Tuesday, November 28, 2023

Minnesota Twins lose 40% of their starting rotation to free agency

The Minnesota Twins were not the strongest division champion in 2023. They won the American League Central with an 87-75 record. That's nothing special, but nobody else in the division managed to finish above .500.

Well, the Twins might not even be that strong in 2024, with their ownership deciding a cut in payroll is in order.

And now Minnesota has lost 40% of its starting rotation in free agency within a period of about 36 hours.

Kenta Maeda on Sunday agreed to terms with the Detroit Tigers on a two-year, $24 million contract. On Monday, Sonny Gray joined the St. Louis Cardinals on a three-year, $75 million deal.

The Cardinals' projected rotation of Gray, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz and Kyle Gibson probably averages about 35 years old, which is weird, but we're not too worried about St. Louis here.

We're looking at the Twins, who still have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in their rotation. The other two spots, who knows right now? Is that good enough to repeat as division winners? Possibly.

The Tigers added Maeda to a rotation that likely includes Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Reese Olson. Will Detroit be able to keep free agent lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who was their team leader in starts (26), wins (13), strikeouts (143) and ERA (3.30) last season?

If yes, maybe Detroit, which was 78-84 a year ago, is positioned to take control of the AL Central.

And isn't it pathetic the White Sox aren't in this conversation? There is still a lot of offseason left, but you're again looking at a division that could be won with a mid-80s win total. Yet 85 wins feels like the unreachable star for the Sox.

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Sources: Paul DeJong to sign one-year deal with White Sox

Paul DeJong
Give White Sox general manager Chris Getz credit for this: He said he would improve the middle infield defense this offseason, and he has acquired two plus defensive players before Thanksgiving.

According to sources, the Sox are signing 30-year-old veteran shortstop Paul DeJong to a one-year deal. The contract is pending a physical, which reportedly will occur Monday.

Much like second baseman Nicky Lopez, who was acquired from the Atlanta Braves last week in the Aaron Bummer deal, DeJong is going to make the plays. He totaled 9 outs above average in 2023, as did Lopez. But much like Lopez, he can't hit.

Here is DeJong's OPS+ over his seven-year career:

  • 2017: 121
  • 2018: 102
  • 2019: 99
  • 2020: 87
  • 2021: 85
  • 2022: 52
  • 2023: 66

DeJong was an All-Star in 2019 when he hit 30 home runs, but that was the year of the juiced baseball. The decline is clear in the years since. 

Over the past three years, DeJong is batting .192/.265/.353 in 302 games. In 2023, he bounced from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Toronto Blue Jays to the San Francisco Giants. He batted .207/.258/.355 with 14 homers and 38 RBIs.

Not promising, right? But here's the funny thing. Actually, it's not that funny, but DeJong was a better player than Tim Anderson last year. He out-homered him 14-1. He had a higher OPS than Anderson, .612 to .582. As mentioned, DeJong's OPS+ was 66. Anderson's was 60. DeJong's WAR was a terrible -0.5, but Anderson's was a disgusting -2.0.

None of this is an endorsement of the DeJong signing. The guy isn't very good, but these numbers show just how bad it got with Anderson last year.

The best you can hope for here is that DeJong holds shortstop down for long enough that top prospect Colson Montgomery is able to complete his development in the minor leagues.

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Reynaldo Lopez, Lance Lynn headed to new teams

Lance Lynn is going back where he started.
Two former White Sox pitchers agreed to terms on new contracts with new teams Monday.

Reynaldo Lopez is headed to the Atlanta Braves on a three-year, $30 million contract. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn is going to the St. Louis Cardinals. He's got a one-year deal worth $11 million, with incentives that could earn him as much as $14 million. The contract also includes an option for 2025 that could increase the value to $25 million.

Lopez, who turns 30 in January, bounced from the White Sox to the Los Angeles Angels to the Cleveland Guardians last season. After a rough start with the Sox, his final season numbers don't look too bad -- 3-7 with a 3.27 ERA in 68 games, with six saves. Lopez fanned 83 batters in 66 innings.

Feel free to insert the joke here about the Braves wishing to re-create the Sox bullpen. Lopez rejoins his former teammate Aaron Bummer, whom the Sox traded to Atlanta late last week.

But in a different twist, it appears the Braves are interested in possibly making Lopez a starter. According to a tweet sent Monday by Ken Rosenthal, Lopez will prepare this offseason as if he will be a member of the rotation, and Atlanta will explore the option in spring training.

