Thursday, February 2, 2017

Remaining free agents: Anyone want a slugger?

Chris Carter
Has anyone else noticed what a bad offseason this has been for free-agent sluggers?

The calendar says February, but there still are plenty of guys out there with home run power that are looking for a contract. Just look up and down this free-agent tracker.

Need a right-handed power bat? Chris Carter, Mike Napoli and Mark Reynolds can be yours, and probably for cheap. In need of some lefty pop? How about Pedro Alvarez, Justin Morneau or Adam Lind? They're available.

Mark Trumbo led the American League in home runs last year with 47 -- 47 home runs! -- but it didn't lead to him breaking the bank in free agency this offseason. He took a three-year deal worth $38.5 million to remain with the Baltimore Orioles.

By way of comparison, the third-best closer on the market this offseason, Mark Melancon, got $62 million over four years from the San Francisco Giants.

It's interesting that guys who pitch one inning are now substantially more valuable in the marketplace than guys who are a threat to hit the ball in the seats every time they step into the batter's box.

Carter had 41 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers last season. He can't find a job.

I'm wondering if the front office guys are looking at the WAR for these sluggers and feeling as if they just aren't worth an investment. Here is the 2016 WAR for each of the six guys I listed above:

Reynolds: 1.5
Napoli: 1.0
Carter: 0.9
Alvarez: 0.7
Morneau: 0.3
Lind: -0.3

This shows us that these guys provide little or no defensive utility. They are one-dimensional sluggers, and the game is starting to move away from that. There are no big bucks out there for "one-win" players.

I've had some people ask me why Todd Frazier remains on the roster for the rebuilding White Sox. Well, it's probably because front offices don't value sluggers that much anymore. Granted, Frazier had a 3.4 WAR last season, so he's better than the guys listed above, and he has some defensive utility at third base. However, there is no rush to acquire .220 hitters who give you 40 home runs, but also strike out a lot.

If that type of player were desired in the marketplace, Carter would have signed a free-agent contract by the first of the year.

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

How might the White Sox pitching staff look when the season starts?

Jose Quintana -- still here
White Sox pitchers and catchers will have their first full workouts Feb. 14 in Glendale, Arizona. It's closer than we think, so let's take a look at how the pitching staff might shake out given the current roster construction.

We'll assume there are no trades between now and Opening Day -- a big assumption, because general manager Rick Hahn made it clear at SoxFest that he's still open to making moves before the season starts.

For a rebuilding club, the Sox look surprisingly set on the pitching side of things. The five projected starting pitchers right now are pretty obvious:

1. Jose Quintana
2. Carlos Rodon
3. Miguel Gonzalez
4. James Shields
5. Derek Holland

In anyone gets injured or traded, Rule 5 draft pick Dylan Covey might get the first shot at taking a spot. The other roster contenders would be two of the three players acquired in the Adam Eaton trade -- Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez. However, Hahn indicated a preference to have all the recently acquired prospects start the season in the minor leagues, so we probably will not see Giolito or Lopez in Chicago until later in the 2017 season.

I look for prospects Carson Fulmer and Tyler Danish to potentially get some starts during spring training, but both players are ticketed for the Triple-A rotation in Charlotte when the season starts.

Let's assume the Sox will carry 12 pitchers -- most teams do -- so that means there are seven spots in the bullpen. There isn't a lot of mystery with five out of the seven:
David Robertson -- also still here

1. David Robertson
2. Nate Jones
3. Dan Jennings
4. Jake Petricka
5. Zach Putnam
6. ????
7. ????

Contenders for the last two spots include a quartet of right-handers we saw in Chicago in 2016: Tommy Kahnle, Michael Ynoa, Juan Minaya and Chris Beck.

I'm guessing one of the four makes the club, with Kahnle having the inside track. Unlike the rest of that crew, he had a strong finish to 2016 -- a 0.87 ERA over his final 11 appearances with 11 strikeouts in 10.1 IP.

Why would only one of the four make the team? Well, I'm thinking the Sox want a second left-hander in the bullpen. Jennings is the only left-handed roster lock as a relief pitcher. The door is open for waiver claim Giovanni Soto, who last pitched in the majors with Cleveland in 2015. The 25-year-old's left-handedness is an advantage for him as he battles Ynoa, Minaya and Beck for a roster spot.

But what of the non-roster invitees, you ask? Are there any pitchers that could surprise and make the roster out of spring training?

