There are less than three weeks remaining in the regular season, so let's reset where the American League Central Division race stands.
The White Sox took two out of three from the Minnesota Twins over the weekend at Rate Field, ending any realistic chance of the Twins winning the division.
It's a near certainty the division champion will be either the Sox or the Cleveland Guardians.
The Sox stand at 75-68, three games ahead of the Guardians, who lost 6-4 to the Baltimore Orioles on Monday afternoon. Cleveland's record is 73-72. The Sox have 19 games to play; the Guardians have 17.
Here are the remaining schedules for both teams:
Sox: 3 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 at St. Louis, 3 at Cleveland, 4 vs. Detroit, 3 at Kansas City, 3 vs. Colorado
Cleveland: 2 at Baltimore, 3 at Minnesota, 3 vs. White Sox, 3 vs. Athletics, 3 at Boston, 3 at Kansas City
The series at Cleveland from Sept. 14-16 is obviously an important one, as it will decide the tiebreaker. The Sox currently lead the season series, 6-4, and they will need to win one game in that series to secure the tiebreaker. The Guardians would need a series sweep.
But taking a tie out of the equation, here are some various scenarios for each team to win the division outright:
- If the Sox go 7-12, the Guardians would need to go 10-7.
- If the Sox go 8-11, the Guardians would need to go 11-6.
- If the Sox go 9-10, the Guardians would need to go 12-5.
- If the Sox go 10-9, the Guardians would need to go 13-4
- If the Sox go 11-8, the Guardians would need to go 14-3.
- If the Sox go 12-7, the Guardians would need to go 15-2.
I could be wrong, but I think it's reasonable to believe the Sox will win somewhere between seven and 12 of their remaining 19 games.
The math favors the Sox at this stage, but we know Cleveland is capable of getting crazy-hot in September. Just last year, the Guardians closed by winning 20 of their final 27 games. They erased an 11-game lead the Detroit Tigers held on Sept. 4 to claim the division title.
Bottom line: The Sox can't expect to back into this. Cleveland will not go quietly. That said, the Sox should be OK if they continue to play at their current pace and, most importantly, win at least one of three in that series vs. the Guardians.
