Tuesday, May 21, 2019

2018 Lucas Giolito vs. 2019 Lucas Giolito

Proponents of the White Sox rebuild think I'm being too negative about the team's future prospects. Well, guess what? We don't believe team propaganda on this blog, and we're going to continue to criticize the Sox until they give us a legitimate reason to be optimistic with good performance at the Major League level.

That being said, I'm not opposed to praising good performance, so let's give props to Lucas Giolito for being the most improved Sox player through the first 45 games of the season.

Here's a side-by-side comparison of Giolito last year and Giolito this year through eight starts:

2018 Giolito: 2-4, 41.2 IP, 40 H, 33 R, 32 ER, 24 Ks, 32 BBs, 6.91 ERA
2019 Giolito: 5-1, 43 IP, 32 H, 18 R, 16 ER, 50 Ks, 18 BBs, 3.35 ERA

Wow. That's an ERA more than three runs lower. In case you were wondering, Giolito's eight starts have come against Kansas City (twice), Seattle, the New York Yankees, Boston, Cleveland and Toronto (twice).

That's a mixed bag of good-hitting teams and some weaker teams, and it's not unreasonable to believe Giolito will see some regression. But what can't be ignored is that change in the strikeout rate, and the change in the walk rate.

Last season at this time, Giolito had more walks than strikeouts. Now, strikeouts are outnumbering walks by almost 3 to 1. That is a reason for hope.

On Thursday, Giolito will face his sternest test of the season when he takes on the league-best Houston Astros.

Houston beat the Sox, 3-0, on Monday. I don't have much hope for Tuesday, with Dylan Covey pitching for the Sox against Houston's Justin Verlander. And I don't have much hope for Wednesday with Ivan Nova pitching for the Sox against Houston's Gerrit Cole.

However, I do have some hope for Giolito pitching Thursday against Houston rookie Corbin Martin. Now, Martin has a much better team behind him than Giolito, so the Astros might very well win regardless.

That being said, it's a huge step forward when you can legitimately say Giolito's presence on the mound gives you hope that the Sox *might* win. More than we can say for some other pitchers, for sure.

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