Let's stay optimistic that the 2020 season will start someday, even though there's a reasonable chance that it won't.
Michael Kopech recently was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte, which cut the White Sox's roster down to 27, which means we have a reasonable idea what the 26-man roster would look like if the season were to begin.
Here's the way it stands right now:
Pitchers (15): Aaron Bummer, Dylan Cease, Steve Cishek, Alex Colome, Jimmy Cordero, Jace Fry, Carson Fulmer, Lucas Giolito, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Hamilton, Kelvin Herrera, Dallas Keuchel, Reynaldo Lopez, Evan Marshall and Carlos Rodon.
Catchers (2): Yasmani Grandal and James McCann
Infielders (5): Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Danny Mendick and Edwin Encarnacion
Outfielders (5): Adam Engel, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia and Nomar Mazara
Wondering which of these 27 wouldn't make the cut? Welp, Rodon is still recovering from elbow surgery, so he'd be headed to the injured list if the season were to actually begin.
You can look at these other 26, and it's pretty close to your team. Hamilton may end up in Charlotte to get the pitching staff down to 13, and another position player (Nick Madrigal) could be added.
Monday, March 30, 2020
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Thursday, March 12, 2020
When a 9-2 loss is actually a win ...
Michael Kopech |
Each of those three pitchers is coming back from an injury that sidelined them during the early part of camp, and I was eager to see how close they would look to being ready to start the season.
Alas, Mother Nature had other plans.
But, speaking of returns from injury, how about Michael Kopech on Tuesday? Sure, the Sox lost, 9-2, to the Texas Rangers, but it was actually an encouraging day for the South Siders and their fans.
That's because Kopech looked like he did before his elbow injury. He needed only 11 pitches to work a 1-2-3 first inning. His fastball consistently hit 98 mph-plus on the radar gun, and his heater topped out at 101 mph -- his final pitch striking out Greg Bird looking.
After missing the zone on each of his first two pitches, Kopech fired seven of his final nine over the plate and ended the inning quickly.
Kopech admitted that "adrenaline was a factor" with the high velocity, but hey, at least we know it's still there after surgery. It will be an exciting time when Kopech returns to the mound at Guaranteed Rate Field for the first time since 2018.
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Baseball Digest also believing in the White Sox
One of the things I like about the Baseball Digest season preview is it comes out a little later than the other ones. That means it takes trades and other roster moves that happened late in the offseason into account.
For instance, this magazine has Mookie Betts as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers -- not the Boston Red Sox -- and that makes it different than some of the other ones I've read.
I try not to give away too much about these magazines' predictions -- copyright infringement and all -- but it's been quite unusual to read positive thoughts on the White Sox.
Baseball Digest has the Sox finishing second in the American League Central behind the Minnesota Twins, a forecast that is both optimistic and realistic.
The magazine notes that the Sox have the longest postseason drought of any team in their division, and the second-longest drought of any team in the American League. It also refers to "octogenarian chairman Jerry Reinsdorf," which is quite amusing, and notes that Reinsdorf and general Rick Hahn were out to end that postseason drought with significant moves this offseason.
And three of the Baseball Digest's "five rookies to watch" in the AL Central are members of the Sox: Luis Robert, Michael Kopech and Nick Madrigal.
Hey, at least the days of being picked to finish last are gone, right?
For instance, this magazine has Mookie Betts as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers -- not the Boston Red Sox -- and that makes it different than some of the other ones I've read.
I try not to give away too much about these magazines' predictions -- copyright infringement and all -- but it's been quite unusual to read positive thoughts on the White Sox.
Baseball Digest has the Sox finishing second in the American League Central behind the Minnesota Twins, a forecast that is both optimistic and realistic.
The magazine notes that the Sox have the longest postseason drought of any team in their division, and the second-longest drought of any team in the American League. It also refers to "octogenarian chairman Jerry Reinsdorf," which is quite amusing, and notes that Reinsdorf and general Rick Hahn were out to end that postseason drought with significant moves this offseason.
