Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Pitching prices come down for the patient

Jason Vargas will make more money
than Royals fans would like.
It's not really easy to like the contract Ubaldo Jimenez got from the Orioles, unless you think he's going to pitch like an ace the way he did way back when for the Rockies. If he does that, this deal will be a steal for Baltimore. Though he probably won't.

That might not really matter though, because even if Jimenez is just an inning-muncher with a little upside, the Orioles paid what is the going rate for that kind of guy, and much less than Jimenez and his agent might have expected when the offseason began.

Jimenez isn't the only one. Ervin Santana, who is still a free agent, was no doubt pleased to see rumors floated that it would take six years and $100 million to land him. If he gets half of that now, I'll be surprised.

Matt Garza, thought to be one of the prizes of the free agent pitching market, also didn't sign until late in the offseason for much less than most people -- including the Cubs -- probably expected him to get. I mean, if you're Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein, wouldn't you rather have Garza for Edwin Jackson money instead of Edwin Jackson?

Or another point of contrast: Is Jimenez more or less dicey than Homer Bailey, who just got more than $100 million without even hitting the market?

While the top of the pitching market maybe didn't reach the heights we might have expected with the money rolling into baseball, the bottom of the market didn't seem to suffer. At least not among the teams that felt like they had to strike deals before Christmas.

Does the four-year, $49 million deal the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco before Christmas look so great now that Jimenez and Garza barely got more?

How will the Royals feel if Santana takes the same four-year, $32 million deal they gave Jason Vargas long before everyone in the Midwest got sick of snow this winter? Even worse, what if Santana decides that's a bunk deal so decides to look for a well-paying, one-year prove-it deal -- or what an agent would call a pillow contract -- in an attempt to hit the market again with two recent and successful seasons on his resume.

If the Royals hadn't rushed to sign Vargas, or the Twins to ink Nolasco and Phil Hughes (3 years, $21 million), both might have the room in their budgets and rotations to take advantage, either grabbing a better pitcher for the same or less money, or a comparable pitcher on better terms.

Instead both teams are hamstrung. Bad contracts don't usually do that until after someone's thrown a pitch.

The lesson here seems pretty obvious. Good things, or at least better prices, come to those who wait.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Does Ubaldo Jimenez make Baltimore a contender? I'll vote no

The Baltimore Orioles have been seeking a starting pitcher the entire offseason. They finally got one Monday night when Ubaldo Jimenez agreed to a deal that is reportedly worth $50 million over four years.

Jimenez joins a rotation that includes Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez and Bud Norris.

Is the addition of Jimenez enough for the Orioles to become a major factor in the American League East? If I were a betting man, I'd say no. I'd still put Baltimore behind Boston, New York and Tampa Bay in baseball's toughest division.

I've never been a big believer in Jimenez. Yes, he went 13-9 with a 3.30 ERA in 32 starts with Cleveland last year. Yes, he pitched like an ace down the stretch and was one of the keys to the Indians getting into the playoffs as a wild-card team.

However, this is a pitcher who has never been consistent. Even last year in a "good season," Jimenez was all over the map. He was 7-5 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP his first 20 starts. League average at best. He salvaged that with a red-hot finish over his final 12 outings, going 6-4 with a 1.72 ERA.

Jimenez' best season was 2010 with the Colorado Rockies, when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA. But again, a closer look reveals his inconsistency. Over his first 14 starts of that year, Jimenez enjoyed the best stretch of his career. He went 13-1 with a 1.15 ERA.

But look at his last 19 starts in 2010: 6-7 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. For a National League starter, that's worse than league average. 

In 2011 and 2012, Jimenez went a combined 19-30 with a 5.03 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Basically, he was brutal for two full seasons.

What it comes down to is this: Jimenez pitched like an ace for 14 games with the Rockies at the start of 2010. Then, he stunk for three full calendar years. From the last half of 2010 through the first half of 2013, he was a below-average starter. Finally, he pitched like an ace for 12 games with the Indians at the end of last season.

Which Jimenez do you think will show up in Baltimore? I think his three years of badness outweigh his 26 good starts, which were three years apart. Twenty-six good starts in four years. That's not even a full season. That's not the stuff top-of-the-rotation pitchers are made of.

