10 candidates for White Sox starting rotation

When I heard the White Sox were signing veteran left-handed pitcher Martin Perez to a one-year contract, my reaction was, "Ha! He's going to be the Opening Day starter!"

Perez, 33, is getting a guaranteed $5 million, according to reports. His salary for 2025 will be $3.5 million. The contract includes a $10 million mutual option for 2026, with a $1.5 million buyout.

What does the Sox rotation look like now that former ace Garrett Crochet has been traded to the Boston Red Sox for futures? Well, here are 10 pitchers we might see:

1. Perez. As ridiculous as it sounds, Perez is going to be the most accomplished starter on this team, which puts him in line for a potential Opening Day nod. His career record is 90-87 with a 4.44 ERA over 314 games, including 269 starts. He struggled the first half of 2024 with Pittsburgh, going 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA. But after a midseason trade to the San Diego Padres, Perez discovered new life over 10 starts. He went 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA. The lefty has a long track record of being a league-average starter, which makes him the top option on this Sox team.

2. Jonathan Cannon. The 24-year-old, former third-round draft pick was an afterthought coming into 2024, but he ended up making 23 appearances (21 starts) with the Sox and put up a 1.9 WAR season as a rookie. He went 5-10 with a 4.49 ERA. Among the younger pitchers who are candidates for the rotation, Cannon starts 2025 on the firmest ground.

3. Drew Thorpe. The 24-year-old righty was the centerpiece of the return in the Dylan Cease trade. After tearing up Double-A Birmingham, he was promoted to Chicago last season and made nine starts. Results were mixed, as he went 3-3 with a 5.48 ERA before elbow trouble sidelined him for the last two months of the season. If Thorpe is healthy, it's hard to envision him not being in the rotation.

4. Bryse Wilson. This 27-year-old veteran made 34 appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers last season, mostly in relief. But he did make nine starts in 2024, and I think he signed with Chicago believing he would get an opportunity to crack the rotation. I like his odds, just because it's hard to see the Sox going with Perez and four kids. There probably has to be one other veteran in there, and Wilson is probably that guy.

5. Davis Martin. The former 14th-round pick surprised everyone by giving the Sox about 60 respectable innings across 14 games (9 starts) in 2022, but then Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the entire 2023 season. He returned to mixed results in the second half of 2024. He made 11 appearances (10 starts) and tossed 50 innings with 47 strikeouts, going 0-5 with a 4.32 ERA. He just turned 28 years old, so there's not much upside left, but he probably enters spring with an inside track for a rotation spot.

6. Sean Burke. Another former third-round pick, the 25-year-old was another guy who was off the grid coming into 2024. He's been injured for a good chunk of his professional career, but he pitched himself back into the picture by making the most of his September call-up last season. He appeared in four games, three of them starts, and went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. He struck out 22 guys in only 19 innings. This is a staff that needs strikeouts. We'll see how Burke looks in spring.

7. Ky Bush. The 25-year-old lefty, acquired in 2023 in the trade that sent Lucas Giolito to the Los Angeles Angels, had a strong showing in Double-A Birmingham and earned an August look with the Sox. Alas, he struggled with his control, walking 16 guys in just 17.2 innings in the majors. He finished 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA. I would expect Bush to start the season in Charlotte, but it's not unreasonable to think he'll get another chance sometime in 2025.

8. Nick Nastrini. Speaking of control problems, Nastrini made eight starts and one relief appearance for the 2024 Sox. He walked 36 guys in 35.2 innings. That was enough to give him an 0-7 record with a 7.07 ERA. Ouch. The 24-year-old will probably get one more kick at the can to make the rotation this spring. It isn't as if the Sox are bursting at the seams with proven options, so there's still a chance for Nastrini to move up this list. But right now, I'm thinking whatever future he has might be in the bullpen.

9. Jairo Iriarte. Another pitcher who came to the Sox in the Cease trade, Iriarte got a late-season look in 2024 with six relief appearances. There's nothing wrong with his 1.50 ERA, but he walked eight guys and struck out six in six innings. Iriarte has a power arm, and he's never going to have great control. But he can't be *that* wild and expect to hold down a rotation spot. He's probably destined for Triple-A Charlotte to start the season, but a pitcher on the 40-man who has had a look in the majors can't be completely discounted.

