Minnesota Twins lose 40% of their starting rotation to free agency

The Minnesota Twins were not the strongest division champion in 2023. They won the American League Central with an 87-75 record. That's nothing special, but nobody else in the division managed to finish above .500.

Well, the Twins might not even be that strong in 2024, with their ownership deciding a cut in payroll is in order.

And now Minnesota has lost 40% of its starting rotation in free agency within a period of about 36 hours.

Kenta Maeda on Sunday agreed to terms with the Detroit Tigers on a two-year, $24 million contract. On Monday, Sonny Gray joined the St. Louis Cardinals on a three-year, $75 million deal.

The Cardinals' projected rotation of Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Kyle Gibson probably averages about 35 years old, which is weird, but we're not too worried about St. Louis here.

We're looking at the Twins, who still have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in their rotation. The other two spots, who knows right now? Is that good enough to repeat as division winners? Possibly.

The Tigers added Maeda to a rotation that likely includes Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Reese Olson. Will Detroit be able to keep free agent lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who was their team leader in starts (26), wins (13), strikeouts (143) and ERA (3.30) last season?

If yes, maybe Detroit, which was 78-84 a year ago, is positioned to take control of the AL Central.

And isn't it pathetic the White Sox aren't in this conversation? There is still a lot of offseason left, but you're again looking at a division that could be won with a mid-80s win total. Yet 85 wins feels like the unreachable star for the Sox.

Happy Thanksgiving from The Baseball Kid

 

Sources: Paul DeJong to sign one-year deal with White Sox

Paul DeJong

Give White Sox general manager Chris Getz credit for this: He said he would improve the middle infield defense this offseason, and he has acquired two plus defensive players before Thanksgiving.

According to sources, the Sox are signing 30-year-old veteran shortstop Paul DeJong to a one-year deal. The contract is pending a physical, which reportedly will occur Monday.

Much like second baseman Nicky Lopez, who was acquired from the Atlanta Braves last week in the Aaron Bummer deal, DeJong is going to make the plays. He totaled 9 outs above average in 2023, as did Lopez. But much like Lopez, he can't hit.

Here is DeJong's OPS+ over his seven-year career:

• 2017: 121
• 2018: 102
• 2019: 99
• 2020: 87
• 2021: 85
• 2022: 52
• 2023: 66

DeJong was an All-Star in 2019 when he hit 30 home runs, but that was the year of the juiced baseball. The decline is clear in the years since. 

Over the past three years, DeJong is batting .192/.265/.353 in 302 games. In 2023, he bounced from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Toronto Blue Jays to the San Francisco Giants. He batted .207/.258/.355 with 14 homers and 38 RBIs.

Not promising, right? But here's the funny thing. Actually, it's not that funny, but DeJong was a better player than Tim Anderson last year. He out-homered him 14-1. He had a higher OPS than Anderson, .612 to .582. As mentioned, DeJong's OPS+ was 66. Anderson's was 60. DeJong's WAR was a terrible -0.5, but Anderson's was a disgusting -2.0.

None of this is an endorsement of the DeJong signing. The guy isn't very good, but these numbers show just how bad it got with Anderson last year.

The best you can hope for here is that DeJong holds shortstop down for long enough that top prospect Colson Montgomery is able to complete his development in the minor leagues.

Reynaldo Lopez, Lance Lynn headed to new teams

Lance Lynn is going back where he started.

Two former White Sox pitchers agreed to terms on new contracts with new teams Monday.

Reynaldo Lopez is headed to the Atlanta Braves on a three-year, $30 million contract. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn is going to the St. Louis Cardinals. He's got a one-year deal worth $11 million, with incentives that could earn him as much as $14 million. The contract also includes an option for 2025 that could increase the value to $25 million.

Lopez, who turns 30 in January, bounced from the White Sox to the Los Angeles Angels to the Cleveland Guardians last season. After a rough start with the Sox, his final season numbers don't look too bad -- 3-7 with a 3.27 ERA in 68 games, with six saves. Lopez fanned 83 batters in 66 innings.

Feel free to insert the joke here about the Braves wishing to re-create the Sox bullpen. Lopez rejoins his former teammate Aaron Bummer, whom the Sox traded to Atlanta late last week.

