The greatest baseball board game ever invented

I'm at SoxFest this weekend and won't have time to blog, so in the meantime check out this tutorial on the greatest baseball board game ever invented, Statis Pro Baseball:

White Sox, Cubs top two suitors for Dexter Fowler?

Dexter Fowler

I'm not sure I buy this NBC Sports report that says the White Sox and the Cubs "appear to be the two teams with the most interest" in Dexter Fowler.

I'm especially skeptical because the source appears to be Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The Score isn't exactly the place I go to get intelligent baseball talk, but that's a blog for another day.

Just for grins, let's discuss the possibility of Fowler landing on either side of Chicago. I think it makes a lot of sense for him to go back to the Cubs, for whom he hit .250/.346/.411 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 156 games last year. In contrast, I don't think Fowler is the right guy for the Sox, but more on that in a minute.

First, let's look at why Fowler is a good fit for the Cubs: Well, he was their center fielder last year when they won 97 games, and they haven't replaced him with anybody else. I know what you're thinking. Didn't the Cubs sign outfielder Jason Heyward to a eight-year mega-deal worth $23 million a year?

Yes, yes, they did.

But let's think logically about Heyward's skill set. What is it that he does well that makes him worth all those millions? He's the best defensive right fielder in baseball, right? He's got three Gold Gloves in the past four years that prove that.

That being the case, why would the Cubs pay Heyward, the best defensive right fielder in baseball, $23 million to be an average or slightly above-average center fielder? Wouldn't it make much more sense to re-sign Fowler to play center field, put Heyward in right field where he belongs and trade Jorge Soler to help solidify a top-heavy pitching staff?

Yes, I think that makes a lot of sense. And unlike other teams, the Cubs wouldn't have to surrender draft pick compensation to sign Fowler. You better believe that qualifying offer has contributed to a slow market for Fowler. It's moot if he goes back to the Cubs.

As for the White Sox, one of the things that's perplexing about this report is that it calls for the Sox to sign Fowler to play center field and move Adam Eaton to right field. Huh?

I feel like Fowler would be redundant with Eaton on the Sox roster. Let's look at some numbers:

2015:
Eaton: .287/.361/.431, 14 HRs, 18 stolen bases
Fowler: .250/.346/.411, 17 HRs, 20 stolen bases

Career:
Eaton: .284/.355/.407
Fowler: .267/.363/.418

Pretty similar players, right? The Sox already have Eaton, a center fielder with some pop and some speed who can bat leadoff and get on base. Why give up a draft pick to sign Fowler, when he essentially provides the same thing?

What the Sox really need is a corner outfielder who can hit the ball over the fence. Incumbent corner outfielders Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia combined for only 25 home runs last season. Fowler doesn't offer a big upgrade over that, as the 17 homers he hit last year represent a career high. His career norm is 11 home runs per 162 games, which is less than what Cabrera and Garcia hit last year.

Further, there's no evidence that Fowler offers a defensive upgrade over Eaton. Let's take a look at Fowler's defensive WAR over the past five years:

2011: -0.1
2012: -0.8
2013: -0.2
2014: -1.8
2015: -1.0

Five straight years of negative defensive WAR.

Eaton's defense is a little harder to judge, based on the two years he's been a full-time player with the Sox:

2014: +1.8
2015: -1.1

Eaton was a Gold Glove finalist two years ago, then slipped defensively for unknown reasons last year. I need to see what he does this year to make a more firm judgment on what kind of defensive player he'll be over the long haul, but Fowler has a more established track record of being mediocre (at best) in center field. The Eaton we saw in 2014 is clearly superior to Fowler defensively, so I wouldn't be signing Fowler in order to move Eaton to right field.

It just doesn't make a lot of sense for the Sox to bid too high, or even bid at all, on Fowler.

A question I will ask Rick Hahn and Robin Ventura at SoxFest

As most White Sox fans know, the team has not made the playoffs since 2008. What is the common denominator in these non-playoff years? Well, you can come up with a few things, but the one that stands out to me is poor starts to the season.

2015: 10-16
2014: 14-17
2013: 15-21
2012: 13-17
2011: 11-22
2010: 16-24
2009: 15-22

Seven straight years of poor starts. Seven straight years of digging an early hole in the division. Seven straight years of excuses about how "early" it is. Seven straight years of no October baseball on the South Side.

