Minnesota Twins add Homer Bailey, Rich Hill to fill out starting rotation

Homer Bailey

The Minnesota Twins needed two starting pitchers to fill out their 2020 rotation, but they failed to sign any of the high-profile names on the market.

On Tuesday, the Twins picked up two veterans to fill those gaps, signing right-hander Homer Bailey and left-hander Rich Hill to one-year contracts.

Bailey, 33, won a total of eight games in four seasons from 2015-18, but he bounced back to respectability in 2019. He went 13-9 with a 4.57 ERA in 31 starts and 163.1 innings pitched.

Eighteen of those starts came with the Kansas City Royals, 13 with the Oakland Athletics after a midseason trade.

Bailey's deal is for $7 million, and he will earn performance bonuses if he reaches 180 innings, something he has not done since the 2013 season.

Hill, 39, will be 40 years old by the time the season starts, and he's still good when he's healthy, but he's on the injured list a lot. He was limited to 13 starts in 2019 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he did go 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 58.2 innings.

Over the past five seasons, Hill has made 86 starts, or about 17 per season. That's why his contract contains only $3 million in guarantees. The contract escalates to $9.5 million if he hits 15 starts or 75 innings. Hill had surgery on his elbow in October, and he won't return until at least June.

I wouldn't expect either of these two guys to provide a major impact for the Twins, but they had to do something. They still have their ace, Jose Berrios, and two middle-of-the-rotation pitchers in Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda.

However, the other members of their 2019 rotation signed elsewhere. Kyle Gibson is with the Texas Rangers. Martin Perez has moved on to the Boston Red Sox.

Of course, the Twins won 101 games and the AL Central title last summer on the strength of their excellent offense, not their pitching. They smashed a MLB record 307 home runs, and no matter what, they are going to have to hit their way back to the playoffs.

Rumor has it Minnesota "has room to go big" for third baseman Josh Donaldson. That would add to an already good lineup, and it also would improve the Twins' infield defense -- a must behind a starting staff that is likely to be considered suspect going into the season.

White Sox left-hander Dallas Keuchel: 'You win or lose with catchers'

Dallas Keuchel

The White Sox on Monday formally announced their agreement with veteran left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel on a three-year, $55 million contract.

This signing surprised many of us, because Keuchel is a Scott Boras client, and the Sox don't have a history of doing business with Boras clients. Hopefully, this move is a sign that times are changing, and naturally, Keuchel was asked why he chose to come to the South Side.

You can listen to his full remarks on that topic here.

Keuchel cited the opportunity to win in the AL Central over the next three to five years and the leadership that already exists in the Sox's clubhouse. But most notably, Keuchel mentioned that the catching situation on the South Side is "rock solid," adding that "you win or lose with catchers."

He said the previous free agent signing of Yasmani Grandal was critical in his decision to join the Sox, and it's also true that Keuchel played college baseball with James McCann at Arkansas.

The pundits in Chicago tend to define the Sox in terms of the Cubs, which is irritating but a fact of life around here. And some talking heads have asked, "Is Dallas Keuchel the Sox's version of Jon Lester?" When Lester signed with the Cubs before the start of the 2015 season, that signaled that the Cubs were done rebuilding and ready to contend.

While it is true that Lester and Keuchel are both accomplished veteran lefties, I actually think the Grandal signing is the one that signaled the end of the Sox's rebuild. Based on Keuchel's comments Monday, it's my belief that he isn't here without the earlier addition of Grandal.

Some have said the Sox should trade McCann because they don't need him anymore. I disagree. I like the combination of Grandal and McCann behind the plate.

Why?

Well, Keuchel said it in the linked audio clip: "You win or lose with catchers." Isn't it about time the Sox had depth and strength behind the plate? It's been a long time since we've been able to say that was the case.

Will Edwin Encarnacion solve the home run problem for the White Sox?

Edwin Encarnacion

The White Sox finished 13th out of 15 teams in the American League with 182 home runs in 2019. The only two teams behind them were the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers, who combined to lose 217 games.

By way of comparison, the AL Central-winning Minnesota Twins smashed a league-leading 307 home runs, and the league average was 232 homers. Indeed, the Sox were well behind the curve in hitting the ball out of the ballpark last season.

