Showing posts with label Nick Anderson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Anderson. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Mookie Betts is the difference between the Dodgers and Rays -- and about that Blake Snell decision

Mookie Betts
Both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays are considered elite, forward-thinking organizations by most people around Major League Baseball.

But here's the key difference between the two: The Dodgers have the resources to acquire -- and pay -- a high-end baseball player such as Mookie Betts.

Los Angeles won its first World Series championship since 1988 on Tuesday, beating the Rays, 3-1, in Game 6. 

Betts, a five-tool player who can beat the opposition in multiple ways, led the Dodgers in the decisive game. He went 2 for 4 with a double and a home run. He scored the go-ahead run in the bottom of the sixth inning and gave Los Angeles some cushion with a solo home run off Tampa Bay reliever Pete Fairbanks in the bottom of the eighth.

The Rays took a 1-0 lead into the sixth inning, and their ace, Blake Snell, was dealing.

Austin Barnes, the Dodgers' No. 9 hitter, singled off Snell with one out. It was only the second hit off the Tampa Bay left-hander, who struck out nine of the 18 batters he faced.

But apparently Rays manager Kevin Cash decided Snell was only going to go through the Los Angeles batting order twice. Snell was removed from the game in favor of right-hander Nick Anderson, even though he had only thrown 73 pitches and seemed to have plenty left in the tank.

Up stepped Betts, who doubled Barnes to third base. Anderson's wild pitch allowed Barnes to score the tying run, with Betts advancing to third. The contact play was on as Corey Seager grounded to first base, and Betts used his speed to score the go-ahead run on the fielder's choice. 2-1 Dodgers.

The Betts home run in the ninth put it away, as Tampa Bay batters had no chance against Los Angeles left-hander Julio Urias, who faced seven men and retired them all -- four by strikeout.

But back to that Snell decision ... I don't think too many baseball people thought it was a good choice. Why would you take out your ace, a former Cy Young winner, when he's dealing in a must-win game?

Well, the Rays believe in their analytics, and the numbers say it's best not to let your starting pitcher go through the opposing batter order for a third time. 

OK, I don't like it, but I get it. But let's say you agree with the idea of taking Snell out. If that's the case, then why was Anderson the choice? 

Anderson has made 10 appearances this postseason. He has been scored upon in eight of them -- EIGHT!!! -- including seven appearances in a row. His playoff ERA is 5.52.

He has been pitching poorly by any measure. In what baseball universe is he the best choice to face Betts and Seager in a 1-0 game with a World Series championship on the line?

No universe that I'm living in. 

Analytics are all fine and dandy, and the Rays have used them to great success. You can't argue with a 40-20 record this season, nor can you argue with an American League pennant.

But sometimes you have to trust your eyes a little bit. Even a blind man can see that Anderson has not been pitching well. You just can't go to him there, although the Dodgers and their fans are very happy that Cash did.

Monday, October 19, 2020

Tampa Bay Rays win American League pennant in unconventional way

Charlie Morton
The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 71.9% of their runs this postseason on the home run. That probably doesn't surprise you, right? This is, after all, the era of home run-or-nothing baseball.

The Rays posted a team batting average of .202 in a five-game AL Division Series against the New York Yankees -- and they won. Then the Rays batted .201 in a seven-game AL Championship Series against the Houston Astros -- and won again. They are going to the World Series for the first time since 2008.

Tampa Bay defeated Houston, 4-2, in Game 7 on Saturday night. Their offense was fueled by, what else, the home run ball. Randy Arozarena hit a two-run homer in the first inning, and Mike Zunino hit a solo shot in the second off Houston starter Lance McCullers. The Rays took an early 3-0 lead, and their pitching made it stick from there.

Arozarena, the rookie outfielder, hit seven home runs all season. He has seven home runs and 11 extra-base hits in the playoffs, including a remarkable .382/.433/.855 slash line. It's difficult to swing the bat much better than that on the big stage.

But here's the thing about the Rays that shows how the game has changed: Not a single one of their starting pitchers worked into the seventh inning during this ALCS. When a team bats .201 as a team and still wins, you would think they were being carried by dominant starting pitching. Not so.

