Merry Christmas from The Baseball Kid

 

'Winter with the White Sox' apparently replacing SoxFest

The White Sox haven't conducted SoxFest since 2020, and there won't be such an event this January either.

However, there will be a "Winter with the White Sox" gathering for season ticket holders on Jan. 26, 2024. I received a "save the date" email on Tuesday afternoon. 

This is a little surprising because I have not renewed my season tickets for the 2024 season, and frankly, I do not intend to renew. I do not expect to be included on emails such as this. 

Perhaps they are trying to entice me to renew by offering me access to this special event. That will not work.

It's bizarre for the Sox to send a "save the date" without telling potential attendees what the venue will be, or what the event will entail.

I mean, are they going to host this at Guaranteed Rate Field? It's a little cold there in January, right? Maybe they'll have the event in Nashville, since Jerry Reinsdorf wants to move the team there, LOL.

To be honest, even if I were invited, I don't think I want to go to this event. I'm not excited about the 2024 Sox. They haven't made any impact acquisitions this offseason, coming off a 61-101 season. And that, ultimately, is the reason I'm not renewing my season tickets. It isn't fun to be a fan of this organization anymore.

I will be interested to hear what type of activities they will be offering at this occasion. Here are a few guesses:

• Meet your ticket representative and discuss upgrading your seats!
• Purchase a spring training travel package now! See Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Camelback Ranch (and the Sox too)!
• Buy discounted merchandise! You will never get a better deal on Ronald Belisario's game-worn pants from 2014!
• Enter a raffle to win a White Sox bobblehead! Multiple winners will be drawn! (We have to get rid of these damn Yasmani Grandal bobbles sometime.)
• Meet "White Sox legend" Ron Kittle! Sure his career WAR is like 4.7, but he won American League Rookie of the Year 40 years ago! Bring your kids for autographs, even though Ronny retired 20 to 25 years before they were born!

That's the kind of stuff the Sox generally come up with these days. They are simply out of ideas. I wish I had better things to say about the organization, but it's just a sorry state of affairs.

Notice how I managed to work Ohtani into this blog. The metrics show that mentioning him increases traffic by leaps and bounds. 

You don't think people are actually visiting this site because they enjoy reading about the Sox, do you?

Shohei Ohtani defers 97% of his $700M contract with Dodgers

It comes as no surprise that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But the dollar figure gave a lot of observers some sticker shock: 10 years, $700 million.

Previously, the biggest outlay in baseball history had gone to Ohtani's former teammate with the Los Angeles Angels, Mike Trout, whose contract calls for $426.5 million over 12 years.

This deal obviously blows that out of the water, but it comes with an interesting twist: Ohtani is deferring $680 million of that money.

The two-time MVP will earn just $2 million per season from now until 2033. Then the Dodgers will owe him $68 million annually every year from 2034 until 2043.

Why do this? It's all about taxes -- the competitive balance tax and income tax. The competitive balance tax payroll for each team typically uses the average annual value of contracts, which is $70 million in this case, but there's a discount for deferred money.

I'm not a good accountant, so I'm not sure how we arrive at this figure, but media reports say Ohtani's cost toward the competitive balance tax payroll with be $46 million. Yeah, that's a lot less than $70 million.

If you add up the contracts for Ohtani and other Dodgers stars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, they account for about $100 million of Los Angeles' competitive balance tax payroll. The luxury tax kicks in at $237 million, so the Dodgers still have room to work to fill out their roster.

Also, presumably, Ohtani will moved back to his native Japan after he retires. I don't know what income taxes are there, but California is a highly taxed state. There might be some savings there if he defers his income until later.

What's the risk for Ohtani? Well, he's not collecting interest on these deferred dollars. With inflation, $68 million in 2043 probably won't go as far as it will in 2024 dollars. But maybe that's a ridiculous concern, given the absurd figures we're talking about here. And Ohtani is expected to make upward of $45 million per season in endorsements, so he's going to have plenty of income well beyond his base salary.

I've seen a lot of comments online from people who think this is "unfair" and "bad for baseball" and whatnot. I think that remains to be seen. Ohtani is a unicorn player, an elite hitter and an elite pitcher all in one. I'd be shocked if this sort of contract becomes common. Most players aren't going to be willing to accept these kinds of deferrals, and most teams aren't going to be willing to give them.

Mostly, I think the people who are upset are just mad that Ohtani is not on their favorite team. It's clear that Ohtani is structuring his contract to give the Dodgers a better chance to win. He wants to go to the World Series. The Dodgers are trying to win a World Series, and they've done nothing here that violates the collective bargaining agreement.

I wish my favorite team was trying to win the World Series.