And three of the Baseball Digest's "five rookies to watch" in the AL Central are members of the Sox: Luis Robert, Michael Kopech and Nick Madrigal.
Hey, at least the days of being picked to finish last are gone, right?
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Lucas Giolito, Yasmani Grandal rejoin the active for White Sox
White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito appears to be on track to start Opening Day against the Kansas City Royals.
Giolito, who had been sidelined by a minor ribcage strain, pitched for the first time in a Cactus League game Friday, working the first inning in a 6-3 win over the Cubs. He threw 15 pitches and faced four batters. His only blemish was a HBP to Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber.
He also struck out Sox nemesis Willson Contreras looking on a 3-2 changeup. After the outing, Giolito went to the bullpen to "get his work in" in a more controlled environment, throwing another 20 pitches or so.
Friday was March 6, and if you count off the days -- and you assume that Giolito has four days' rest in between outings -- that lines him up perfectly to make the start against Kansas City on March 26.
Also of note Friday, catcher Yasmani Grandal made his first Cactus League appearance of the spring. Grandal, who has missed time with a calf injury, made three plate appearances. He struck out twice and walked once.
Grandal did not play Saturday, but he was back in the lineup Sunday against the San Diego Padres, catching right-hander Reynaldo Lopez is a split-squad game. Grandal went 1 for 3 with an RBI double and a run scored in a 6-0 Sox win.
On Monday, Grandal served as the designated hitter and had his best game of the spring, going 2 for 3 with a double, a solo home run and two runs scored in a 3-3 tie with the Cincinnati Reds.
We'll know Grandal is ready if he catches back-to-back days. That hasn't happened yet.
Obviously, it goes without saying that the Sox need Grandal healthy and ready to start the season. The "big offseason" doesn't look as good if the big free-agent acquisition opens the season on the injured list.
Giolito, who had been sidelined by a minor ribcage strain, pitched for the first time in a Cactus League game Friday, working the first inning in a 6-3 win over the Cubs. He threw 15 pitches and faced four batters. His only blemish was a HBP to Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber.
He also struck out Sox nemesis Willson Contreras looking on a 3-2 changeup. After the outing, Giolito went to the bullpen to "get his work in" in a more controlled environment, throwing another 20 pitches or so.
Friday was March 6, and if you count off the days -- and you assume that Giolito has four days' rest in between outings -- that lines him up perfectly to make the start against Kansas City on March 26.
Also of note Friday, catcher Yasmani Grandal made his first Cactus League appearance of the spring. Grandal, who has missed time with a calf injury, made three plate appearances. He struck out twice and walked once.
Grandal did not play Saturday, but he was back in the lineup Sunday against the San Diego Padres, catching right-hander Reynaldo Lopez is a split-squad game. Grandal went 1 for 3 with an RBI double and a run scored in a 6-0 Sox win.
On Monday, Grandal served as the designated hitter and had his best game of the spring, going 2 for 3 with a double, a solo home run and two runs scored in a 3-3 tie with the Cincinnati Reds.
We'll know Grandal is ready if he catches back-to-back days. That hasn't happened yet.
Obviously, it goes without saying that the Sox need Grandal healthy and ready to start the season. The "big offseason" doesn't look as good if the big free-agent acquisition opens the season on the injured list.
Monday, March 9, 2020
White Sox make first roster moves of spring training
The White Sox on Friday made their first round of roster cuts. Most notably, No. 5-ranked prospect Jonathan Stiever was reassigned to minor league camp without getting an opportunity to pitch in a Cactus League game.
Stiever, 22, was bothered by soreness during a sideline session, and he was diagnosed with a muscle strain in his right forearm. An MRI showed no problems, and Stiever was shut down for three weeks. He currently is about halfway through that three-week period.