If I were an Orioles fan, I wouldn't get too excited about this signing. I don't see Jimenez having much success facing the stacked lineups in Boston and New York.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

White Sox infielders, get ready to catch some grounders

We've talked previously on this blog about how White Sox GM Rick Hahn has been targeting groundball specialists to restock his pitching staff.

Here's a good article from Yahoo Sports that discusses his strategy.

The article notes that newly acquired relief pitcher Ronald Belisario has a 60.8 percent groundball rate for his career. That means six out of every 10 balls put in play against Belisario are hit on the ground.

Just in case you were wondering, the league average in 2013 was 44.5 percent. It would be an understatement to say Belisario is an extreme groundball pitcher. Here's how the other pitchers Hahn has acquired this offseason stack up in this category:

Scott Downs: 58.0 percent
Mitchell Boggs: 52.6 percent
Felipe Paulino: 45.6 percent

So, all four of Hahn's major pitching acquisitions this offseason produce groundballs at a higher rate than league average. For the record, traded closer Addison Reed's groundball rate was the worst on the team in 2013 and well below league average at 33 percent.

Yeah, we can see a trend here. Hahn wants pitchers who keep the ball on the ground at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. That means the White Sox infielders had better improve their defense this season.

One of the most disappointing aspects of the 2013 campaign was the poor defense the White Sox played. They had the lowest fielding percentage in the league (.980) and had the second-most errors (121). They allowed 80 unearned runs to score, and that no doubt played a role in their pathetic 24-36 record in one-run games.

By way of comparison, the 2012 Sox committed the fewest errors in the league (70) and had the highest fielding percentage (.988). They allowed only 30 unearned runs to score the entire season. Not coincidentally, the Sox won 22 more games in 2012 than they did in 2013.

What was baffling about the 2013 defensive slump was that presumably good fielders were major contributors to the malaise. Shortstop Alexei Ramirez saw his error total jump from 12 to 22. Second baseman Gordon Beckham committed 12 errors in 103 games after committing just 7 miscues in 149 games the previous season.

There's been a lot of talk about whether Beckham and Ramirez will produce enough offense from the middle infield positions. Personally, I'm more concerned about whether they'll bounce back defensively. For Hahn's plan with the pitching staff to work, they better.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Sports Illustrated gives White Sox, Royals high marks for offseason moves

It isn't too often the White Sox earn praise from the national media, so I found it interesting Sports Illustrated gave GM Rick Hahn an A- for his offseason moves.

The Kansas City Royals were the only other American League club to earn an A- from the publication.

This offseason, the Sox signed free agent first baseman Jose Abreu, acquired center fielder Adam Eaton from the Arizona Diamondbacks in a three-team trade that sent pitcher Hector Santiago to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and picked up third baseman Matt Davidson from the Diamondbacks in exchange for closer Addison Reed.

The Sox also added free agent pitcher Felipe Paulino and fortified their bullpen by signing veterans Ronald Belisario, Scott Downs and Mitchell Boggs.

"Chicago still has questions about how much offense it will get at catcher and in the middle infield, but there’s no doubting that general manager Rick Hahn has had a very good winter," wrote Joe Lemire of SI.

The Royals drew praise for fixing their two major positional weaknesses -- right field and second base. Right fielder Norichika Aoki was acquired in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, and veteran Omar Infante was signed to address the issue at second base.

Kansas City signed left-handed pitcher Jason Vargas to take the spot in the rotation vacated by free agent Ervin Santana and also retained starting pitcher Bruce Chen. The Royals also picked up former Twins third baseman Danny Valencia, who could form a platoon with Mike Moustakas, who has had his troubles hitting left-handed pitching in the past.

"Coming off their first winning season since 2003, the Royals effectively targeted their needs," Lemire said.  

On the National League side, the Cubs received a C after a mostly quiet offseason in terms of roster moves. The North Siders added starting pitcher Jason Hammel, relievers Wesley Wright and Jose Veras and backup catcher George Kottaras. They also acquired outfielder Justin Ruggiano from the Miami Marlins in exchange for outfielder Brian Bogusevic.

