Thursday, October 26, 2023

Diamondbacks prove that nobody knows anything with Game 7 win

So, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in the World Series after their 4-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series.

I'll admit it: I didn't think there was anyway in hell that Arizona was going to win two games in a row at Philadelphia to close that series, but that's exactly what happened. 

This once again proves that the only thing I know about baseball is that I know nothing about baseball.

But, good for the Diamondbacks. They are an improbable underdog story. They won only 84 games in the regular season, and they were the sixth and final team to qualify for the NL playoffs.

Arizona had a minus-15 run differential during the regular season, which pencils out to an 80-82 Pythagorean record. The Diamondbacks become the first team to qualify for the World Series with a losing Pythagorean record since the 1987 world champion Minnesota Twins.

This has created quite a debate among baseball people. Is an 84-win league champion proof that too many teams get in the playoffs? Has the postseason become too watered down? Has the value of a good regular season been disregarded?

Honestly, these debates are as old as time. I've heard them in some form for my entire 47 years on the planet. The nature of baseball inevitably leads to upsets in a short playoff series. There's a tremendous amount of variance in small sample sizes.

The Diamondbacks are hardly the first team to advance this far in the playoffs with a rather pedestrian record. Remember the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals? Yeah, they were 83-78, the champions of a weak NL Central. They also won the World Series.

But let's go back a generation or two farther, to an era when only four teams were allowed in the playoffs. 

Remember the 1973 New York Mets? They were 82-79, the champions of a weak NL East. They beat the Cincinnatii Reds -- the Big Red Machine of the 1970s -- in a five-game NLCS. Then they took the Oakland A's to seven games in the World Series before losing. 

Mind you, that was a dynastic Oakland team. The A's won the World Series three years in a row from 1972-1974, but they needed a seventh game to swat away an 82-win team to take the title.

Were the playoffs watered down in 1973 too? You see, there's no perfect system. I see both positives and negatives in the Diamondbacks' story.

The Good: This shows that a smaller-market team has a chance. Why should fans in New York and Los Angeles have all the fun? Even teams that don't get a lot of media attention have an opportunity if they get into the playoffs and peak at the right time.

The Bad: This disincentives teams to strive for greatness. If you have a 92-win team, why bother adding to it to try to become a 100-win team? We've seen this year that regular-season success is just that. It guarantees nothing in the playoffs.

Like I said, no perfect system. But this excitement and intrigue is what we watch baseball for, right? Let's just enjoy the World Series. Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Texas Rangers have been on baseball's biggest stage in a while. Good for them. I'm looking forward to watching.

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