10. Shane Smith. How about a Rule 5 pick? Smith made 32 appearances and 16 starts across two levels in the Milwaukee Brewers organization last year. He was 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA in those outings. He has to make the club out of spring training, or be offered back to the Brewers. So, that helps his odds, but the most likely scenario is he grabs a spot in the bullpen.

We'll leave top pitching prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith off this list for now. They will start the season in the minor leagues, but I'll mention them here just to acknowledge that a 2025 debut isn't out of the question for either of them. I just don't expect it to occur in March or April.

5-for-1 trade now just a 2-for-1

Did you know that newly acquired White Sox pitcher Tyler Gilbert tossed a no-hitter in his first career start as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2021? Sure, he's a journeyman, but he had his 15 minutes of fame.

The 31-year-old left-hander spent most of 2024 with Lehigh Valley, the Triple-A affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Sox acquired Gilbert from Philadelphia last week in exchange for minor league relief pitcher Aaron Combs.

To make room for Gilbert on the 40-man roster, the Sox designated infielder Braden Shewmake for assignment. This Sox offseason has been -- and will continue to be -- characterized by minor moves such as this. Most of them aren't worth an in-depth breakdown, but Shewmake's departure got me thinking about a trade Sox GM Chris Getz made last offseason.

Remember when Getz traded left-handed reliever Aaron Bummer to the Atlanta Braves for five players? As fans, many of us thought, "Wow, how did he manage to get that type of quantity for an underachiever like Bummer?" 

Well, it turns out there wasn't a lot of quality in that quantity. More than a year later, let's take a look at the guys the Sox acquired in that deal:

1. Shewmake. We'll start with the aforementioned Shewmake, who made the Opening Day roster in 2024. Unfortunately, he was one of the culprits in the team's miserable start. He batted .125/.134/.203 with one homer and four RBIs in 29 games with the Sox. He got sent to Triple-A Charlotte, where he got injured. He appeared in only 10 games at that level and batted .152/.152/.182. You may never see him in the majors again.

2. Nicky Lopez. Have you heard that Lopez is from Naperville? OK, enough with that joke. The infielder played 124 games with the Sox in 2024 and batted .241/.312/.294 with one homer and 21 RBIs. He made $4.3 million last season, and as an arbitration-eligible player, he was in line to get about $5 million in 2025. Thus, the Sox wisely non-tendered him. It would be dumb to give that kind of money to a utility infielder.

3. Michael Soroka. The right-hander went 0-10 with a 4.74 ERA in 25 games, including nine starts, with the 2024 Sox. The nine starts were terrible. Soroka lost five of them and posted a 6.39 ERA. After an injury, he found new life in the bullpen late in the season. He was 0-5 as a reliever, too, but his ERA was a much more respectable 2.75 in those 16 appearances. The Washington Nationals apparently think he can still be a starter. They gave him a one-year contract this offseason.

4. Jared Shuster. The Sox converted this left-hander to mostly relief work. He made 39 appearances in 2024, 35 of which were out of the bullpen. He provided 73.1 innings, going 2-5 with a 4.30 ERA. And hey, the 25-year-old is still on the 40-man roster! If he pitches well in spring, he might actually stick with the Sox for a second season.

5. Riley Gowens. The former University of Illinois pitcher and Libertyville native split his time between High-A Winston Salem and Double-A Birmingham last season. He made 25 starts between the two levels, going 7-6 with a 3.84 ERA. Not bad, but Gowens is now 25 years old, and you won't find  him near the top of any of the prospect lists. Most likely, he's an organizational pitcher. But hey, at least he's still in the organization!

So, basically, that 5-for-1 trade is now a 2-for-1. The Sox still have Shuster and Gowens, but ultimately, this trade did not make a meaningful impact.

Perfect gift for the angry White Sox fan in your life

My copy of "Sell the Team, Jerry!"

I realize it's a little late to buy Christmas gifts now, but if you've got an angry White Sox fan in your life who will be celebrating a birthday soon, you might consider giving them a copy of this book that I received for Christmas.