Here's what the Rays got from their starting pitchers in each game:

Game 1. Blake Snell -- 5 IP

Game 2. Charlie Morton -- 5 IP

Game 3. Ryan Yarbrough -- 5 IP

Game 4. Tyler Glasnow -- 6 IP

Game 5. John Curtiss -- 1.1 IP

Game 6. Snell -- 4 IP

Game 7. Morton -- 5.2 IP

This is a far cry from the 2005 White Sox, who threw four complete games in the ALCS and needed only two outs from their bullpen in a five-game series win.

Things are much different than they were 15 years ago, and if you watched Game 7, there was every reason to believe Morton could continue pitching. 

Through those 5.2 innings, the veteran right-hander had allowed only two hits and one walk. He had six strikeouts and had thrown only 66 pitches -- 48 of them for strikes. At one point, he retired 14 consecutive Houston batters.

You could make the case he was "in trouble" in that sixth inning. The Astros had two runners on for the first time in the game -- on a walk and an infield single. There was no sign that Morton was tiring, and 10 or 15 years ago, there's no question he would have been allowed to pitch out of his own jam.

But not in 2020. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash wanted a high-leverage reliever, Nick Anderson, to face Houston's Michael Brantley with two on and two out in a 3-0 game in the sixth inning. Anderson did, in fact, retire Brantley on a routine grounder to second base to end the threat. 

Anderson and Pete Fairbanks worked those last 3.1 innings. They gave up two runs, but they didn't surrender the lead. Ultimately, the Rays won, so you can't really second-guess Cash's decision-making. He stuck with what he's done throughout the season, and there's no arguing with success.

But hey, how about Morton? He was a member of the Astros in 2017 and 2018 before joining the Rays for the past two seasons. And in that time, he's pitched four winner-take-all playoff games and won them all, while posting a 0.46 ERA.  

That guy is good in the playoffs, and generally underrated overall -- just like the Rays often have been as a team.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Tampa Bay Rays beat Oakland A's in AL wild card game

Yandy Diaz
The Oakland A's have lost nine consecutive winner-take-all games, dating back to the 2000 season. In fact, the A's have lost the past 10 times they've played in an elimination playoff game.

Longtime Oakland executive Billy Beane famously said after a 2002 playoff loss to the Minnesota Twins that his "shit doesn't work in the playoffs," but you would think after all this time, his "shit" would work on accident for once.

Alas, the A's added to their tortured postseason history Wednesday with a 5-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL wild card game.

With the victory, the Rays advance to the American League Division Series, where they will face the best team in baseball and the World Series favorite -- the 107-win Houston Astros.

Tampa Bay had the fewest home runs (217) of all the playoff qualifiers this season, but you never would have known that by watching this game. Leadoff hitter Yandy Diaz clubbed the first of his two solo home runs to start the game, and former White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia added a two-run blast in the top of the second inning.

Diaz's second home run off Oakland starter Sean Manaea staked the Rays to a 4-0 lead in the third inning, and they maintained control for the rest of the night.

Manaea was removed after giving up his third home run of the start. The two home runs by Diaz were almost carbon copies. The right-handed hitter got two fastballs up and out over the plate, and both times he drove them over the fence to the opposite field. Garcia's homer was to center field, but it also was a fastball up and over the outer half.

I think we know what pitch and what location the Rays were looking for against Manaea, don't we?

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton worked five innings of one-run ball. I get the sense the Rays signed Morton as a free agent last offseason specifically to pitch this game. They knew they probably weren't going to win the AL East this season, and that their path to the division series would need to include a wild card win.

A veteran pitcher such as Morton, who has World Series experience from his time in Houston, is just the sort of guy you need to prevail in a winner-take-all game on the road. Morton didn't even have his best stuff -- his curveball wasn't working -- but he protected the lead he was handed and put the game in the hands of the deep Tampa Bay bullpen.

Tommy Pham hit a solo home run in the fifth inning to give the Rays a little more breathing room, and relievers Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson and Emilio Pagan combined for eight strikeouts over four scoreless innings.

Tampa Bay has a tall order in the next round against the Astros, but in the playoffs, everyone has a puncher's chance. You never know.