Lopez hasn't been a full-time starting pitcher since 2019. That didn't work out for him in Chicago, but if he makes it work in Atlanta, that would justify the investment the Braves have made here. If Lopez is just going to be a seventh-inning reliever or something similar, you can find guys to do that role for less than $10 million AAV.

Lynn, 36, made 32 starts last season -- 21 with the Sox and 11 with the Los Angeles Dodgers -- but that's one of the few positives he can take from his 2023 campaign. He went 13-11, but had an unsightly 5.73 ERA. He had a -0.8 WAR and gave up a league-high 44(!) homers over 183.2 innings. 

The Cardinals know Lynn well. He pitched in St. Louis from 2011-17 and won a World Series there in 2011. No doubt, the club is hoping the veteran has at least one decent year left in his arm.

In other starting pitching news, a major name agreed to a contract over the weekend. Aaron Nola is staying with the Philadelphia Phillies for seven years and $172 million.

What might this mean for White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, whose name has been mentioned in trade rumors

There are still some good free agent pitchers out there, including NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, World Series champion Jordan Montgomery and Japanese import Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Nola has set the market for those guys by agreeing on a contract worth $24.5 million AAV.

Meanwhile, Cease is not a free agent. He's arbitration eligible with a suggested salary of $8.8 million. He has two years of team control remaining.

If Lynn can pull in $11 million in free agency coming of a rough year, then Cease is a tremendous value in this marketplace. Sox general manager Chris Getz should keep that in mind, if he is indeed entertaining trade offers for Cease.

Monday, November 20, 2023

White Sox trade Aaron Bummer to Atlanta Braves for 5 players

It doesn't qualify as a "haul," but it was still surprising to see the White Sox acquire five players in exchange for Aaron Bummer.

The Sox on Thursday sent the left-hander reliever to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for pitchers Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster and Riley Gowens, and infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake.

Why is it not a haul? Well, all five of these players the Sox acquired have some significant flaw in their games. That doesn't mean these guys couldn't help on the South Side. They might.

But let's just all understand that these players were excess on the Atlanta 40-man roster. Soroka and Lopez were non-tender candidates, in fact, so I don't think the Braves look at any of these guys as big losses.

That said, Bummer's usefulness had come to an end with the Sox. With 2024 projected as a retooling season, if not a rebuilding season, what's the wisdom in paying a relief pitcher a $5.5 million salary to protect leads that don't exist?

Here are a few more thoughts about each of the six players in the trade:

Bummer: Most Sox fans are happy to be done with the 30-year-old after he went 5-5 with an ugly 6.79 ERA in 61 appearances in 2023. Bummer issued an absurdly high 5.6 walks per nine innings, and his 1.526 WHIP isn't what you want from a late-inning reliever. 

Still, the statheads point to his 3.58 FIP as a sign that Bummer pitched in hard luck. In their tweet announcing the trade, the Braves said, "His barrel percentage of just 2.7% ranked in the 99th percentile among pitchers in baseball, while his ground ball rate of 60.1% was in the 97th."

Fair enough. It's not hard to envision Bummer performing better in 2024 with a better infield defense behind him. However, Atlanta fans should know that Bummer is a terrible fielding pitcher, so he does himself no favors when he's fumbling around some of that weak contact he induces. And his walks will drive you crazy. 

Soroka: Injuries, injuries and more injuries. Soroka finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2019, when he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts with the Braves. However, he's only pitched 46 innings combined in the four years since. Soroka has torn his Achilles' tendon twice, which caused him to not throw a pitch at any level in both 2021 and 2022. He was 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA in seven games (6 starts) with the Braves in 2023. This is a talented pitcher, but who knows whether he'll be on the mound? 

Shuster: The 25-year-old began the 2023 season as the top prospect in the Atlanta system. But the left-hander fell on hard times last season. He went 5-6 with a 5.01 ERA at Triple-A Gwinnett, and 4-3 with a 5.81 ERA in 11 starts with the Braves. The strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors was not good -- 30 strikeouts against 26 walks in 52.2 innings. At this point, Shuster is a reclamation project.

Lopez: Sox fans rolled their eyes at the acquisition of the former Kansas City infielder. As most everyone knows, Lopez is a local guy. He graduated from Naperville Central High School. He also played for manager Pedro Grifol with the Royals, and everyone is sick of more Kansas City people coming to Chicago. Lopez is a lousy hitter, as his career .249/.312/.319 slash line in five MLB seasons shows. However, he is a plus defender, especially at second base. He can also play shortstop or third base in a pinch, and do it competently. Unlike a lot of players on the Sox roster, Lopez has at least one high-end skill that can help a team: his glove. From that perspective, he's probably getting more crap than he deserves.

