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| Luis Robert |
The White Sox have a top-heavy farm system, and the higher-end guys figure to graduate to the majors sometime in 2020. No. 1 to No. 4 on their prospect list seems obvious to most people. It's those spots from No. 5 to No. 10 that are the subject of debate.
Since everyone else seems to be taking a kick at the can at how these guys should rate, why shouldn't I throw my two cents in? Here are my top 10 Sox prospects going into the 2020 season:
1. Luis Robert, CF. Duh, right? Robert will not be on these lists much longer. He will start the season as the Opening Day center fielder in Chicago. He's the consensus top prospect in the organization, and he ranks anywhere from No. 2 to No. 6 when you see rankings of the top prospects in all of baseball.
I wish Robert would have been called to the majors last season. His tools are insane -- power, speed, defense, throwing arm -- there's nothing to complain about in any of those areas. The main problem for Robert is he remains a bit of a wild swinger, and I expect MLB pitchers to exploit that early in his career. Eventually, he'll make the adjustment, but I wanted that learning curve to start in 2019, during games that were inconsequential in the standings.
Now, Robert will have to learn in the 2020 season, during which the Sox have expectations of being much more competitive. We'll see how he holds up. Certainly, there's nothing left to prove in minor-league levels. Robert hit .328/.376/.624 with 32 home runs and 36 steals across three levels last year. Yep, he's ready for his shot.
2. Michael Kopech, RHP. Kopech is a year and a half removed from elbow surgery. His fastball is back where it should be, sitting between 95 and 100 mph. Will the command be there after such a long layoff from competitive ball? Maybe not, but given Kopech's big fastball and his quality secondary pitches -- including a slider and a change -- I don't have any doubt he's one of the five best starting pitchers the Sox have.
But, the Sox will show "an abundance of caution" with Kopech. He's going to start the year in Triple-A Charlotte, but I don't expect him to be there for long. I'd be stunned if he isn't in Chicago by June 1, assuming good health. Even though the Sox insist that Kopech isn't on an innings limit this season, we know they aren't going to overtax him, so I just assume he throw his innings with the Sox later in the season, as opposed to early in the cold, rainy weather in April.
3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B. The third overall pick in the 2019 draft hit his first spring training home run on Friday, and he appears slated to start the season in Double-A Birmingham. Vaughn put up monstrous numbers over three collegiate seasons at California; his career slash line there was .374/.495/.688.
Unlike some other Sox prospects, Vaughn seems willing to take a walk. He had a .384 OBP in 55 games in the Sox's minor-league system in 2019. He has a simple swing and a disciplined approach that will make pitchers work. Obviously, as someone who is limited to first base as a defender, he'll have to hit to stick in the majors. But there's no reason to believe he won't. Maybe we'll see him at the end of 2020, or in 2021.
4. Nick Madrigal, 2B. He won't hit for power, no, but I'm not sure why I should be concerned about that. In a projected lineup that includes Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, Robert, Edwin Encarnacion, Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal, do the Sox need Madrigal to hit balls off the wall and over it? Not in my world.
I'd make Madrigal the starting second baseman from Opening Day on this season. He can field the position at an elite level, and he almost never strikes out -- you may have heard he only struck out 16 times in 532 plate appearances in 2019. He hit .311/.377/.414 across three levels last season, so I don't think there's a whole heckuva lot for him to prove in the minors. I hope the Sox don't send him back to the minors for service time reasons. We should be past that point in the rebuild.
5. Jonathan Stiever, RHP. I'm always wary of hyping guys over 10 or 12 good starts, but I ended up putting Stiever at No. 5 on this list mostly because his good health (knock on wood) separates him from other Sox prospects. Stiever had a rough start to 2019 at Class-A Kannapolis, where he went 4-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 14 starts.
But something clicked when Stiever got promoted to High-A Winston-Salem, where he went 6-4 with a 2.15 ERA across 12 starts. Stiever's fastball sits in the low 90s, and he's got a good curve. His slider and change are just average, so can he develop a third pitch? And are the gains he made last season sustainable? Stiever figures to start the season in Double-A Birmingham.
6. Dane Dunning, RHP. I had thoughts of putting Dunning at No. 5 on this list, because I'm reasonable certain he'll contribute at the MLB level once he gets healthy. I don't think he has the upside Stiever has, however, and these lists often are about upside. Dunning is recovering from Tommy John surgery and hopes to return to affiliated ball by about June 1.
We could see Dunning in Chicago by the second half of this season. While he's not going to overpower anybody, he has three pitches he can throw for strikes, and well, that's something. A lot of times, guys can stick at the back of the rotation if they can consistently pound the zone with multiple pitches.
7. Luis Alexander Basabe, OF. Basabe's breakout 2018 that saw him hit 15 home runs and earn a spot in the Futures Game has not been forgotten, despite an injury-plagued 2019 season. A broken hamate bone robbed him of his power last season, when he hit only three home runs.
Basabe's slash line last year was .246/.324/.336, and certainly, Birmingham is not a good place for hitters. But, other Sox prospects have produced for the Barons on their way to the majors, and Basabe needs to do the same. The key is lowering his strikeout rate, which was hovering about 30 percent throughout much of last season. Basabe has speed and good defensive tools, so the question is whether the bat comes around.
8. Zack Collins, C. Collins has to get some points because he made it to the majors last season, although his questionable defensive skills behind the plate are likely to send him back to Triple-A to start 2020. Collins received two opportunities in Chicago in 2019, and the first was a disaster. He went 2 for 26 in nine games and got sent back down.
When he came back in September, he had made some adjustments, and it looked better. He slashed .233/.343/.417 with two homers, three doubles, a triple, nine RBIs and nine walks in 71 plate appearances. He also struck out 25 times, which remains a concern, but you figure the Sox will be slow to give up on a left-handed bat and a former first-round draft pick.
9. Blake Rutherford, OF. Hey, let's go wishcasting here. I asked about Rutherford at SoxFest, and director of player development Chris Getz expressed optimism that Rutherford started to turn a corner the second half of last season at Double-A Birmingham. He hit .307/.364/.404 over the last three months of 2019.
That wasn't enough to erase the hideous .185/.226/.291 line he had going into June. We'll keep an eye on Rutherford early in the season to see if he can hold onto his second-half gains. One big problem: He lacks the defensive skill set to play anything other than a corner outfield spot, and he has little power -- only seven home runs last season. He's added 10 to 12 pounds over the offseason, and we'll see if that makes a difference.
10. Matt Thompson, RHP. Just for grins, let's throw a high school pitcher in here, if for no other reason that I'm not high on anybody else. Thompson was the Sox's second-round pick in 2019, and some struggles during his senior season allegedly caused him to take a tumble out of the first round. He's an athletic pitcher with a mid-90s fastball, so we'll see where that goes in the coming years. Realistically, a guy drafted out of high school needs at least four years to make the majors.