Hey Rick Hahn and Robin Ventura, have you identified the reasons for these continued bad beginnings, and what can be done to fix it?

We'll see what they say this weekend ...

Four notable free agents remain on the market

Ian Desmond

This offseason, there were 16 players who received qualifying offers from their teams and declined them, opting instead to become free agents. Twelve of them have signed; four remain on the market as of Tuesday afternoon:

1. Dexter Fowler, outfielder: Fowler is coming off a decent season with the Cubs, where he posted a .250/.346/.411 slash with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His on-base percentage was actually down a little bit last year from his career norm of .363, but he's always been a guy who gets on base at a decent clip at the top of a lineup. However, he is horribly miscast as a center fielder -- he's posted a negative defensive WAR in each of the past five seasons. And he lacks the arm strength to play right field. Those defensive warts are likely why he's still on the market, with teams reluctant to surrender a draft pick to sign him.

2. Ian Desmond, shortstop: Desmond picked a bad time to have a horrible year in 2015, .233/.290/.384 with 19 home runs, 62 RBIs and 27 errors. All those figures are worse than his career norms, and despite a weak crop of free-agent shortstops, nobody has been willing to meet his asking price -- especially with the draft pick compensation attached. Desmond, 30, may have to change positions to convince a team to take a chance on him at this point.

3. Howie Kendrick, second base: It's a little bit surprising this guy is still available, especially with second basemen who can hit being hard to come by. Again, the draft pick thing is a major hindrance, but GMs should know what they are getting in Kendrick. His batting average has been between .285 and .297 in each of the past five years. His on-base percentage has been between .325 and .347 in each of the past five years. Not much variance. Kendrick is 32, so he's not going to command a four or five-year contract, but you would think he would be a nice option for a team looking for a second baseman on a two- or three-year deal. This is a consistent player.

4. Yovani Gallardo, pitcher: Gallardo's days of being a top-of-the-rotation pitcher with the Milwaukee Brewers are past, but give him credit for surviving despite a noticeable decline in his stuff. He can't overpower anybody anymore, yet he still managed to go 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA in 33 starts with the Texas Rangers last year -- his first season in the American League. There are a lot of career NLers who have had a much more difficult adjustment to the AL than that. That said, Gallardo's strikeout rate has fallen from 25.9 percent to 15.3 percent. Even though Gallardo will only be 30 on Opening Day, he's got nearly 1,500 big-league innings on his arm, and that seems to be taking a toll.

Other notable players still available:

David Freese, third baseman
Doug Fister, pitcher
Justin Morneau, first baseman
Tyler Clippard, relief pitcher
Tim Lincecum, pitcher
Austin Jackson, outfielder
Steve Pearce, outfielder
Mat Latos, pitcher
Juan Uribe, infielder
Pedro Alvarez, first baseman

Yoenis Cespedes signs three-year deal to stay with Mets

Yoenis Cespedes

Yoenis Cespedes was the last of the impact free-agent outfielders on the board this offseason, and he had to wait until late January to sign a contract.

But, what a player-friendly contract it is.

Cespedes will stay with the New York Mets, after agreeing Friday on a three-year deal worth $75 million. The Mets front-loaded the deal -- Cespedes will make $27.5 million for the 2016 season, and the contract includes an opt-out after one year.

Given next offseason's weak crop of free agents, Cespedes is in position to go back on the market next year and cash in with an even bigger contract -- if he performs at a high level this season in New York.

Cespedes was acquired by the Mets midseason last year, and he hit .287 with 17 home runs and 44 RBIs in 57 games. During that stretch, New York went 36-21 and transformed itself from a middling team into NL East Division champions. They went on to make the World Series before losing to the Kansas City Royals.

Give the Mets credit. This move solidifies them as one of the top teams in the National League. Quite possibly, they are the favorite to make it back to the World Series. It's hard to bet against them with the pitching staff they have in place. Their rotation includes Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and one of Bartolo Colon or Zack Wheeler.

Find me another team in baseball that can match that kind of quality and depth in starting pitching. I don't think there is one.

