Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Gerardo Parra signs with Rockies; Carlos Gonzalez trade coming next?

Carlos Gonzalez
The Colorado Rockies on Tuesday agreed to terms with outfielder Gerardo Parra on a three-year, $27 million deal.

It's a curious move, because the Rockies already have a crowded outfield. With Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson and now Parra on the roster, Colorado has a logjam of left-handed hitting outfielders. That's four starting quality outfielders with only three jobs available.

I don't think a team with the Rockies' mid-market budget would give Parra an average of $9 million a year to serve as the fourth outfielder. At that price, it seems reasonable to believe their intention is to play Parra every day. And if that's the case, one of Gonzalez, Blackmon or Dickerson is going to be dealt sooner rather than later.

Cue the speculation about Gonzalez, as reports indicate the Orioles, Angels, White Sox and Cardinals all have interest. 

The market for Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton might slow again now, as teams searching for an outfielder kick the tires on what it would cost to acquire Gonzalez, who has two years and $37 million remaining on his contract. Some clubs, including the Sox, could see those financial terms as more palatable than a four- or five-year commitment to Cespedes or Upton.

That said, I'd be reluctant to cough up too many top prospects for Gonzalez, who can't hit lefties anymore, despite the 40 home run season he posted last year. Check out his 2015 splits:

Gonzalez vs. RHP: .301/.364/.633, 35 HRs, 78 RBIs
Gonzalez vs. LHP: .195/.222/.308, 5 HRs, 19 RBIs

FanGraphs has published a more detailed offering on why Gonzalez should no longer be considered a superstar player. He's oft-injured, and the wear and tear is starting to show up in his performance.

Gonzalez is a big name in the game, of course. He'd be a big-splash acquistion, for sure, but I'd say buyer beware here. And, as one article I read today put it, the Rockies might be asking for two top-100 prospects in any trade involving Gonzalez, but that doesn't mean they are going to get it.

The Sox should resist any urge to buy high on this player.

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