such a small increase in pay? I'm guessing not.
The owners' first proposal included 82 games and a "sliding scale" of salaries, and the players' cut in this 76-game proposal is only percentage points higher.
In other words, the owners are basically proposing the same thing over and over again: 82 games, 50 games, 76 games, it doesn't matter. All of these proposals have the players receiving roughly the same amount of salary.
The owners want the public to believe they've moved, going from 50 games to 76, but in the players' eyes, they haven't really moved at all.
It's still hard to be optimistic that we'll see baseball this summer, even with the country crying out for entertainment and some normalcy.
Monday, June 1, 2020
114 games or 50 games? That's a drastic disparity ...
So, the Major League Baseball Players Association extended an offer to the owners over the weekend. Among the highlights:
But strangely, I'm reading reports this afternoon that owners are going to counter with an offer that includes only about 50 regular-season games.
Wow.
I guess that would be good for flawed, underdog teams like the White Sox. If you get hot for three weeks, you're in good shape to make the playoffs in an expanded format. But for just that reason, is there really much integrity in a baseball season that is that short?
Obviously, we won't get the meritocracy that comes with the usual 162-game schedule this year regardless, but don't you think we need to see at least a half-season of games to feel as though the results are legitimate?
- The union proposed a 114-game regular season -- a significant increase over the 82 games previously proposed by owners. The 114-game plan calls for Opening Day to occur June 30, with games running through Halloween, with postseason to follow. (How is that going to work in northern cities? Have you been in the Midwest in November?)
- The union offered up to $100 million in salary deferrals, should the postseason have to be canceled because of the public health crisis. The owners are very worried about a "second wave" of COVID-19 appearing in the fall that stops baseball from being played -- most of the money owners would make this season would come from postseason TV contracts.
- The union is amenable to expanded playoffs not only this year, but also in 2021. More playoff games, of course, means more revenues, and both sides want that.
But strangely, I'm reading reports this afternoon that owners are going to counter with an offer that includes only about 50 regular-season games.
Wow.
I guess that would be good for flawed, underdog teams like the White Sox. If you get hot for three weeks, you're in good shape to make the playoffs in an expanded format. But for just that reason, is there really much integrity in a baseball season that is that short?
Obviously, we won't get the meritocracy that comes with the usual 162-game schedule this year regardless, but don't you think we need to see at least a half-season of games to feel as though the results are legitimate?
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Universal DH is coming this year (if they play), and it will be here to stay in 2022
So, amid all the bickering about health concerns and economic issues, it hasn't been touched on much that the designated hitter will be used in both leagues should Major League Baseball get underway in 2020.
It makes a lot of sense to use the DH this season -- if things get going, I don't think there are going to be a lot of starting pitchers going deep into ballgames. When the pitcher's spot in the batting order would come up, a pinch hitter would be used more often than not. Why bother with that? Just put a regular hitter in the lineup and move on, right?
The DH will not be used in the National League in 2021, but there's little question it will be back in both leagues in 2022 as part of the next collective bargaining agreement.
Players are for it -- it prolongs careers and increases earnings for a lot of guys. And front offices are for it, as they don't desire to see high-priced pitchers doing things that are unnatural acts for them, such as swinging bats and running bases.
Traditionalists are going to have to face it on this: Pitchers can't hit worth a damn. In nearly 5,000 plate appearances last season, pitchers posted a .127 batting average and a .137 on-base percentage. They struck out 2,230 times. A pitcher making a plate appearance seems like a great time to use the bathroom or head to the refrigerator for a snack -- you aren't missing anything.
I have nothing more than my gut to go on with this, but I'm thinking pitchers were at least somewhat more competent at the plate when I was a kid -- in the 1980s. But with the increased specialization in the game, pitchers don't swing the bat much once they graduate high school. Heck, the designated hitter is universal in the minor leagues, so you see very few pitchers who can hit anymore.
Being an American League fan, I'm a DH proponent. The only thing I'll miss about pitchers hitting is the arguments between the fans of the two leagues. It's a unique and fun quirk of baseball that the two leagues have such a significant difference in rules, and it creates a lot of discussion. However, I think I'll get over that pretty quick once the DH is implemented in the National League
It makes a lot of sense to use the DH this season -- if things get going, I don't think there are going to be a lot of starting pitchers going deep into ballgames. When the pitcher's spot in the batting order would come up, a pinch hitter would be used more often than not. Why bother with that? Just put a regular hitter in the lineup and move on, right?
The DH will not be used in the National League in 2021, but there's little question it will be back in both leagues in 2022 as part of the next collective bargaining agreement.
Players are for it -- it prolongs careers and increases earnings for a lot of guys. And front offices are for it, as they don't desire to see high-priced pitchers doing things that are unnatural acts for them, such as swinging bats and running bases.
Traditionalists are going to have to face it on this: Pitchers can't hit worth a damn. In nearly 5,000 plate appearances last season, pitchers posted a .127 batting average and a .137 on-base percentage. They struck out 2,230 times. A pitcher making a plate appearance seems like a great time to use the bathroom or head to the refrigerator for a snack -- you aren't missing anything.
I have nothing more than my gut to go on with this, but I'm thinking pitchers were at least somewhat more competent at the plate when I was a kid -- in the 1980s. But with the increased specialization in the game, pitchers don't swing the bat much once they graduate high school. Heck, the designated hitter is universal in the minor leagues, so you see very few pitchers who can hit anymore.
Being an American League fan, I'm a DH proponent. The only thing I'll miss about pitchers hitting is the arguments between the fans of the two leagues. It's a unique and fun quirk of baseball that the two leagues have such a significant difference in rules, and it creates a lot of discussion. However, I think I'll get over that pretty quick once the DH is implemented in the National League
Monday, May 25, 2020
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