The main offseason news for the Cubs was the hiring of manager Rick Renteria, whom they hope will do a better job of mentoring young players than the fired Dale Sveum.

SI's Cliff Corcoran wrote Renteria's hiring is "a move [the Cubs] hope will prove to be their most significant of the offseason."

Who won the offseason in the National League? SI says it was the St. Louis Cardinals, the defending league champions.

The Cardinals earned an A+ after remaking their infield. St. Louis signed free agent shortstop Jhonny Peralta and traded third baseman David Freese in order to move Matt Carpenter from second base over to the hot corner. They also added veteran Mark Ellis, who gives them insurance in the event Kolten Wong fails to earn the second base job. They also upgraded their outfield defense with the addition of Peter Bourjos, who was acquired from the Angels in the Freese deal.

"Thanks to their strong farm system, the Cardinals were able to have a practically perfect offseason," Corcoran wrote.  

Monday, February 10, 2014

My 5 favorite White Sox teams (during my lifetime)

When I got up this morning, it was 2 degrees with a wind chill of minus 17. There is somewhere between two and three feet of snow covering the ground here in Crystal Lake. Pitchers and catchers haven't reported yet (for most teams), Opening Day is still seven weeks away, and the news cycle is slow right now for baseball.

So, I figure what better time than to fill space with a pointless list?!

With that in mind, I present to you (in reverse order) my five favorite White Sox teams of all time. Keep in mind, this list only includes teams from my lifetime (I was born in 1976). Also, these are not necessarily the best or most successful Sox teams I've watched; they are just my favorite ones:

5. 1983: I attended my first Sox game as a 5-year-old in 1981, but the first year I really have good recollections of was the 1983 season. The Sox won 99 times and took the American League West by a record 20 games. I can still recite the everyday lineup: Rudy Law, Carlton Fisk, Harold Baines, Greg Luzinski, Ron Kittle, Greg Walker (or Tom Paciorek), Vance Law, Scott Fletcher and Julio Cruz. They had a 24-game winner in LaMarr Hoyt and a 22-game winner in Richard Dotson. Unfortunately, they lost the ALCS, 3-1, to the eventual World Champion Baltimore Orioles. Game 4 was lost 3-0 on an extra-inning home run by Tito Landrum. The Sox had Hoyt lined up to pitch a decisive Game 5, so there was a good chance they would have gone to the World Series if they had just won that Game 4. Broke my 7-year-old heart.

4. 2000: This was a fun season for two reasons. First, the Sox hit the living snot out of the ball that summer. Even if they were down five or six runs, they weren't out of the game. Magglio Ordonez had 32 home runs and 126 RBIs, and he was just the second-best hitter on the team. Frank Thomas had one of his best seasons: 43 homers and 143 RBIs. He should have been MVP, but the award went to cheating Jason Giambi instead. The Sox had three others with 21 or more home runs: Carlos Lee, Jose Valentin and Paul Konerko. The other reason this season was so much fun was because 95 wins and an AL Central title were totally unexpected. The Sox were coming off three straight losing seasons and weren't expected to do much, but they made the playoffs. Unfortunately, injuries to the pitching staff and a sudden offensive slump caused them to get waxed by the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS.

3. 1994: Another season of what could have been. A strike canceled the last month and a half of the season, plus all of the playoffs and World Series. It was heartbreaking because the Sox were so good and had a great chance to win it all. They were in first place with a 67-46 record when the season abruptly halted. Thomas was having his best year. He was hitting .353 with 38 homers and 101 RBIs through 113 games. Makes you wonder how it would have turned out for Thomas had he been allowed to play those last 49 games. What a terrific middle of the order the Sox had in '94, with Thomas, a resurgent Julio Franco and Robin Ventura in his prime. They had the pitching, too, with a rotation of Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez and Jason Bere, who was having his best season that summer. Still kills me that we'll never know how the '94 season would have played out.