There's every reason to believe Cespedes, 30, will continue to be productive as a cleanup hitter. The only real problem for the Mets here will be their outfield defense. Cespedes is a plus defender in left field, but on the Mets, he'll need to play center field in between Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson. As a center fielder, Cespedes is adequate at best. That could hurt New York at times, but I think the benefits of this signing far outweigh the drawbacks for them. They are one of the teams that has a shot to win it all in 2016.

What does this mean for the White Sox? Well, back to the drawing board. I'm not sure the Sox were ever serious contenders for Cespedes, and certainly, they were not going to hand out a contract like the one Cespedes signed.

The Sox got caught a little bit here, slow-playing the outfield market, believing somebody's price would eventually come down into their range. That never happened, and for now, they are stuck with the status quo in their outfield. We'll find out in the next few weeks how much they really believe in Avisail Garcia. Will they give him another year in right field, or will they make a trade to replace him?

White Sox bring back Matt Albers on one-year deal

Matt Albers

The White Sox moved to increase their bullpen depth on Thursday, re-signing veteran reliever Matt Albers on a one-year deal worth $2.25 million. The contract includes a $3 million club option for 2017.

It's a pleasant surprise to see Albers, 33, back in a Sox uniform. He pitched so well the second half of last season that it was reasonable to believe he would get a better contract than the Sox would be willing to offer him.

In 30 games, Albers went 2-0 with 1.21 ERA. He was unscored upon in his final 20 appearances of the season, and his 1.14 second-half ERA was best among all American League relievers.

Albers is unlikely to pitch at that same high level again, but his approach helps him survive in a hitters' park such as U.S. Cellular Field. He attacks the strike zone -- he walked only nine in 37.1 IP last year -- and he keeps the ball low and produces a lot of ground ball outs. He allowed only three home runs in 2015, which is a positive for a guy who figures to pitch in the seventh and eighth innings. If healthy, Albers should be a useful reliever for the Sox.

Barring unforeseen injuries, the Sox appear to be heading toward spring training with a settled bullpen situation. We'll assume they're going with five right-handers and two left-handers. The five righties would closer David Robertson, Nate Jones, Albers, Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam. The two lefties would be Zach Duke and Dan Jennings.

The other good thing about Albers' return: We get another summer of jokes about his portly stature. Albers is listed at 225 pounds, and that's probably being kind.

If you're out at the ballpark this year, I'll be the guy whose yelling, "HEY HEY HEY! IT'S FAT ALBERS!" as Albers jogs in from the bullpen:

Na, Na, Na, gonna have a good time!

Frank Thomas, Tom Paciorek, Mike Squires, Carlos May, Adam Eaton added to SoxFest 2016 lineup

Frank Thomas

There has been some grumbling about the lack of star power on the list of former White Sox players who will be in attendance at SoxFest 2016.

That complaint should be silenced now that the franchise's greatest player, Hall-of-Famer Frank Thomas, is scheduled to appear Jan. 30 at the event, which runs from Jan. 29-31 at the Chicago Hilton.

According to a news release issued Wednesday by the team, former White Sox players Carlos May, Tom Paciorek and Mike Squires also are scheduled to appear. I chuckled to myself when I read the release, which referred to these three players as "greats."

Paciorek had a good career, and had two nice seasons for the Sox in the early 1980s. May was a two-time All-Star for the Sox (1969, 1972) and had a 96-RBI season on the South Side in 1973. So, I could at least make a case for calling those two guys "greats."

But Squires? That dude had a .318 career slugging percentage. That's slugging percentage, not batting average. He was a slick fielder, but he might have been the weakest hitting first baseman the Sox have ever had. For me, Squires' main claim to fame is the fact that he played some games at third base in 1984, despite being a left-handed thrower. He's still the only left-handed player I've ever seen play an infield position other than first base at the major-league level.

But was Squires a "great"? Uh, no, Frank Thomas was great.

In any case, as expected, current center fielder Adam Eaton has been added to the SoxFest lineup. Other recent additions include prospects Eddy Alvarez, Adam Engel, Jacob May and Trey Michalczewski.

A complete list of scheduled attendees can be found at whitesox.com/SoxFest.