Shewmake: The left-handed-hitting shortstop was Atlanta's first-round pick in the 2019 draft. But other than a brief two-game stint in 2023, he hasn't cracked the majors. Much like Lopez, he can field his position. He's got sure hands at shortstop, but he just isn't a very good hitter. His slash line at Triple-A Gwinnett last season was .234/.299/.407. If you're a glass-half-full person, that .407 slugging percentage isn't half bad for a glove-first player. Shewmake totaled 16 homers and 69 RBIs last season. Most likely, he's a depth player. And if he helps prevent the Sox from prematurely rushing top prospect Colson Montgomery to the majors, then he'll have done his job.

Gowens: Another local product here. Gowens is a Libertyville native who pitched at the University of Illinois. The right-hander worked exclusively as a starter in college, going 9-12 with a 5.69 ERA in 37 starts over three seasons. The Braves selected him in the ninth round of the 2023 draft. He appeared in five games, three of them starts, in the Atlanta system last year. He threw the ball well -- a 1.15 ERA over 15.2 innings. Gowens is likely destined for A ball in 2024. He'll be old for the level at age 24.

What's the best-case outcome for the Sox here? It would be nice if they can get at least one back-end starter out of this deal -- either Soroka gets healthy or Shuster improves. And it would be nice if at least one of Lopez or Shewmake helps solidify the Sox's leaky middle infield defense. 

Really, if two of the five players help the Sox, call the trade a win.

Thursday, November 16, 2023

White Sox rebuilding fail: A look back at the 2018 draft

Tanking has become a popular strategy across professional sports over the past decade. It probably doesn't work as well in baseball as it does in football, basketball or hockey, but that hasn't stopped teams from trying it.

In 2017 and 2018, the White Sox were rebuilding, but it's fair to say they were tanking -- setting their roster up to lose, in order to get a high pick in the next year's draft.

The Sox went 67-95 in 2017, the fourth-worst record in Major League Baseball. That meant they had the No. 4 overall pick in the 2018 draft, and drafted near the top of all the subsequent rounds.

For tanking to work, a team must make good draft picks and develop that talent. Here's a list of the 40 players the Sox took in that 2018 draft. Players currently on the 40-man roster are in all caps and bolded:

We always say you can't judge a draft until you get a few years down the road. Well, we're five years down the road from this draft, and I would say it was poor. The Sox didn't get a single impact talent for their tanking efforts during the 2017 season.

Fourteenth-rounder Martin made 14 appearances and started nine games for the 2022 Sox, but he missed the entire 2023 season with Tommy John surgery. That's the closest thing we've had to a success story here.

Gonzalez, the 18th-rounder, has appeared in 86 games across parts of the past three seasons and slashed .222/.239/.361. He missed most of the 2023 season with a shoulder injury. He profiles as a career utility player, if he's lucky.

Ramsey, the 23rd-rounder, made it to the majors last year after the Sox sold off half their pitching staff at the trade deadline. His ERA was 5.85 over 21 games, but honestly, anything you get out of a guy drafted that late is a bonus.

The real issue here is the top of this draft. Madrigal made it to the big leagues in 2020 and started for the Sox in 2021 before tearing his hamstring in June. He and sixth-round pick Heuer, who also made it to the bigs in 2020, were shipped to the Cubs at the trade deadline for reliever Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel was a disaster for the Sox and departed in free agency after the 2021 season. Madrigal is an injury-prone utility guy for the Cubs, and Heuer has not pitched in the majors in either of the past two seasons because of injury.

Second-round pick Walker was traded to the Texas Rangers in December 2019 for outfielder Nomar Mazara. The deal did not work out for either side. Mazara slumped throughout the pandemic-shortened 2020 season with the Sox, and Walker appeared in just five games with the Rangers in 2022 -- going 1 for 16. He is no longer with the Texas organization. In fact, he spent most of 2023 at High-A West Michigan, an affiliate of the Detroit Tigers.

Third-rounder Pilkington was traded to Cleveland at the deadline in 2021 for second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Pilkington appeared in 16 games (11 starts) with the Guardians, but eventually was designated for assignment. Hernandez did not play well down the stretch for the 2021 Sox and left in free agency after that season.

Fifth-rounder Stiever made two starts for the 2020 Sox, and one relief appearance in 2021. His career ERA is 14.21. Injuries ruined any shot he might have had, and he was outrighted off the roster.

The sad truth for the Sox is this draft was part of their rebuilding failure. None of these players helped the team, either on the field or in trades to acquire talent. It's pretty much a disaster, as a matter of fact.