But in a different twist, it appears the Braves are interested in possibly making Lopez a starter. According to a tweet sent Monday by Ken Rosenthal, Lopez will prepare this offseason as if he will be a member of the rotation, and Atlanta will explore the option in spring training.

Lopez hasn't been a full-time starting pitcher since 2019. That didn't work out for him in Chicago, but if he makes it work in Atlanta, that would justify the investment the Braves have made here. If Lopez is just going to be a seventh-inning reliever or something similar, you can find guys to do that role for less than $10 million AAV.

Lynn, 36, made 32 starts last season -- 21 with the Sox and 11 with the Los Angeles Dodgers -- but that's one of the few positives he can take from his 2023 campaign. He went 13-11, but had an unsightly 5.73 ERA. He had a -0.8 WAR and gave up a league-high 44(!) homers over 183.2 innings. 

The Cardinals know Lynn well. He pitched in St. Louis from 2011-17 and won a World Series there in 2011. No doubt, the club is hoping the veteran has at least one decent year left in his arm.

In other starting pitching news, a major name agreed to a contract over the weekend. Aaron Nola is staying with the Philadelphia Phillies for seven years and $172 million.

What might this mean for White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, whose name has been mentioned in trade rumors? 

There are still some good free agent pitchers out there, including NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, World Series champion Jordan Montgomery and Japanese import Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Nola has set the market for those guys by agreeing on a contract worth $24.5 million AAV.

Meanwhile, Cease is not a free agent. He's arbitration eligible with a suggested salary of $8.8 million. He has two years of team control remaining.

If Lynn can pull in $11 million in free agency coming of a rough year, then Cease is a tremendous value in this marketplace. Sox general manager Chris Getz should keep that in mind, if he is indeed entertaining trade offers for Cease.

White Sox trade Aaron Bummer to Atlanta Braves for 5 players

It doesn't qualify as a "haul," but it was still surprising to see the White Sox acquire five players in exchange for Aaron Bummer.

The Sox on Thursday sent the left-hander reliever to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for pitchers Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster and Riley Gowens, and infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake.

Why is it not a haul? Well, all five of these players the Sox acquired have some significant flaw in their games. That doesn't mean these guys couldn't help on the South Side. They might.

But let's just all understand that these players were excess on the Atlanta 40-man roster. Soroka and Lopez were non-tender candidates, in fact, so I don't think the Braves look at any of these guys as big losses.

That said, Bummer's usefulness had come to an end with the Sox. With 2024 projected as a retooling season, if not a rebuilding season, what's the wisdom in paying a relief pitcher a $5.5 million salary to protect leads that don't exist?

Here are a few more thoughts about each of the six players in the trade:

Bummer: Most Sox fans are happy to be done with the 30-year-old after he went 5-5 with an ugly 6.79 ERA in 61 appearances in 2023. Bummer issued an absurdly high 5.6 walks per nine innings, and his 1.526 WHIP isn't what you want from a late-inning reliever. 

Still, the statheads point to his 3.58 FIP as a sign that Bummer pitched in hard luck. In their tweet announcing the trade, the Braves said, "His barrel percentage of just 2.7% ranked in the 99th percentile among pitchers in baseball, while his ground ball rate of 60.1% was in the 97th."

Fair enough. It's not hard to envision Bummer performing better in 2024 with a better infield defense behind him. However, Atlanta fans should know that Bummer is a terrible fielding pitcher, so he does himself no favors when he's fumbling around some of that weak contact he induces. And his walks will drive you crazy. 

Soroka: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. Soroka finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2019, when he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts with the Braves. However, he's only pitched 46 innings combined in the four years since. Soroka has torn his Achilles' tendon twice, which caused him to not throw a pitch at any level in both 2021 and 2022. He was 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA in seven games (6 starts) with the Braves in 2023. This is a talented pitcher, but who knows whether he'll be on the mound? 

Shuster: The 25-year-old began the 2023 season as the top prospect in the Atlanta system. But the left-hander fell on hard times last season. He went 5-6 with a 5.01 ERA at Triple-A Gwinnett, and 4-3 with a 5.81 ERA in 11 starts with the Braves. The strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors was not good -- 30 strikeouts against 26 walks in 52.2 innings. At this point, Shuster is a reclamation project.