I'd say keep an eye on the non-rostered lefties, a list that includes Matt Purke, Aaron Bummer, Brian Clark, Jace Fry, David Holmberg and Cory Luebke.

Purke is a familiar name to Sox fans, although his 12 big league outings last season were pretty bad. I'll be interested to see what Bummer has after amateur scouting director Nick Hostetler spoke highly of him at SoxFest. Bummer is hard thrower who missed the 2015 season with Tommy John surgery, and he has fewer than 40 professional innings under his belt. It seems unlikely he'll compete for a roster spot given his inexperience, but he might be the most intriguing name in this group.

Clark is more advanced, having thrown 56 innings across 37 games between Birmingham and Charlotte last year. Fry missed the 2016 season with Tommy John surgery, and has thrown only 61 professional innings. Holmberg has worked mostly as a starter in his career. He made 28 starts between Birmingham and Charlotte last year, and has 167 career starts in the minors. Luebke is a 31-year-old former San Diego Padres prospect who underwent two Tommy John surgeries and missed three seasons from 2013-15.

From that list of six, we'll see if any emerge as a worthy challenger. Personally, I wouldn't count on it. Of course, when do you ever count on non-roster invitees?

Non-rostered right-handed pitchers in camp include Blake Smith, who made five September appearances with the Sox last year; 31-year-old veteran Anthony Swarzak, who had 26 relief appearances with the New York Yankees last year; and 20-year-old prospect Spencer Adams, who split time between Winston-Salem and Birmingham in 2016.

And, oh yeah, Michael Kopech and Zack Burdi are going to be in camp as non-roster players. Heard anything about them lately? How's that for burying the lead?

In all seriousness, Kopech is probably ticketed for High-A Winston-Salem when the season starts, while Burdi will be headed to the Charlotte bullpen, in hopes of one day becoming the White Sox closer.

Neither of these two hyped prospects are going to make the club, but they will generate headlines each and every time they take the mound this spring.

Monday, January 30, 2017

Rick Renteria impresses with answers to fan questions at SoxFest

Rick Renteria (center)
I went to SoxFest this past weekend without much enthusiasm toward the rebuilding project that is just beginning on the South Side of Chicago.

Guess what? I'm still not excited, but after listening to new White Sox manager Rick Renteria talk this weekend, I feel a little better knowing he will be the man leading the team through a 2017 season that is almost certainly going to be trying and ugly at times.

Renteria has been talking all week about doing things the "White Sox Way," so I stood up in the seminar room Friday night and asked him to elaborate on what the "White Sox Way" is, and to provide me with some examples of the things he wants to do differently than what we've seen in the past.

First, Renteria praised me for asking a good question, then he gave a detailed, specific and thoughtful response. He talked about the need for players to play with maximum effort  -- back up bases, run hard out of the batter's box, etc. He talked about how it was his responsibility to hold players accountable for actions they take or don't take on the field. He talked about the importance of improving in several small but key areas, a better two-strike approach at the plate, better base running, understanding situations in the field, hitting the ball the other way when the situation calls for it -- all things that seemed to be lacking during the Robin Ventura Era.

The paragraph above is just a Cliff Notes version. Renteria spoke for about five minutes after I asked my question, and he gave similarly detailed responses to other questions posed by fans. It was a welcome change from previous SoxFests.

Some other highlights from the seminar room:

1. General manager Rick Hahn said repeatedly that all the prospects acquired in the Chris Sale and Adam Eaton trades are expected to start the season in the minor leagues. He added that the Sox still are actively looking to make more moves before the season begins, with the goal of stockpiling as much young talent as possible. Hahn noted that a deal fell apart for him on Christmas Eve, so yeah, all that Jose Quintana-to-the-Yankees stuff around the holidays probably had some validity to it. It just didn't happen.

2. A fan astutely asked Hahn whether he would try to include the declining and overpriced James Shields in a deal with one of his assets. How would that work? Say Hahn wants to trade Quintana. He could go to a team and say, "You guys want Quintana? Well, you gotta take Shields and his high salary as well." Under such a scenario, the Sox would get less return in prospects for Quintana, but they would be off the hook for Shields' bad contract. Hahn said he would not do that under any circumstance, because his goal is to acquire top young talent, and throwing a liability such as Shields into a trade would defeat that purpose. I was happy to hear Hahn say that. We won't have a repeat of the Mark Teahen situation with Shields.