When I made my list of top 10 White Sox prospects, I was a little reluctant to put Stiever up real high on the basis of 10 or 12 good minor league starts at the end of last season. Last year's breakout story can quickly become this year's downer, and we know young pitchers often get their careers derailed by injury.
Here's to hoping this is just a minor blip for Stiever.
The Sox also optioned right-handed reliever Matt Foster to Triple-A Charlotte. Pitchers Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert were optioned to Double-A Birmingham. Both Dunning and Lambert are rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Right-hander Ryan Burr, left-hander Hunter Schryver and first baseman Matt Skole also were reassigned to minor league camp.
Burr spent time in the majors last season, but he also is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Schryver recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is done for this season. Skole, a left-handed hitter who has spent some time in the majors in each of the past two years, is an organizational player who will no doubt begin the season in Triple-A Charlotte.
The Sox now have 60 players in camp.
Stiever, 22, was bothered by soreness during a sideline session, and he was diagnosed with a muscle strain in his right forearm. An MRI showed no problems, and Stiever was shut down for three weeks. He currently is about halfway through that three-week period.
When I made my list of top 10 White Sox prospects, I was a little reluctant to put Stiever up real high on the basis of 10 or 12 good minor league starts at the end of last season. Last year's breakout story can quickly become this year's downer, and we know young pitchers often get their careers derailed by injury.
Here's to hoping this is just a minor blip for Stiever.
The Sox also optioned right-handed reliever Matt Foster to Triple-A Charlotte. Pitchers Dane Dunning and Jimmy Lambert were optioned to Double-A Birmingham. Both Dunning and Lambert are rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Right-hander Ryan Burr, left-hander Hunter Schryver and first baseman Matt Skole also were reassigned to minor league camp.
Burr spent time in the majors last season, but he also is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Schryver recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is done for this season. Skole, a left-handed hitter who has spent some time in the majors in each of the past two years, is an organizational player who will no doubt begin the season in Triple-A Charlotte.
The Sox now have 60 players in camp.
Friday, March 6, 2020
Yoan Moncada, White Sox agree on five-year contract extension
The White Sox on Thursday agreed with third baseman Yoan Moncada on a five-year, $70 million contract extension. The contract includes an option for a sixth year that could make the deal worth $90 million.
The news was first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and MLB Network. The Sox have not formally announced the deal as yet, but I have always found Rosenthal's reporting to be quite credible.
Moncada would have become arbitration-eligible in 2021, and he would have hit free agency in 2024. This contract delays Moncada's free agency by two years. He would hit the open market at age 30, and presumably, this gives the Sox a better shot to get to the World Series and win sometime between now and 2025.
In 2019, Moncada had a breakout campaign in which he hit .315/.367/.548 with 25 home runs, 34 doubles, five triples and 79 RBIs. He also made a smooth transition from second base to third base, surprising many observers (including me) with his defensive competence.
If Moncada continues to perform at that level, getting him at $14 million a year is a steal. There have been rumors all spring of an extension, but most people were thinking eight or nine years, with a total value in excess of $100 million.
At this point, Moncada has played two full seasons in the majors, and he's had one rough year and one excellent year. There is risk involved for both sides, and but I'm guessing Moncada is more like the player he was in 2019 than the player he was in 2018.
If I'm proven correct, the Sox will come out ahead in this deal.
The news was first reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and MLB Network. The Sox have not formally announced the deal as yet, but I have always found Rosenthal's reporting to be quite credible.
Moncada would have become arbitration-eligible in 2021, and he would have hit free agency in 2024. This contract delays Moncada's free agency by two years. He would hit the open market at age 30, and presumably, this gives the Sox a better shot to get to the World Series and win sometime between now and 2025.
In 2019, Moncada had a breakout campaign in which he hit .315/.367/.548 with 25 home runs, 34 doubles, five triples and 79 RBIs. He also made a smooth transition from second base to third base, surprising many observers (including me) with his defensive competence.