Perhaps that's why the Sox agreed to terms on Christmas Day with veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion. It's a one-year deal worth $12 million, and it includes a club option for 2021 that also is worth $12 million.

In 3-up, 3-down format, let's take a look at why this deal may work for the Sox, and why it may not.

3 up

1. Encarnacion has been of the game's most prolific sluggers since 2012. The soon-to-be-37-year-old has hit between 32 and 42 home runs in each of the past eight seasons. That's a model of consistency. Even in 2019, his age-36 season, Encarnacion clubbed 34 home runs and drove in 86 runs in only 109 games.

2. Encarnacion has proven to be successful in the DH role. In the past, we've seen the Sox try to force career National League players (Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche) into the DH spot with little or no success. They also tried Yonder Alonso, which was a disaster, in part because Alonso had always been a regular first baseman and couldn't adjust to the particulars of the role. Encarnacion has played 723 career games as a DH and posted a .268/.365/.518 batting line with 175 homers and 530 RBIs. That's what you're looking for at the position. He will accept the job and won't moan about the mental challenges it presents.

3. The 2019 Sox got poor production out of their DHs. Sox DHs posted a .205/.285/.356 batting line with 17 home runs and 75 RBIs in 2019. That is pathetic from a bat-only position. A .641 OPS is entirely unacceptable at a lot of positions, most of all DH. Encarnacion's line last season was .244/.344/.531. That's an .875 OPS, a massive upgrade, and even if Encarnacion's production drops some, it's still an improvement for the Sox.

3 down

1. Encarnacion is going to be 37 years old next month. He did only play in 109 games last season, and he dealt with wrist, oblique and ankle injuries at different points during 2019. There's always the chance that once a guy starts getting hurt, he keeps getting hurt. That's a risk for the Sox here, and that's likely among the reasons Encarnacion only commanded one year guaranteed on the open market.

2. This signing limits lineup flexibility. One of the negatives to signing Encarnacion is he's somewhat redundant on the roster with Jose Abreu, who also is a right-handed slugger who needs to play first base or DH. Encarnacion can probably provide a few games at first to get Abreu off his feet here and there, but there's nothing else he can do other than DH. My preference had been to get a right-handed bat that could both DH and play the outfield. Obviously, Encarnacion is not that. There's no way he can be used in platoon situation with, say, Nomar Mazara.

3. Encarnacion struggled with high-velocity pitchers in the playoffs. Encarnacion started the 2019 season with the Seattle Mariners, before being traded June 12 to the eventual AL East champion New York Yankees. His playoff at-bats were, umm, not so great. He went 5 for 31 with three doubles, no home runs and 13 strikeouts in eight games. In particular, he struggled in the AL Championship Series against the Houston Astros, going 1 for 18 with 11 strikeouts. From my layman's perspective, the Astros just went after him with fastballs, and they threw pitches right by him. Something to watch for once the season starts.

Merry Christmas from The Baseball Kid

Hyun-Jin Ryu agrees to four-year deal with Toronto Blue Jays

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Left-handed pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu has agreed to a four-year, $80 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, according to reports.

Ryu, 32, finished second in the National League Cy Young Award voting in 2019, when he went 14-5 with a league-leading 2.32 ERA in 29 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Blue Jays are looking to reconfigure their starting rotation this offseason -- they've also added right-handers Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson.

I think this is an overpay, but hey, Toronto is coming off a 95-loss season, and it was going to have to significantly outbid the competition in order to sign a pitcher of Ryu's caliber.

There's no doubt Ryu has quality stuff, but if you look at his injury history, and you wonder if he's going to be productive all four years of the deal. Here are the number of starts he's made in each season of his career:

2013: 30
2014: 26
2015: 0
2016: 1
2017: 25
2018: 15
2019: 29

Last season was the first time Ryu had thrown more than 180 innings in a season since his rookie year in 2013. I'm not sure if he'll hold up, but as a White Sox fan, I am glad he signed somewhere outside of the American League Central Division. I was concerned Ryu would sign with the Minnesota Twins, who still need help for their rotation.

At this point, all the high-end starting pitchers are off the free agent market. The top two remaining guys are Homer Bailey and Ivan Nova, so we'll see if Minnesota moves to address its pitching weaknesses via trade.

White Sox sign left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel to three-year contract

Dallas Keuchel

The White Sox on Saturday moved to boost their starting rotation, agreeing to terms with left-hander Dallas Keuchel on a three-year, $55 million contract, according to reports.

