Monday, May 2, 2022

Is it time for the White Sox to cut Dallas Keuchel?

White Sox left-hander Dallas Keuchel has faced 82 batters through his first four starts of the 2022 season. Thirty-five of them have reached base either by a hit or a walk.

That means opposing batters have a .427 on-base percentage against Keuchel. It's stating the obvious, but this is not good.

Keuchel (1-3) took the loss in the latest South Side debacle, a 6-5 defeat against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday afternoon at Guaranteed Rate Field. He allowed four earned runs on six hits over five innings, while striking out only one and walking five (!). His ERA is 8.40.

We know the Sox are reluctant to release high-salaried players in the middle of the season, but such a move is not unprecedented. John Danks, another left-handed starter, was designated for assignment after making four starts in the 2016 season. Danks, like Keuchel, was in the last season of a lucrative contract at the time.

Earlier Sunday, Jordan Lazowski from Sox on 35th tweeted a helpful comparison:

2016 John Danks after four starts: 22.1 IP, 7.25 ERA, 6.10 FIP, 16 SO, 11 BB  

2022 Dallas Keuchel after four starts: 15.0 IP, 8.40 ERA, 6.78 FIP, 8 SO, 11 BB 

Danks was owed $14.25 million in 2016. Keuchel is owed $18 million this season. But as you can see from the numbers, Keuchel is actually pitching worse now that Danks was when he was designated in 2016.

Why would now be a good time to cut losses with Keuchel? Well, the Sox don't need a fifth starter until May 10.

Dylan Cease is pitching in Monday's series finale against the Angels. Michael Kopech and Lucas Giolito are lined up to pitch Tuesday and Wednesday against the Cubs.

Then comes an off day Thursday before a three-game series in Boston. Vince Velasquez could pitch Friday, having gotten an extra day of rest. Then Cease and Kopech could pitch on regular rest to finish that series.

The Sox come home May 9 to open a series with the Cleveland Guardians, and Giolito would be available on regular rest.

By May 10, perhaps veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto will be ready to pitch in the majors. Cueto is ramping up at Triple-A Charlotte, and he pitched four innings of one-hit, shutout ball with six strikeouts and no walks (!) in his last appearance.

If Cueto is not ready, the Sox still have other options for that fifth spot. How about using Reynaldo Lopez as an opener, and backing him up with Tanner Banks

There is a great chance that Keuchel is going to be out of the rotation anyway when Lance Lynn (knee surgery) rejoins the team, likely in late May. But why wait that long?

The Sox are 8-13 and already 4.5 games back of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. It's time to think about moving some underperforming players out of the way, and Keuchel tops that list.

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