"Sell the Team, Jerry!" by Brian Jay Siebel offers a decade-by-decade review of Jerry Reinsdorf's reign of terror as White Sox owner.

The book is recently written and published, too, as it includes a recap of the laughable 121-loss season all Sox fans suffered through in 2024.

Through this book, we can experience all the highs and (mostly) lows of the Reinsdorf era, and learn the five hallmarks of Reinsdorf's mismanagement of the team.

Seems like good offseason reading. I look forward to diving in. I'll provide a book report when I finish.

5 thoughts on Baseball America's Top 10 White Sox prospect list

We know how it goes with prospects. Teams and sometimes even the media who cover them often give you a rose-colored view of a young player's future.

Guys who are 20 years old and just starting out are unfairly given "comps" to retired players who are enshrined in Cooperstown. It's mostly eyewash, especially if your favorite team happens to be rebuilding and has nothing better to do than to try to sell fans on the idea that great things are coming three or four years down the road. 

That's certainly where the White Sox are living right now. They will stink again in 2025, but they want you to buy into the six guys they have ranked on the Top 100 prospect list. They want you to believe that the outlook will be much better by, say, 2027 or 2028.

Me personally, I prefer to read what people outside of Chicago are saying about White Sox prospects. Not that the analysts at Baseball America are perfect. These are people who devote their lives to amateur and minor league baseball, and as "prospect-heads," even they overrate the future of young players at times. 

That said, I find their commentary interesting. In Baseball America's December/January issue, which is available on newsstands through Feb. 10, they break down the Top 10 prospects for every American League team. After reading through the report, here are five of my thoughts on what they said about the White Sox:

1. Noah Schultz is the consensus top prospect in the organization. The 21-year-old lefty still has only one victory in 33 professional starts, but that's because the Sox don't let him throw many innings. His typical outing lasts four innings. Schultz split time between High-A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham last season, posting a 1.48 ERA with 73 strikeouts and only 17 walks in 61 innings with the Barons. He tops everyone's Sox prospect list now, including Baseball America's, because his fastball velocity ticked up to 95-97 mph last season. He's got two plus pitches now, fastball and slider. He also throws a changeup and a cutter. The changeup needs to get better for him to reach the majors. 

2. Colson Montgomery is described as an "above-average" defender." Montgomery's struggles at the plate were well documented in 2024. He started the season as the top prospect in the system, but he batted just .214/.329/.381 in 130 games at Triple-A Charlotte. He's No. 2 on Baseball America's White Sox list, as the publication cited Montgomery's late-season improvement that coincided with more of an all-fields approach. But interestingly, they lauded his defense as "above average." He was described as having good footwork, positioning and anticipation at shortstop. That's different than what we often hear in Chicago, where some people seem convinced that Montgomery will need to move to third base.

3. This list was published before the Garrett Crochet trade. Notably absent from the White Sox Top 10 list are catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery, who were still with the Boston Red Sox at the time Baseball America went to press.  For the record, Teel was No. 4 on the Boston list, while Braden Montgomery was No. 6. Another catcher, Edgar Quero, is No. 4 on the White Sox list. He is described as Chicago's "catcher of the future." One wonders whether that's still the case with Teel in the fold. Baseball America suggests Teel would need another half-season at Triple-A to "refine his defense." It also believes Quero could use a little more Triple-A time. The White Sox catching situation is going to be among the more interesting storylines surrounding the team coming into the year.

4. Braden Montgomery is a lot better batting left-handed. In reading the scouting report on the newly acquired outfielder, it was noted that he hit .361/.476/.834 with a 16% strikeout rate from the left side, but just .224/.404/.478 with a 28% strikeout rate from the right side during his junior season at Texas A&M. That makes me wonder whether Montgomery's future is as a platoon player, or maybe he should just scrap the whole switch-hitting thing. Either way, Baseball America sees him as a three true outcomes corner outfielder. They don't rule him out as emerging as a big league option by 2026, although we can expect him to start in High-A in 2025.