The deal includes a vesting option for a fourth season that could take the value of the contract up to $74 million.

Keuchel, 31, won the Cy Young Award in 2015 as a member of the Houston Astros, and he helped that franchise win its only World Series title in 2017. He had a strange season in 2019 -- he was a free agent last offseason, but signed late with the Atlanta Braves, and he didn't pitch until June.

He compiled an 8-8 record with a 3.75 ERA in 19 starts and 112.1 innings pitched. He struck out 91, walked 39 and posted a 1.367 WHIP.

This signing is interesting. Keuchel was once an ace, but he's not anymore, but then again he's not being paid like an ace. For actual ace contracts, see Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. He's being paid like a stabilizing, mid-rotation veteran, and the hope is he can pitch like a stabilizing, mid-rotation veteran. Keuchel has three 200-plus inning seasons in his past, and he will be the only member of the Sox pitching staff to have ever reached the 200-inning threshold.

Here's how the rotation may look when the season starts:
1. Lucas Giolito
2. Keuchel
3. Reynaldo Lopez
4. Dylan Cease
5. Gio Gonzalez

And let's not forget, Michael Kopech is healthy and will join the rotation at some point.

The concern about Keuchel would be his age. At 31, his best season (2015) is five years in the past. He isn't going to go 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA again. He doesn't have the velocity that the stats guys love -- you're going to be seeing a lot of 87 mph sinkers. And it is true that Keuchel was not the Sox's top choice. That was Zack Wheeler, who signed a five-year deal with Philadelphia.

However, consider these things about Keuchel: He has compiled a 121 ERA+ over the past three seasons. That means he's been 21 percent better than league average over that time, and it's notable that these numbers DO NOT include his Cy Young season of 2015. He's also been healthy, knock on wood. There's only been one stint on the injured list in the past seven years, and that was for a pinched nerve in his neck. Keuchel has never missed time because of a shoulder or elbow problem. And Keuchel had a 60.1 groundball rate last season -- that's the best in baseball for any pitcher who threw more than 110 innings.

Now, whether the Sox infield can catch all those groundballs, that's a matter of debate. But I think that number demonstrates that Keuchel can still be an effective starter for the Sox, and I don't think three years and about $18 million per is an overpay at all -- especially when you consider what aces are receiving in the current marketplace.

Perhaps most importantly, this addition -- and the addition of Gonzalez -- sends pitchers such as Dylan Covey, Carson Fulmer and Ross Detwiler to the back of the line in terms of rotation options. Even if you don't care for these two additions, Keuchel and Gonzalez have a floor that is higher than the ceilings of pitchers such as Covey and Detwiler. At minimum, the Sox have made incremental progress here.

White Sox reportedly adding Gio Gonzalez, Cheslor Cuthbert

Gio Gonzalez

The White Sox on Thursday agreed to contracts with left-handed pitcher Gio Gonzalez and infielder Cheslor Cuthbert, according to reports.

MLB.com is saying we don't know the terms on the Gonzalez deal as yet, because the Sox have not confirmed the move.

Gonzalez, 34, appeared in 19 games (17 starts) with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2019, going 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.294 WHIP. He struck out 78 and walked 37 over 87.1 innings pitched.

We all figured the Sox would add a back-end starter eventually, and this signing is OK on one condition -- Gonzalez needs to be the second- or third-best starter the Sox sign this offseason. So far, he's the best starter they've signed, and that's concerning.

Maybe I should amend the projected rotation I posted yesterday to look more like this:

1. Lucas Giolito
2. ??????
3. Reynaldo Lopez
4. Dylan Cease
5. Gonzalez

The Sox still need another starting pitcher, and it needs to be somebody who can pitch deeper into games and be more reliable than a journeyman veteran such as Gonzalez.

Cuthbert, 27, is a former Kansas City Royals prospect who never panned out. Last season, he batted .246/.294/.379 with nine home runs and 40 RBIs in 87 games and 330 plate appearances. His career slash line is .250/.300/.378.

Meh. At least it's only a minor-league deal. Cuthbert has played third base and first base in his career. I guess he's around as protection in case Yoan Moncada suffers another nagging, soft tissue injury at some point during the 2020 season.

Other than that, I got nothing.