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Jake Eder, Cristian Mena added to White Sox 40-man-roster

The White Sox on Tuesday added pitchers Jake Eder and Cristian Mena to their 40-man roster. The move prevents the two from possibly being selected by another team in the Rule 5 draft.

Eder, 24, is the left-hander the Sox acquired at the trade deadline from the Miami Marlins in exchange for third baseman Jake Burger. Since joining the organization, Eder has struggled. 

He made five starts at Double-A Birmingham, going 0-3 with an 11.25 ERA. After a reset at the Sox's pitching lab, Eder was assigned to the Glendale Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League. His results were marginally improved over six apperances, five of them starts. His ERA was 6.71, but he struck out 16 batters over 17.2 innings.

Eder is currently ranked as the No. 5 prospect in the Sox organization.

Mena, 20, made 23 starts at Double-A Birmingham this season before being promoted to Triple-A Charlotte, where he started four games. Across those 27 appearances, he went 8-7 with a 4.85 ERA. He led all Sox minor league pitchers with 156 strikeouts and 133.2 innings pitched. Those 27 starts were also an organization high.

The right-hander is currently the No. 10 prospect in the organization.

Neither of these two players is ready to pitch in the majors right now. It's reasonable to believe both will be members of the Charlotte rotation when the 2024 season starts. 

It seems unlikely that either would have been selected in the Rule 5 draft, but from the Sox perspective, why take the risk? They have the space on the 40-man roster, and typically, pitchers are more vulnerable to being plucked in the Rule 5 draft -- especially by rebuilding teams. In fact, that's a strategy the rebuilding Sox should consider.

The 40-man roster now has 37 players.

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

White Sox announce 2024 coaching staff; Pedro Grifol sadly still manager

There was a brief moment on Monday where White Sox fans could dream of having a competent field manager.

The New York Mets hired Carlos Mendoza to be their manager. The Cleveland Guardians hired Stephen Vogt. And Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeted that Craig Counsell would manage *some team* in 2024, and while it would not be the Mets or Guardians, it would be a team with an existing manager.

Oh.

For about 15 minutes, Twitter lit up with Sox fans hoping that Pedro Grifol would be launched, and that Counsell would come to the South Side.

During that time, I tweeted the following:

Replacing Grifol with Counsell would be the sort of move that would make me reconsider buying a ticket plan. But I don’t see it happening. My first thought here was, “Bye bye, Grampa Rossy.” Either the Cubs or Yankees will do this.

Sure enough, moments later we learned the Cubs had launched David Ross and made Counsell the highest-paid manager in baseball -- five years, $40 million. 

I'm not sure any manager is worth that kind of money, but it's still a good move and a clear upgrade for the Cubs. After three straight years of either being out of the race or a faux contender at best, I expect the contention window to reopen on the North Side in 2024. 

Meanwhile, the Sox will continue their perpetual rebuilding with the following coaching staff:

If you've got any idea what a "Major League coach" does, please tell me. The most interesting name on the list, to me, is Thames, who becomes the third hitting coach the Sox have had in three seasons.

Fans have pointed out that Thames was the hitting coach for a failed Los Angeles Angels team in 2023, and while that's true, he had some success as the hitting coach for the New York Yankees from 2017 to 2021.

Assuming Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn are still on the roster for 2024, can Thames get them to start hitting the ball in the air again? Will we ever see an uptick in power and plate discipline with the Sox? Those are some of my key questions.

Monday, November 6, 2023

White Sox decline 2024 contract option on Tim Anderson

Tim Anderson
As recently as a year ago, some might have said Tim Anderson was the face of the Chicago White Sox. Now, he's off the team.

The Sox on Saturday announced that they declined the $14 million club option on Anderson for the 2024 season. Instead, they bought him out for $1 million. He is a free agent.

Anderson played for the Sox for eight seasons, and in many ways, his South Side tenure was a victory. Quite a few of the franchise's first-round draft picks have amounted to little, but Anderson was far from a bust. 

He had three excellent seasons between 2019 and 2021, batting over .300 in every one of those years. He won the American League batting title in 2019 with a .335 average. 

In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he won an AL Silver Slugger award after posting a .322/.357/.529 slash line. Following that season, he finished seventh in the AL MVP voting.

His game-winning homer in the 2021 Field of Dreams Game is one of the franchise's signature moments.

Anderson twice made the All-Star team -- 2021 and 2022 -- and he started at shortstop for the AL in the 2022 midsummer classic. He also represented Team USA in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

However, professional sports is "What have you done for me lately?" Anderson slumped badly the second half of the 2022 season and had the worst year of his career in 2023.