If Moncada continues to perform at that level, getting him at $14 million a year is a steal. There have been rumors all spring of an extension, but most people were thinking eight or nine years, with a total value in excess of $100 million.
At this point, Moncada has played two full seasons in the majors, and he's had one rough year and one excellent year. There is risk involved for both sides, and but I'm guessing Moncada is more like the player he was in 2019 than the player he was in 2018.
If I'm proven correct, the Sox will come out ahead in this deal.
Thursday, March 5, 2020
Some starts from actual White Sox starting pitchers
The first eight White Sox Cactus League games were mostly characterized by starts from pitchers who will begin the season in the minor leagues, including two outings by the erstwhile Ross Detwiler.
But the past three days, we've seen Dallas Keuchel, Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease get on the mound, and results for the most part have been good.
Cease was perhaps the most impressive of the three. On Wednesday, he worked four innings in a 5-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers. He allowed one run on three hits -- a solo home run to Keston Hiura -- while striking out five and issuing no walks.
I'm encouraged for two reasons. First, no walks. That really can't be emphasized enough. I really don't care that Cease gave up a home run, because it was a solo home run. Last season, we saw Cease get himself and the team in real trouble by walking a couple of guys, then giving up a home run. Solo home runs are much easier to overcome than three-run shots and grand slams.
Secondly, Cease got through the first two innings unscathed. The home run did not come until the fourth inning. As you may recall, Cease had a 9.00 ERA in the first inning, and a 9.64 ERA during the second inning, in 2019. He has to get out of the habit of putting his team two and three runs down early in games, and so far, he's avoided trouble out of the gate this spring.
The Sox lost, 6-5, to the Oakland A's on Tuesday, but most of the runs were scored late. Lopez pitched three innings, allowing one run on three hits. He struck out three and walked three, and that control is one area Lopez needs to clean up. One walk an inning isn't going to cut it, but the good news is he kept the ball in the yard and missed some bats.
As you may recall, Lopez surrendered 35 home runs in 184 innings pitched in 2019, so if there's one guy on the Sox's staff who needs to focus on not giving up the long ball, it's Lopez. I'd be more concerned about him giving up home runs than I would be Cease.
As for Keuchel, he was as advertised Monday in a 3-1 loss to the San Diego Padres. He pitched to contact and gave up his share of hits -- six in four innings -- but San Diego only scored one run off him. Keuchel struck out only one, but he didn't walk anybody.
That's pretty much what I'm expecting from Keuchel this year -- a lot of balls put in play, but hopefully, it will be a ton of soft contact in the infield. In this outing, Keuchel recorded eight groundball outs, and not a single flyball out.
That's the formula we're looking for from the veteran left-hander.
But the past three days, we've seen Dallas Keuchel, Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease get on the mound, and results for the most part have been good.
Cease was perhaps the most impressive of the three. On Wednesday, he worked four innings in a 5-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers. He allowed one run on three hits -- a solo home run to Keston Hiura -- while striking out five and issuing no walks.
I'm encouraged for two reasons. First, no walks. That really can't be emphasized enough. I really don't care that Cease gave up a home run, because it was a solo home run. Last season, we saw Cease get himself and the team in real trouble by walking a couple of guys, then giving up a home run. Solo home runs are much easier to overcome than three-run shots and grand slams.
Secondly, Cease got through the first two innings unscathed. The home run did not come until the fourth inning. As you may recall, Cease had a 9.00 ERA in the first inning, and a 9.64 ERA during the second inning, in 2019. He has to get out of the habit of putting his team two and three runs down early in games, and so far, he's avoided trouble out of the gate this spring.
The Sox lost, 6-5, to the Oakland A's on Tuesday, but most of the runs were scored late. Lopez pitched three innings, allowing one run on three hits. He struck out three and walked three, and that control is one area Lopez needs to clean up. One walk an inning isn't going to cut it, but the good news is he kept the ball in the yard and missed some bats.