Lopez: Sox fans rolled their eyes at the acquisition of the former Kansas City infielder. As most everyone knows, Lopez is a local guy. He graduated from Naperville Central High School. He also played for manager Pedro Grifol with the Royals, and everyone is sick of more Kansas City people coming to Chicago. Lopez is a lousy hitter, as his career .249/.312/.319 slash line in five MLB seasons shows. However, he is a plus defender, especially at second base. He can also play shortstop or third base in a pinch, and do it competently. Unlike a lot of players on the Sox roster, Lopez has at least one high-end skill that can help a team: his glove. From that perspective, he's probably getting more crap than he deserves.

Shewmake: The left-handed-hitting shortstop was Atlanta's first-round pick in the 2019 draft. But other than a brief two-game stint in 2023, he hasn't cracked the majors. Much like Lopez, he can field his position. He's got sure hands at shortstop, but he just isn't a very good hitter. His slash line at Triple-A Gwinnett last season was .234/.299/.407. If you're a glass-half-full person, that .407 slugging percentage isn't half bad for a glove-first player. Shewmake totaled 16 homers and 69 RBIs last season. Most likely, he's a depth player. And if he helps prevent the Sox from prematurely rushing top prospect Colson Montgomery to the majors, then he'll have done his job.

Gowens: Another local product here. Gowens is a Libertyville native who pitched at the University of Illinois. The right-hander worked exclusively as a starter in college, going 9-12 with a 5.69 ERA in 37 starts over three seasons. The Braves selected him in the ninth round of the 2023 draft. He appeared in five games, three of them starts, in the Atlanta system last year. He threw the ball well -- a 1.15 ERA over 15.2 innings. Gowens is likely destined for A ball in 2024. He'll be old for the level at age 24.

What's the best-case outcome for the Sox here? It would be nice if they can get at least one back-end starter out of this deal -- either Soroka gets healthy or Shuster improves. And it would be nice if at least one of Lopez or Shewmake helps solidify the Sox's leaky middle infield defense. 

Really, if two of the five players help the Sox, call the trade a win.

White Sox rebuilding fail: A look back at the 2018 draft

Tanking has become a popular strategy across professional sports over the past decade. It probably doesn't work as well in baseball as it does in football, basketball or hockey, but that hasn't stopped teams from trying it.

In 2017 and 2018, the White Sox were rebuilding, but it's fair to say they were tanking -- setting their roster up to lose, in order to get a high pick in the next year's draft.

The Sox went 67-95 in 2017, the fourth-worst record in Major League Baseball. That meant they had the No. 4 overall pick in the 2018 draft, and drafted near the top of all the subsequent rounds.

For tanking to work, a team must make good draft picks and develop that talent. Here's a list of the 40 players the Sox took in that 2018 draft. Players currently on the 40-man roster are in all caps and bolded:

• Round 1: Nick Madrigal, 2B
• Round 2: Steele Walker, OF
• Round 3: Konnor Pilkington, LHP
• Round 4: Lency Delgado, SS
• Round 5: Jonathan Stiever, RHP
• Round 6: Codi Heuer, RHP
  
• Round 7: Cabrera Weaver, OF
• Round 8: Andrew Perez, LHP
• Round 9: Gunnar Troutwine, C
• Round 10: Bennett Sousa, LHP
• Round 11: Kelvin Maldonado, SS
• Round 12: Isaiah Carranza, RHP
• Round 13: Jason Bilous, RHP
• Round 14: DAVIS MARTIN, RHP
• Round 15: Luke Shilling, RHP
• Round 16: Ty Greene, C
• Round 17: Travis Moniot, SS
• Round 18: ROMY GONZALEZ, 3B
• Round 19: Gabriel Ortiz, C
• Round 20: Jimmy Galusky, SS
• Round 21: Nick Johnson, RHP
• Round 22: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 1B
• Round 23: LANE RAMSEY, RHP
• Round 24: Rigo Fernandez, LHP
• Round 25: Jack Maynard, RHP
• Round 26: Devon Perez, RHP
• Round 27: Ian Dawkins, OF
• Round 28: Logan Sowers, OF
• Round 29: Taylor Varnell, LHP
• Round 30: Micah Coffey, SS
• Round 31: Austin Conway, RHP
• Round 32: Aaron Soto, LHP
• Round 33: Bryce Bush, 3B
• Round 34: Alec Valenzuela, C
• Round 35: Jason Morgan, RHP
• Round 36: Adrian Del Castillo, C,
• Round 37: Cannon King, 2B
• Round 38: Matthew Klug, OF
• Round 39: Mason Montgomery, LHP
• Round 40: Kyle Salley, LHP

We always say you can't judge a draft until you get a few years down the road. Well, we're five years down the road from this draft, and I would say it was poor. The Sox didn't get a single impact talent for their tanking efforts during the 2017 season.