He batted a terrible .245/.286/.296 in 2023, and unfortunately, it doesn't seem as though this is a one-year anomaly. Dating back to June 2022, Anderson is batting .246/.286/.295. At some point, it's no longer a slump, and that's who you are now.

In 524 plate appearances in 2023, Anderson hit only one home run. Injuries have mounted, as he hasn't played more than 123 games in any of the past five seasons. And his defense? Oh boy. His SABR defensive index for 2023 was negative-7.3. I don't always know how they calculate that stuff, but that figure is bad, and the eye test tells us that Anderson's glove is in severe decline.

You add all this up, and the end result is the Sox parting ways with a player who will turn 31 next season.

I know what some are saying: How could the Sox lose Anderson for nothing? Well, I don't think there's a huge market for a shortstop who is no longer playing well in any aspect of the game.

On Friday, as expected, the Sox announced they were declining their 2024 team option on Liam Hendriks. They also announced that pitcher Mike Clevinger is opting out of his 2024 contract and electing free agency.

It was notable that announcements were made about those two players at the same time, while nothing was said about Anderson.

On Friday, I thought to myself that one of two things must be true: 1) The Sox were planning to retain Anderson, or 2) The Sox were trying to trade Anderson.

Thought No. 2 was correct.

If you've been following the transaction wire, you might have noticed the Milwaukee Brewers traded outfielder Mark Canha to the Detroit Tigers for a prospect. The Brewers decided they did not want to pick up Canha's $11.5 million option for 2024, so they moved him to the Tigers, who were willing to pick up the option.

I believe the Sox spent Friday trying to work out a similar deal for Anderson, but they found no team willing to take him at a price of $14 million. So, they chose to cut ties.

Honestly, that's the right thing for general manager Chris Getz to do if he wants someone other than Anderson to be his shortstop in 2024. The whole idea of picking up Anderson's option and then trying to trade him is an accident waiting to happen.

It takes a willing trade partner to swing a deal, and there's a strong chance that there is no such partner, especially given the contract involved. Then you run the risk of going into next season with an unhappy player who knows he isn't wanted. That's the worst-case scenario.

There's always a chance that Anderson will re-sign in Chicago for less money later in the offseason, but the guess here is this is a permanent goodbye. I expect someone else at shortstop for the Sox when the 2024 season begins.

Thursday, November 2, 2023

Rangers beat Diamondbacks in 5-game World Series

Our congratulations go out to the Texas Rangers, who are the 2023 World Series champions after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks, 5-0, in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

The Rangers took the series, 4 games to 1, and this is the first time in team history that they have won the World Series.

Sure, the ratings sucked, but so what? I don't work for Fox, and I'm happy to see a different team win for a change.

The Rangers won it with their stars. Shortstop Corey Seager was named World Series MVP after homering three times in the five-game series. He had 16 total bases and a 1.137 OPS during that span.

Marcus Semien had five RBIs in two swings in Game 4. He had a two-run-triple and a three-run homer in the first three innings as the Rangers raced out to a 10-0 lead in an eventual 11-7 win. Semien put the clinching Game 5 out of reach with a two-run homer that took the score from 3-0 to 5-0.

American League Championship Series MVP Adolis Garcia strained his oblique in Game 3 and did not play again. But he won the Rangers the first game of the series, 6-5, with a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 11th inning. That blast came after Seager hit a two-run homer to tie the game in the ninth.

The Rangers also had some unsung heroes. How about relief pitcher Josh Sborz? During the regular season, Sborz was mediocre at best -- he went 6-7 with a 5.50 ERA in 44 appearances. But in the playoffs, Sborz tossed 12 innings across 10 appearances. He allowed only one run. He capped it off with a seven-out save in Game 5, striking out Ketel Marte looking for the final out of the season.

For Seager, it was his second World Series MVP. He also won it with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020. He becomes only the fourth player in baseball history to win multiple World Series MVP awards. The others are Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson and Reggie Jackson. All three of those players are in the Hall of Fame.

Texas manager Bruce Bochy captured his fourth World Series championship. He won three of them with the San Francisco Giants -- 2010, 2012 and 2014. Bochy's clubs are now 17-4 in games where they have an opportunity to clinch. He's 6-0 lifetime as a manager in Game 7s, including the Rangers' win over the Houston Astros in the ALCS this season.

The Rangers finished the postseason an astonishing 11-0 on the road. They were only 2-4 at home in the playoffs. They'll be remembered as a team that capitalized on "road team advantage." The previous record for road victories in a single playoff run was eight. I'm thinking the new record of 11 will stand for a while.