3. Both Friday night and Saturday morning, fans asked Hahn and Renteria about the role sabermetrics play in decision-making. Renteria said there was no shortage of information for he and his coaches to digest, but I was most impressed when he noted that numbers represent outcomes, and while they can be instructive, it's important to stay ahead of the curve by looking at more than just the past. Renteria noted that he has to trust his eyes and his gut, as well, beyond just absorbing the numbers, and there needs to be an understanding of what individual players can and cannot do in certain situations. Good answer.

In summary, Renteria's words, of course, are merely that. He has to produce results on the field, as well, but he gave the die-hard fans at SoxFest reason to believe he might be the right man for the job.

That's no small statement coming from me, because I was skeptical when Renteria was hired, and critical of Sox management for not conducting a more thorough search.

And, hell, I'm still skeptical, but I'm at least a little more open to the direction they are going based upon what I heard from the new manager over the weekend.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Former White Sox outfielder Tim Raines, two others inducted into Hall of Fame

Tim Raines with the Sox in 1995
Congratulations go out to former White Sox outfielder and coach Tim Raines, who was one of three people elected to baseball's Hall of Fame on Wednesday.

Raines, a six-time All-Star who ranks among the best leadoff hitters in the history of baseball, received support on 86.0 percent of the 442 ballots cast in his 10th and final year of Hall eligibility. He easily cleared the 75 percent threshold required for induction.

The switch-hitter finished with 808 career stolen bases, including a 90-steal season in 1983 as a member of the Montreal Expos. He also won a batting title with Montreal in 1986, hitting .334

Raines will no doubt go into the Hall wearing an Expos cap, but he was a productive player for the Sox from 1991-95. In those five seasons, he posted a .283/.375/.407 slash line with a combined 50 home runs, 98 doubles, 28 triples, 143 stolen bases and 277 RBIs.

His best individual season with the Sox came in 1993. He hit .306/.401/.480 with 16 home runs, 54 RBIs and 21 steals and was the left fielder and leadoff hitter for the AL West Division champions.

Raines will be joined in the Class of 2017 by former Houston Astros first baseman Jeff Bagwell and catcher Ivan Rodriguez, who played 21 years with six different teams, most notably with the Texas Rangers.

Bagwell received 86.2 percent of the vote, while Rodriguez received 76 percent of ballots in his first year eligible for induction.

There were two narrow misses. Relief pitcher Trevor Hoffman (74 percent) and outfielder Vladimir Guerrero (71.7 percent) are trending toward probable induction in 2018.

As Sox fans, we should probably get used to seeing former Sox players going into the Hall wearing a different cap than the Silver and Black. Last year, Ken Griffey Jr. went into the Hall as a Seattle Mariner. This year, Raines goes in as an Expo. Next year, Jim Thome's name appears on the ballot for the first time, and his 612 career home runs (134 with the Sox) will be hard for voters to ignore. However, he'll be going to the Hall as a Cleveland Indian.

Friday, January 13, 2017

White Sox avoid arbitration with Todd Frazier, Dan Jennings, Jake Petricka

Todd Frazier
The White Sox on Friday avoided arbitration with three players, agreeing to one-year contracts with third baseman Todd Frazier and relief pitchers Dan Jennings and Jake Petricka.

Frazier's deal is worth $12 million. He is coming off a season where he led the team in home runs (40) and stolen bases (15) despite a disappointing .225/.302/.464 slash line. He also ranked second on the Sox with 98 RBIs.

Coming into the offseason, Frazier, 30, was a good bet to be traded before Opening Day -- and maybe he still will be. However, there have been few rumors involving Frazier, and there still are several right-handed power-hitting free agents who remain unsigned (Mike Napoli, Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista). Until those guys come off the market, there might not be much interest in Frazier -- especially since he is coming off a down season in terms of batting average.

He could eventually be traded for prospects as part of the rebuilding plan. Or maybe he won't be. Essentially, he's the Sox's third baseman until he's not. (How's that for insight?)

Jennings, 29, is coming off one of his better seasons -- a career-high 64 appearances with a 4-3 record and 2.08 ERA. His contract will pay him $1.4 million.

Petricka, 28, appeared in only nine games in 2016 before undergoing season-ending hip surgery. His deal is worth $825,000.

Although the Sox are rebuilding, they might enter the 2017 season with a bullpen that looks very similar to the one from last year. Closer David Robertson, set-up man Nate Jones, Jennings, Petricka and Zach Putnam all remain on the roster.

The only two guys gone from last season are Matt Albers, who was too ineffective to be retained, and Zach Duke, who was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals in July.