As you may recall, Lopez surrendered 35 home runs in 184 innings pitched in 2019, so if there's one guy on the Sox's staff who needs to focus on not giving up the long ball, it's Lopez. I'd be more concerned about him giving up home runs than I would be Cease.
As for Keuchel, he was as advertised Monday in a 3-1 loss to the San Diego Padres. He pitched to contact and gave up his share of hits -- six in four innings -- but San Diego only scored one run off him. Keuchel struck out only one, but he didn't walk anybody.
That's pretty much what I'm expecting from Keuchel this year -- a lot of balls put in play, but hopefully, it will be a ton of soft contact in the infield. In this outing, Keuchel recorded eight groundball outs, and not a single flyball out.
That's the formula we're looking for from the veteran left-hander.
Wednesday, March 4, 2020
Athlon Sports picks White Sox to earn AL wild card spot
Every season since 1995, there has always been at least one team that makes the playoffs after having a losing record the year before.
Last year, that club was the Minnesota Twins, who went 78-84 in 2018 before making a 23-game improvement to go 101-61 and claim the American League Central Division championship last summer.
It seems as though many prognosticators, much to my surprise, believe the White Sox can be that team to go from losing record to playoffs in 2020. The Sox, of course, were 72-89 in 2019, and they probably would need about a 20-game improvement to get into the playoffs in the American League this year.
As we noted in a previous blog, Lindy's Sports picked the Sox to win the AL Central. I recently received the Athlon Sports season preview in the mail, and while Athlon selects Minnesota to repeat as division champion, it has the Sox finishing second in the division and claiming an AL wild card spot.
The magazine notes that the AL Central is ripe for a surprise contender to emerge, and well, why not the Sox? The Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers are rebuilding, and in Athlon's words, the Cleveland Indians are "counting nickels."
Fellow Sox fans, if you want to get a copy of this magazine, I recommend visiting athlonsports.com and ordering online. On newsstands around here, this magazine features Javier Baez as the bigger photo, not Yoan Moncada.
Me personally, I think Baez gets enough publicity both locally and nationally, so I wanted a copy with my favorite team featured on the cover. So, I ordered the Moncada edition online, and I'm pleased that I did.
The irony in all this: I've received two preview mags in the mail thus far, and both have predicted a playoff season for the Sox, and a non-playoff season for the Cubs. Maybe the Cubs are featured more prominently on covers because their fans buy more magazines that us Sox fans? Not sure ...
Last year, that club was the Minnesota Twins, who went 78-84 in 2018 before making a 23-game improvement to go 101-61 and claim the American League Central Division championship last summer.
It seems as though many prognosticators, much to my surprise, believe the White Sox can be that team to go from losing record to playoffs in 2020. The Sox, of course, were 72-89 in 2019, and they probably would need about a 20-game improvement to get into the playoffs in the American League this year.
As we noted in a previous blog, Lindy's Sports picked the Sox to win the AL Central. I recently received the Athlon Sports season preview in the mail, and while Athlon selects Minnesota to repeat as division champion, it has the Sox finishing second in the division and claiming an AL wild card spot.
The magazine notes that the AL Central is ripe for a surprise contender to emerge, and well, why not the Sox? The Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers are rebuilding, and in Athlon's words, the Cleveland Indians are "counting nickels."
Fellow Sox fans, if you want to get a copy of this magazine, I recommend visiting athlonsports.com and ordering online. On newsstands around here, this magazine features Javier Baez as the bigger photo, not Yoan Moncada.
Me personally, I think Baez gets enough publicity both locally and nationally, so I wanted a copy with my favorite team featured on the cover. So, I ordered the Moncada edition online, and I'm pleased that I did.
The irony in all this: I've received two preview mags in the mail thus far, and both have predicted a playoff season for the Sox, and a non-playoff season for the Cubs. Maybe the Cubs are featured more prominently on covers because their fans buy more magazines that us Sox fans? Not sure ...
