Monday, June 7, 2021

Key for Dylan Cease: Get him past the fourth inning unscathed

Dylan Cease
White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease improved to 7-0 lifetime against the Detroit Tigers on Sunday, as he pitched seven innings of shutout ball with 10 strikeouts in a 3-0 victory.

Cease is now 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA over 12 starts this season, and that's certainly acceptable for a No. 4 starter. But here's what I find interesting about Cease: If he actually gets to the third time through the batting order in a start, chances are he's dominating the game.

Check out his ERA by inning:

  • 1st: 3.00
  • 2nd: 2.25
  • 3rd: 2.25
  • 4th: 8.44
  • 5th: 3.24
  • 6th: 0.00
  • 7th: 0.00

So, Cease has allowed 23 earned runs over his 12 starts, and 10 of them have come in the fourth inning. They don't really get him early, and they don't really get him late.

Here is the opponent's slash line, based on times through the order:

  • First time: .211/.311/.300
  • Second time: .239/.333/.386
  • Third time: .245/.275/.245 

Yeah, that second time through the order is definitely the hardest part for Cease. That aligns with the high ERA in the fourth inning. If he gets to the third time through the order, chances are he's cruising. That makes Cease an anomaly, as conventional wisdom states that pitchers lose effectiveness once batters get a third look at them in the same game.

Just something to keep an eye on in future Cease starts.

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