2024 MLB Draft Lottery results

Major League Baseball held its Draft Lottery on Tuesday at the Winter Meetings. And here is your 2024 draft order:

1. Guardians
2. Reds
3. Rockies
4. Athletics
5. White Sox
6. Royals
7. Cardinals
8. Angels
9. Pirates
10. Nationals
11. Tigers
12. Red Sox
13. Giants
14. Cubs
15. Mariners
16. Marlins
17. Brewers
18. Rays
19. Mets
20. Blue Jays
21. Twins
22. Orioles
23. Dodgers
24. Braves
25. Padres
26. Yankees
27. Phillies
28. Astros
29. D-backs
30. Rangers
31. D-backs
32. Orioles
33. Twins

The Sox had the fourth-worst record in baseball in 2023, and thus had the fourth-best odds for getting the No. 1 pick at 14.7%. Instead, they drop down to the No. 5 spot.

In addition, the Sox will pick no higher than No. 10 in the 2025 draft, because large-market teams cannot be in the lottery in back-to-back seasons, according to the terms of the league's collective bargaining agreement.

Keep that in mind next season, when casual fans excuse terrible play and justify mounting losses by saying, "At least the Sox will get a better draft pick." Actually, no they will not.

And, of course, AL Central rival Cleveland gets the top selection, even though the Guardians only had a 2.0% chance of doing so. Nobody can say it was fixed.

Source: White Sox to sign KBO pitching star Erick Fedde

The White Sox on Tuesday agreed with right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde on a two-year, $15 million contract, according to a source.

Fedde, 30, pitched parts of six seasons with the Washington Nationals from 2017-22. He appeared in 102 games, including 88 starts, and went 21-33 with a 5.41 ERA. He had a rough season in 2022, going 6-13 with a 5.81 ERA. 

Those struggles were so bad, in fact, that Fedde found himself pitching in the Korean Baseball Organization in 2023.

That turned out to be a good career move. Fedde tossed 180.1 innings for the NC Dinos of the KBO, going 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA. He struck out 209 batters and walked just 35. Fedde won the Choi Dong-won Award for his efforts, the KBO equivalent of the Cy Young. 

Knowing that Fedde stunk the last time he pitched in the U.S., why should Sox fans be optimistic about this move? Well, senior pitching advisor Brian Bannister was on the platform formally known as Twitter to explain the move to fans. 

Bannister noted that Fedde works out in the offseason with San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb, and the two made the exact same changes to their pitching arsenal in recent times. 

Fedde has changed his slider to more of a sweeper, and he adjusted his changeup grip, as well, making the pitch have an action more like a split-finger fastball. Bannister stated that Fedde had neither of those two weapons in his arsenal with Washington. 

These adjustments worked in the KBO. Now we wait to see whether Fedde's newfound pitches will work against the best hitters in the world.

One thing I will say in Fedde's favor: I like the fact that he threw 180-plus innings in 2023. If there's one thing the Sox need, it's more innings from starting pitchers. Fedde should be well positioned to provide that. Let's just hope those innings are quality.

Jim Leyland elected to Baseball Hall of Fame

Jim Leyland

Our congratulations go out to former White Sox third-base coach Jim Leyland, who was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame on Sunday by the Contemporary Baseball Era Non-Players Committee.

The committee examines the Hall cases of managers, umpires and executives whose greatest contributions to the sport came after 1980.

Leyland appeared on 15 of 16 ballots. One needs 12 votes in order to be elected to the Hall. Former manager Lou Piniella (11 votes) and former executive Bill White (10 votes) fell just short of the threshold.

Also considered were former managers Cito Gaston and Davey Johnson, umpires Ed Montague and Joe West, and executive Hank Peters.

Leyland, of course, was the third-base coach for manager Tony La Russa when the Sox won the 1983 American League West Division championship. However, that is not the reason Leyland was elected to the Hall of Fame.

He went on to manage the Pittsburgh Pirates (1986-96), Florida Marlins (1997-98), Colorado Rockies (1999) and Detroit Tigers (2006-13) over a period of 22 seasons. His final career record stands at 1,769 wins and 1,728 losses.

Leyland guided Pittsburgh to three straight National League East Division championships between 1990 and 1992. The Pirates won 95 games or more in each of those seasons, but they could never break through and get to the World Series, losing in the NLCS three years in a row.

In 1997, Leyland moved to Florida and guided the Marlins to the World Series championship in his first season there. Florida made the NL playoffs as a 92-win wild card. They swept the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS, won a six-game NLCS from the Atlanta Braves, then defeated the Cleveland Indians with a memorable comeback in Game 7 of the World Series.

Marlins ownership broke the team apart in a series of cost-cutting moves the following offseason, and Leyland endured the worst year of his managerial career in 1998, going 54-108.

After another losing season with Colorado in 1999, Leyland was out of the game until he resurfaced with Detroit in 2006. He had the most sustained success of his career with the Tigers, guiding them to AL pennants in 2006 and 2012. Detroit won AL Central championships in each of Leyland's final three years as manager, from 2011-13.

In eight years with the Tigers, Leyland went 700-597, good for a .540 winning percentage. He retired after the 2013 season.

Leyland, 78, will be inducted into the Hall of Fame on July 21 in Cooperstown, N.Y.