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Today's fun fact about White Sox history (Mark Buehrle edition)
Mark Buehrle |
Take this fun fact that was mentioned last week: Mark Buehrle is the only pitcher in Major League history to face the minimum 27 batters three times.
All Sox fans are aware that Buehrle pitched a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 23, 2009.
Buehrle also faced the minimum 27 batters in his other no-hitter, April 18, 2007, against the Texas Rangers. In that game, Buehrle issued one walk (to Sammy Sosa), but he picked Sosa off and faced only three batters in that inning. (Fun fact about me: This game against Texas remains the only time I've witnessed a no-hitter in person.)
But here's the thing I didn't know: Buehrle also faced the minimum 27 batters on July 21, 2004, when he tossed a two-hitter in a 14-0 victory over the Cleveland Indians. Both hits were singles, and both runners were erased on double plays.
Interesting and remarkable. You learn something new every day.
Monday, March 2, 2020
Everyone else has a top 10 White Sox prospects list -- why shouldn't I?
Luis Robert |
The White Sox have a top-heavy farm system, and the higher-end guys figure to graduate to the majors sometime in 2020. No. 1 to No. 4 on their prospect list seems obvious to most people. It's those spots from No. 5 to No. 10 that are the subject of debate.
Since everyone else seems to be taking a kick at the can at how these guys should rate, why shouldn't I throw my two cents in? Here are my top 10 Sox prospects going into the 2020 season:
1. Luis Robert, CF. Duh, right? Robert will not be on these lists much longer. He will start the season as the Opening Day center fielder in Chicago. He's the consensus top prospect in the organization, and he ranks anywhere from No. 2 to No. 6 when you see rankings of the top prospects in all of baseball.
I wish Robert would have been called to the majors last season. His tools are insane -- power, speed, defense, throwing arm -- there's nothing to complain about in any of those areas. The main problem for Robert is he remains a bit of a wild swinger, and I expect MLB pitchers to exploit that early in his career. Eventually, he'll make the adjustment, but I wanted that learning curve to start in 2019, during games that were inconsequential in the standings.
Now, Robert will have to learn in the 2020 season, during which the Sox have expectations of being much more competitive. We'll see how he holds up. Certainly, there's nothing left to prove in minor-league levels. Robert hit .328/.376/.624 with 32 home runs and 36 steals across three levels last year. Yep, he's ready for his shot.
2. Michael Kopech, RHP. Kopech is a year and a half removed from elbow surgery. His fastball is back where it should be, sitting between 95 and 100 mph. Will the command be there after such a long layoff from competitive ball? Maybe not, but given Kopech's big fastball and his quality secondary pitches -- including a slider and a change -- I don't have any doubt he's one of the five best starting pitchers the Sox have.
But, the Sox will show "an abundance of caution" with Kopech. He's going to start the year in Triple-A Charlotte, but I don't expect him to be there for long. I'd be stunned if he isn't in Chicago by June 1, assuming good health. Even though the Sox insist that Kopech isn't on an innings limit this season, we know they aren't going to overtax him, so I just assume he throw his innings with the Sox later in the season, as opposed to early in the cold, rainy weather in April.
3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B. The third overall pick in the 2019 draft hit his first spring training home run on Friday, and he appears slated to start the season in Double-A Birmingham. Vaughn put up monstrous numbers over three collegiate seasons at California; his career slash line there was .374/.495/.688.
Unlike some other Sox prospects, Vaughn seems willing to take a walk. He had a .384 OBP in 55 games in the Sox's minor-league system in 2019. He has a simple swing and a disciplined approach that will make pitchers work. Obviously, as someone who is limited to first base as a defender, he'll have to hit to stick in the majors. But there's no reason to believe he won't. Maybe we'll see him at the end of 2020, or in 2021.
4. Nick Madrigal, 2B. He won't hit for power, no, but I'm not sure why I should be concerned about that. In a projected lineup that includes Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, Robert, Edwin Encarnacion, Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, do the Sox need Madrigal to hit balls off the wall and over it? Not in my world.