Fourteenth-rounder Martin made 14 appearances and started nine games for the 2022 Sox, but he missed the entire 2023 season with Tommy John surgery. That's the closest thing we've had to a success story here.

Gonzalez, the 18th-rounder, has appeared in 86 games across parts of the past three seasons and slashed .222/.239/.361. He missed most of the 2023 season with a shoulder injury. He profiles as a career utility player, if he's lucky.

Ramsey, the 23rd-rounder, made it to the majors last year after the Sox sold off half their pitching staff at the trade deadline. His ERA was 5.85 over 21 games, but honestly, anything you get out of a guy drafted that late is a bonus.

The real issue here is the top of this draft. Madrigal made it to the big leagues in 2020 and started for the Sox in 2021 before tearing his hamstring in June. He and sixth-round pick Heuer, who also made it to the bigs in 2020, were shipped to the Cubs at the trade deadline for reliever Craig Kimbrel. 

Kimbrel was a disaster for the Sox and departed in free agency after the 2021 season. Madrigal is an injury-prone utility guy for the Cubs, and Heuer has not pitched in the majors in either of the past two seasons because of injury.

Second-round pick Walker was traded to the Texas Rangers in December 2019 for outfielder Nomar Mazara. The deal did not work out for either side. Mazara slumped throughout the pandemic-shortened 2020 season with the Sox, and Walker appeared in just five games with the Rangers in 2022 -- going 1 for 16. He is no longer with the Texas organization. In fact, he spent most of 2023 at High-A West Michigan, an affiliate of the Detroit Tigers.

Third-rounder Pilkington was traded to Cleveland at the deadline in 2021 for second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Pilkington appeared in 16 games (11 starts) with the Guardians, but eventually was designated for assignment. Hernandez did not play well down the stretch for the 2021 Sox and left in free agency after that season.

Fifth-rounder Stiever made two starts for the 2020 Sox, and one relief appearance in 2021. His career ERA is 14.21. Injuries ruined any shot he might have had, and he was outrighted off the roster.

The sad truth for the Sox is this draft was part of their rebuilding failure. None of these players helped the team, either on the field or in trades to acquire talent. It's pretty much a disaster, as a matter of fact.

Jake Eder, Cristian Mena added to White Sox 40-man-roster

The White Sox on Tuesday added pitchers Jake Eder and Cristian Mena to their 40-man roster. The move prevents the two from possibly being selected by another team in the Rule 5 draft.

Eder, 24, is the left-hander the Sox acquired at the trade deadline from the Miami Marlins in exchange for third baseman Jake Burger. Since joining the organization, Eder has struggled. 

He made five starts at Double-A Birmingham, going 0-3 with an 11.25 ERA. After a reset at the Sox's pitching lab, Eder was assigned to the Glendale Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League. His results were marginally improved over six apperances, five of them starts. His ERA was 6.71, but he struck out 16 batters over 17.2 innings.

Eder is currently ranked as the No. 5 prospect in the Sox organization.

Mena, 20, made 23 starts at Double-A Birmingham this season before being promoted to Triple-A Charlotte, where he started four games. Across those 27 appearances, he went 8-7 with a 4.85 ERA. He led all Sox minor league pitchers with 156 strikeouts and 133.2 innings pitched. Those 27 starts were also an organization high.

The right-hander is currently the No. 10 prospect in the organization.

Neither of these two players is ready to pitch in the majors right now. It's reasonable to believe both will be members of the Charlotte rotation when the 2024 season starts. 

It seems unlikely that either would have been selected in the Rule 5 draft, but from the Sox perspective, why take the risk? They have the space on the 40-man roster, and typically, pitchers are more vulnerable to being plucked in the Rule 5 draft -- especially by rebuilding teams. In fact, that's a strategy the rebuilding Sox should consider.

The 40-man roster now has 37 players.