2. 1990: The last year at old Comiskey Park. Once again, this was a memorable year because the White Sox had surprising success. In 1989, the Sox lost 92 games and finished dead last in the American League West. In 1990, they sent the old ballyard out in style with a 94-win campaign. They had the second-best record in the league. Unfortunately, they were in the same division as the 103-win Oakland A's, and this was before the days of the wild card. The Sox missed the playoffs despite having a terrific year. The lineup was almost void of stars. Fisk and Kittle were probably the two most recognizable players. Ventura and McDowell were young and not yet household names. Thomas and Fernandez were called up in August and still unproven. Bobby Thigpen did have a career year as closer, posting a then-record 57 saves. But this season was remarkable because the Sox were greater than the sum of their parts. The theme for that summer was "Doing the Lil' Things." The Sox pitched well. They played defense. They ran the bases smartly. They got timely hits. And, oh, they went 8-5 against those mighty Oakland A's. Unfortunately, nobody else in the American League could stop Oakland, which eventually won the pennant.

1: 2005: Duh. What other team would be No. 1 on this list other than the 2005 World Champions, who eased the pain of generations of failure? The Sox were wire-to-wire champions of the AL Central. They won 99 games. They ran through the playoffs and World Series with a record of 11-1, an accomplishment that is still underrated and understated, even here in the Chicago area. Guys who were castoffs from other teams (Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye, A.J. Pierzynski, Dustin Hermanson) came to Chicago with chips on their shoulders and played great. The team produced countless iconic moments: Podsednik's walk-off homer in the World Series. Konerko's grand slam that same night. Four consecutive complete games in the ALCS by pitchers Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia and Jose Contreras. Then, there was Joe Crede's magnificence with both the bat and the glove in the playoffs. For one season, this was a great baseball team. Not a good team, a great team. How the hell can you top 99 regular-season wins, plus 11-1 in the playoffs? Well, you'd have to win 100 in the regular season and go 11-0 in the playoffs. Good luck with that.

49 days until Opening Day. A new season is coming soon, I promise.


Friday, February 7, 2014

White Sox add relief pitcher Mitchell Boggs

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports the White Sox have signed relief pitcher Mitchell Boggs to a one-year, $1.1 million deal.

This will be a reclamation project for pitching coach Don Cooper. Boggs was once a solid reliever for the St. Louis Cardinals. From 2010-2012, he appeared in 190 games, threw 201 innings and compiled a respectable 3.08 ERA over that span.

Boggs' best year with St. Louis was 2012, when he went 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA. That season, he allowed just 56 hits over 73.1 innings.

But something went terribly wrong for Boggs last year. His ERA ballooned up to 11.05 in 18 appearances with the Cardinals, who were forced to demote him to Triple-A. Boggs was traded midseason to the Colorado Rockies, where he had a 3.12 ERA over nine appearances and 8.2 innings.

Walks were a problem. Boggs issued 20 free passes in 23.1 innings at the major league level last year. He's going to have to get that cleaned up this spring to be effective for the White Sox.

I find no fault with this signing. It's a one-year commitment for not much money. If Boggs regains his 2012 form, he will be an asset to the Sox bullpen. If he fails, he can be released without too big of a financial hit.

Maybe Cooper has watched Boggs on film and believes the pitcher can make the necessary adjustments to be effective again.

Coop will fix 'em? 

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Giordano's is now the official pizza of the Chicago Cubs

I've only had Giordano's Pizza maybe once or twice in my life. I obviously wasn't that impressed, because if I had liked it that much I would dine there more often.

Now that Giordano's has signed a sponsorship deal with the Cubs, I'll probably never eat there again.

Under the deal, Giordano's will be the only pizza served at Wrigley Field. It also will be the only pizza served at the Cubs' new spring training facility in Mesa, Ariz. The pizza chain will also get signage in and around the ballpark, which will surely delight the Wrigley Field traditionalists.

Have I mentioned that I really like Lou Malnati's Pizza? It's great. It's much better than Giordano's. As a matter of fact, I've decided to name Lou Malnati's the (un)official pizzeria of "The Baseball Kid." And Lou's doesn't have to pay me a dime in exchange for this endorsement.

So take that, Giordano's! Have fun at Wrigley. You aren't getting any more of my money.