I'd make Madrigal the starting second baseman from Opening Day on this season. He can field the position at an elite level, and he almost never strikes out -- you may have heard he only struck out 16 times in 532 plate appearances in 2019. He hit .311/.377/.414 across three levels last season, so I don't think there's a whole heckuva lot for him to prove in the minors. I hope the Sox don't send him back to the minors for service time reasons. We should be past that point in the rebuild.
5. Jonathan Stiever, RHP. I'm always wary of hyping guys over 10 or 12 good starts, but I ended up putting Stiever at No. 5 on this list mostly because his good health (knock on wood) separates him from other Sox prospects. Stiever had a rough start to 2019 at Class-A Kannapolis, where he went 4-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 14 starts.
But something clicked when Stiever got promoted to High-A Winston-Salem, where he went 6-4 with a 2.15 ERA across 12 starts. Stiever's fastball sits in the low 90s, and he's got a good curve. His slider and change are just average, so can he develop a third pitch? And are the gains he made last season sustainable? Stiever figures to start the season in Double-A Birmingham.
6. Dane Dunning, RHP. I had thoughts of putting Dunning at No. 5 on this list, because I'm reasonable certain he'll contribute at the MLB level once he gets healthy. I don't think he has the upside Stiever has, however, and these lists often are about upside. Dunning is recovering from Tommy John surgery and hopes to return to affiliated ball by about June 1.
We could see Dunning in Chicago by the second half of this season. While he's not going to overpower anybody, he has three pitches he can throw for strikes, and well, that's something. A lot of times, guys can stick at the back of the rotation if they can consistently pound the zone with multiple pitches.
7. Luis Alexander Basabe, OF. Basabe's breakout 2018 that saw him hit 15 home runs and earn a spot in the Futures Game has not been forgotten, despite an injury-plagued 2019 season. A broken hamate bone robbed him of his power last season, when he hit only three home runs.
Basabe's slash line last year was .246/.324/.336, and certainly, Birmingham is not a good place for hitters. But, other Sox prospects have produced for the Barons on their way to the majors, and Basabe needs to do the same. The key is lowering his strikeout rate, which was hovering about 30 percent throughout much of last season. Basabe has speed and good defensive tools, so the question is whether the bat comes around.
8. Zack Collins, C. Collins has to get some points because he made it to the majors last season, although his questionable defensive skills behind the plate are likely to send him back to Triple-A to start 2020. Collins received two opportunities in Chicago in 2019, and the first was a disaster. He went 2 for 26 in nine games and got sent back down.
When he came back in September, he had made some adjustments, and it looked better. He slashed .233/.343/.417 with two homers, three doubles, a triple, nine RBIs and nine walks in 71 plate appearances. He also struck out 25 times, which remains a concern, but you figure the Sox will be slow to give up on a left-handed bat and a former first-round draft pick.
9. Blake Rutherford, OF. Hey, let's go wishcasting here. I asked about Rutherford at SoxFest, and director of player development Chris Getz expressed optimism that Rutherford started to turn a corner the second half of last season at Double-A Birmingham. He hit .307/.364/.404 over the last three months of 2019.
That wasn't enough to erase the hideous .185/.226/.291 line he had going into June. We'll keep an eye on Rutherford early in the season to see if he can hold onto his second-half gains. One big problem: He lacks the defensive skill set to play anything other than a corner outfield spot, and he has little power -- only seven home runs last season. He's added 10 to 12 pounds over the offseason, and we'll see if that makes a difference.
10. Matt Thompson, RHP. Just for grins, let's throw a high school pitcher in here, if for no other reason that I'm not high on anybody else. Thompson was the Sox's second-round pick in 2019, and some struggles during his senior season allegedly caused him to take a tumble out of the first round. He's an athletic pitcher with a mid-90s fastball, so we'll see where that goes in the coming years. Realistically, a guy drafted out of high school needs at least four years to make the majors.
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