Tuesday, October 24, 2017

A few thoughts on the World Series matchup before it begins

Jose Altuve
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night. Before the series begins, here's a few things to think about as we watch:

1. Who will win on the road first?

The Dodgers are 4-0 at home this postseason. The Astros are 6-0. It has been difficult for any team to win on the road in these playoffs. Home teams are 23-8 so far, which is a winning percentage of .742.

Los Angeles has home-field advantage, and that's no small thing. The Dodgers were a league-best 57-24 at home this season, and they've won 165 games at home over the past three years. That's 11 more than any other team in baseball. If this comes down to a seventh game, do you think Los Angeles will be happy to be playing at home? Oh, I think so.

It would be huge for Houston to split the first two games of the series, and put itself in a position where it can take control of the series at home. The Astros have outscored their opponents 31-7 in their six home postseason games. Houston has not given up more than two runs in any of those six games.

2. Can Houston's offense get hot?

I've been saying most of the season that the Astros have the deepest lineup I've seen in many years, led by AL batting champion and MVP candidate Jose Altuve.

Houston had a league-best .478 slugging percentage as a team this year, and it also scored a league-best 5.53 runs per game.

Even though the New York Yankees have a deep pitching staff, it was shocking to see the Astros held to a .181/.271/.294 team slash line in the seven-game ALCS. Obviously, Houston won in spite of that, and you can't help but feel this lineup is due for a breakout.

It better break out, if the Astros are going to beat the Dodgers.

3. Battle of the bullpens

There's one area where Los Angeles has a clear edge in the series, and that's in the bullpen. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is among the game's best, if not the best, and I'd have a lot more confidence with him on the mound in the ninth inning with a one-run lead than I would Houston closer Ken Giles.

Los Angeles is deeper than Houston. Brandon Morrow started the season in the minor leagues, but he's now the Dodgers' best weapon in the seventh and eighth innings, having held opponents to a .194 batting average this season. Los Angeles also fortified itself with two midseason trades for left-handed relievers. Both Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani can be trusted in high-leverage situations.

As for Houston, in Game 7 of the ALCS, starter Charlie Morton pitched five shutout innings in the 4-0 win over the Yankees. The Astros went to Lance McCullers, who is normally a starter, as the first man out of the bullpen. McCullers finished the game, which is both a testament to how well he pitched in relief, and to the fact that the Astros don't know whom they can trust out of their bullpen.

Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrove struggled in the ALCS, and so did Giles, who had a 9.00 ERA in three appearances against the Yankees. The only left-handed Houston reliever is journeyman Francisco Liriano. He's not to be trusted, either.

Kershaw vs. Keuchel

It's the Game 1 pitching matchup. It also would be the likely Game 5 matchup. Two former Cy Young award winners.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher of his generation. He's finally on the big stage, so let's see what he does with that. This should be his moment.

I think the formula for Dodgers success in this series involves two wins for Kershaw. On the flip side of the coin, if Dallas Keuchel can outpitch Kershaw -- especially in Game 1 -- what a boost that would be for the Astros.

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