Right now, the projected bullpen includes the five guys listed above, plus Tommy Kahnle. After that, the Sox still need a second left-hander to go along with Jennings. As it stands, the next-best left-handed option in the organization is 25-year-old Giovanni Soto, a waiver pickup who last pitched in the big leagues with the Cleveland Indians in 2015.

Given that Robertson, Petricka and Putnam are all coming off surgery, we might not see too many changes in the bullpen this offseason -- just because the Sox need to hold onto as much veteran depth as possible to get through 2017. One thing a rebuilding team does not want is for prospects to be forced into big-league duty prematurely because of injuries to veteran stopgaps.

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Catching up on recent minor White Sox moves

Geovany Soto
It's been a quiet offseason since the White Sox announced their intention to rebuild with early-December trades of Chris Sale and Adam Eaton. I've been busy at work and with the holidays, so I haven't had much time to remark on the generally unremarkable roster moves that have been made over the past month.

But for the sake of catching up, here's some of the stuff the Sox have done recently:

1. Signed veteran catcher Geovany Soto to a minor-league deal

There's no question the Sox needed to add a catcher. The oft-injured Alex Avila has gone back to Detroit after the Sox (rightfully) showed no interest in retaining him. That left 24-year-old Omar Narvaez as the most experienced catcher in the organization, and that's not saying much -- Narvaez has only 117 plate appearances in the major leagues.

So, the Sox went back to a guy they already know in Soto. He was here in 2015, caught 78 games and posted a .219/.301/.406 slash line. He signed with the Los Angeles Angels for the 2016 season, but knee injuries limited him to 26 games and 86 plate appearances. He did hit .269 with five doubles and four homers in those plate appearances, so there's that.

Soto will turn 34 years old next week, and it's a stretch to think he'll be healthy the whole season. But, that's why he's on a minor-league deal. There isn't much risk for the Sox with this signing.

2. Signed 3B/OF Cody Asche to a minor-league deal

Here's another move that doesn't stir the soul, but we make note of it because Asche has managed to appear in 371 major-league games and make 1,287 major-league plate appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies over the past four years.

Asche hit .240/.298/.385 with a combined 31 home runs over those four seasons, which means he isn't providing enough power for a defensively challenged corner infielder/corner outfielder. Understandably, Philadelphia non-tendered him, and now here he is with the Sox as a minor-league free agent signing.

Hooray for organizational filler.

3. Claimed outfielder Willy Garcia off waivers from Pittsburgh and designated Jason Coats for assignment

Basically, the Sox added someone else's busted prospect while letting go of one of their own. Garcia, 24, is younger than Coats, who will turn 27 by the time the season starts.

Garcia is a corner outfielder who has spent the past season and a half at Triple-A Indianapolis. In 129 games and 499 plate appearances last year, he hit .245/.293/.366 with six home runs and 43 RBIs. He did have 30 doubles, which suggests he at least has warning track power, but warning track power at the Triple-A level probably isn't all that exciting.

Coats is out of the organization. He was recently claimed off waivers by the Tampa Bay Rays. I was getting annoyed by Sox fans who believed Coats should be given a starting job at the big-league level for the 2017 season.

Yes, I know it's a rebuilding year, but that doesn't mean starting jobs should be handed to career minor-leaguers who have no future with the Sox.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Baseball America's revised list of top 10 White Sox prospects

The White Sox's recent trades of Chris Sale and Adam Eaton netted them seven new players -- all of whom are minor-league prospects. So, it stands to reason the organization's list of top 10 prospects looks far different now than it did at this time last month.

Here's the latest look from Baseball America:

1. Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B
2. Lucas Giolito, RHP
3. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP
4. Zack Collins, C
5. Michael Kopech, RHP
6. Zack Burdi, RHP
7. Luis Alexander Basabe, OF
8. Carson Fulmer, RHP
9. Spencer Adams, RHP
10. Dane Dunning, RHP

Moncada, Kopech and Basabe all were acquired from the Boston Red Sox in the Sale trade. Giolito, Lopez and Dunning all were acquired from the Washington Nationals in the Eaton trade. Collins and Burdi were 2016 Sox draft picks.

That means eight of these 10 players have joined the Sox organization within the past six months. I'm sure this will do a lot for the Sox in terms of where their farm system ranks, although each of the next two seasons likely will feature 90-plus losses on the South Side of Chicago.

It will be interesting to come back to this list in 2019 and see how many of these players panned out.