5. The fifth-best position player prospect in the Sox system is ... Caleb Bonemer? We know the top four are Colson Montgomery, Teel, Quero and Braden Montgomery. And we know the White Sox system is pitching heavy. So, is there anyone else position player-wise? Well, the 19-year-old Bonemer checks in at No. 8 on Baseball America's list. He was just drafted in the second round in 2024. He's likely to be given a full-season assignment at Low-A Kannapolis in 2025. In other words, he's a long ways away in even the most optimistic scenario. Nothing against the kid, but this is further evidence that the Sox have a lot of work to do when it comes to finding more potential major league bats.

Happy New Year from The Baseball Kid

 

Merry Christmas from The Baseball Kid

 

White Sox trade Garrett Crochet to Boston for 4 prospects

Stop me if you've heard this one before: The White Sox traded an ace left-handed starter to the Boston Red Sox for four prospects.

We all remember when Chris Sale was traded on Dec. 6, 2016, to kick off the last rebuild. That didn't work out so well, so we're all left to hope this latest move works a little better.

The Sox sent Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox on Wednesday, in exchange for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez.

You won't get any excitement about prospects from me. Until I see some guys become productive players in Chicago, I'm going to cast a cynical eye toward this move. I've been burned before. That said, here's what we know about the four players acquired:

Teel: The left-handed-hitting catcher is a consensus top 30 prospect in baseball, and he was ranked the No. 4 prospect in the Boston system. A first-round selection in the 2023 draft, the 22-year-old started last season at Double-A Portland, where he batted .299/.390/.462 with 11 homers and 60 RBIs in 84 games. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A Worcester, where the numbers were more modest in a smaller sample: .255/.374/.343 with two homers and 18 RBIs in 28 games.

Teel is an athletic player with a strong arm, and he's described as a good enough receiver that he should be able to stay behind the plate, although he has played some games at corner outfield positions. Note the high on-base percentage at both levels last season. Teel isn't projected to have big power, but we know the Sox have a need for batters who can get on base.

Montgomery: A first-round pick (12th overall) in the 2024 draft, the 21-year-old outfielder has yet to make his professional debut because of a gruesome ankle injury suffered in the College World Series in June. He was the fifth-ranked prospect in the Boston system.

A switch-hitter, Montgomery is a power prospect who projects as a corner outfielder -- most likely right field, as he possesses enough arm strength to play there. He batted .322/.454/.733 with 27 homers and 85 RBIs for Texas A&M University last spring. Most of his power comes from the left side of the plate, so if you want to dream, we know left-handed power plays well at Guaranteed Rate Field.

The question, of course, is how Montgomery recovers from the ankle injury. He's expected to be ready for spring training. We'll see. Again, note the on-base percentage.

Meidroth: The 23-year-old infielder is likely the closest to major league ready of any player the Sox acquired in this deal. Meidroth spent 2024 at Triple-A Worcester, where he batted .293/.407/.401 with seven homers, 57 RBIs and 13 stolen bases. He was the No. 11 player in the Boston system.

Again, note the on-base percentage. Meidroth drew 105 walks during the 2024 season, and he struck out in only 12.7% of his plate appearances. Expect a lot contact, but probably not a lot of hard contact. Meidroth has played second base, shortstop and third base, with his most likely long-term home being second base.

Hey, the Sox have a gaping hole at second base! Getting traded to Chicago might be this kid's lucky day.

Gonzalez: The right-handed pitcher was the No. 14 prospect in the Boston system. Gonzalez, 22, has a fastball that tops out at 98 mph, but to quote Lou Brown, somebody better teach this kid some control before he kills somebody. He walked 46 guys in 83.2 innings at Double-A Portland in 2024. 

Gonzalez went 4-3 with a 4.73 ERA in 24 games, 19 of them starts. The book on him is he throws fastball, slider, change. The slider is a relatively new pitch, and if he can harness it, maybe he sticks as a starter. If not, he's destined for the bullpen.

And he's Venezuelan, which means Ozzie Guillen will love him!

There you have it. That's the best I can do to put a positive spin on the trade. As they always say, it will be years before we can fully judge it. We can fully judge the Sale trade now. It stunk. Hope this one is better.