What are reasonable expectations for Dallas Keuchel this season?

Dallas Keuchel

As White Sox pitchers and catchers report to camp Wednesday, the pitcher who I'm most curious about on the Sox staff is ... strangely, Dallas Keuchel.

I'm not sure what the Sox are going to get from 32-year-old veteran left-hander, who signed a three-year deal worth $55.5 million with the South Siders this offseason.

First, let's take a look at what Keuchel has provided the past five seasons, the first four with the Houston Astros, then last season with the Atlanta Braves:

2015: 20-8, 2.48 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.017 WHIP, 216 Ks, 51 BBs, 232 IP
2016: 9-12, 4.55 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.286 WHIP, 144 Ks, 48 BBs, 168 IP
2017: 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.119 WHIP, 125 Ks, 47 BBs, 145.2 IP
2018: 12-11, 3.74 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.314 WHIP, 153 Ks, 58 BBs, 204.2 IP
2019: 8-8, 3.75, 4.72 FIP, 1.367 WHIP, 91 Ks, 39 BBs, 112.2 IP

Keuchel was at the height of his powers in 2015, when he won the American League Cy Young Award. He had a down year in 2016, before bouncing back in 2017. The past couple of seasons have been characterized by a decline that is to be expected with his age, but it's not a precipitous decline.

So what do we expect from Keuchel as Sox fans in 2020? I know we're not getting an ace -- he's just not that guy anymore. But, that stat line from 2018, I think I could live with that. If Keuchel provides 200-plus innings and an ERA below 4.00 in a hitters' park such as Guaranteed Rate Field, that's a solid year at this stage of his career.

What does Keuchel need to do to get to that level? Well, I think he's going to have to do a better job the third time through the batting order than he did last season with the Braves. Check out the splits opposing batters had against Keuchel by pitch count, and note how rough it gets once he gets past 75 pitches:

Pitches 1-25: .278/.345/.398
Pitches 26-50: .206/.292/.299
Pitches 51-75: .265/.320/.434
Pitches 76-100: .320/.294/.608

Yikes on that fourth line there, huh? I certainly can't complain about anything I'm seeing for Pitches 1-50. Heck, 51-75 isn't too bad, but that slugging percentage takes a big leap once Keuchel gets past the 75-pitch mark.

We know Sox pitching coach Don Cooper is old-school, believing that going seven innings is "part of the job description" for starting pitchers.

There's no doubt Keuchel will be allowed to pitch deep into games, and there's every reason to believe his floor is higher than the ceilings for past Sox rotation members such as Ivan Nova, Dylan Covey and Ross Detwiler. That alone makes Keuchel a worthwhile signing.

But the key question here is whether he can be more than a five- or six-inning pitcher at this stage of his career. The Sox definitely need him to be.

Some other photos from SoxFest 2020

Here's a rundown on some of the people I got to meet at SoxFest:

White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease was a big fan of my shirt, which referred to the Sox as "The Good," the Detroit Tigers as "The Bad," and the Kansas City Royals as "The Ugly."

Hanging out with somebody closer to my own age on Saturday morning -- the man who was the starting and winning pitcher in Game 1 of the 2005 World Series, Jose Contreras.

As mentioned in an earlier blog, Danny Farquhar is back with the Sox organization as a pitching coach. He'll be at Class-A Winston-Salem this season.

Hall of Famer Tim Raines was in the house Saturday. Some of Raines' best seasons came in the 1980s as a member of the Montreal Expos. He was on some talented teams there with Andre Dawson and Gary Carter. But he was still a pretty damn good offensive player when he came to the Sox in the early 1990s.

This is the first time I've ever met Tom Paciorek. I'm just old enough to remember Paciorek's career as a player -- he was a member of the 1983 American League West Division champion White Sox. That's the first season I remember -- I was 7 years old at the time. But I'll always recall "Wimpy" best for his years in the Sox broadcast booth with Ken Harrelson. He was the perfect complement to Hawk for many seasons in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

And here's me with former Sox outfielder and current radio broadcaster Darrin Jackson. For some reason, DJ wanted to know if I was a former catcher. No, actually, I played quite a bit of center field. Jackson was intrigued, saying, "So you've got some wheels, huh?" Well, not at age 43. Maybe in my younger years.

Finally, new Sox relief pitcher Steve Cishek, who is one tall dude. We've noted in the past that Cishek may have been overused the past couple of years with the Cubs, so I asked him whether he has another 70 or 80 appearances left in him for this year. His response: "I'm ready. Let's go."








I'm ready, too. March 26 can't get here fast enough.

Chatting with Danny Farquhar about Houston's sign stealing

Danny Farquhar (and me)

Danny Farquhar's career as a pitcher is sadly over. As all White Sox fans and most baseball fans are aware, Farquhar suffered a near-fatal brain aneurysm April 20, 2018, in the dugout during a game against the Houston Astros at Guaranteed Rate Field.

That would be the last time Farquhar would pitch in a major-league game. He pitched in two games at Triple-A in the New York Yankees organization in 2019, before retiring as a player.

Now, Farquhar is back in the Sox organization. He will be the pitching coach for Class-A Winston-Salem during the 2020 season, and it was good to see him make an appearance at SoxFest.

I got in Farquhar's photo line Friday night, and I had a chance to talk to him about a different game against the Astros -- this one a 3-1 Sox victory on Sept. 21, 2017.

Farquhar worked a 1-2-3 eighth inning in this game, but most notably, it was one of the games where the Astros were clearly stealing signs. In this video, Farquhar calls Sox catcher Kevan Smith to the mound to change the signs in the middle of an at-bat against Houston's Evan Gattis.

Turns out, Farquhar heard the Astros banging trash cans every time Smith signaled for a changeup. (Farquhar was mostly a two-pitch pitcher, fastball and changeup.)

“There was a banging from the dugout, almost like a bat hitting the bat rack every time a changeup signal got put down,” Farquhar said in this story in The Athletic. “After the third one, I stepped off. I was throwing some really good changeups and they were getting fouled off. After the third bang, I stepped off.”

So, when I met Farquhar, I asked him if anyone from the media had asked him about the incident immediately after that game. He said no, and he added that it was talked about in the clubhouse that night, so to him, it was somewhat surprising that it took so long for Houston's shenanigans to come to the forefront.

Nobody in the press interviewed Farquhar after his outing. As I stood there talking to him, I noted that relief pitchers don't get many interview requests on days when they do their job effectively, as was the case here. Farquhar agreed and said that had he given up a 3-run homer and lost the game for the Sox, he probably would have had to answer reporters' questions after the game.

The SoxFest police grew tired of me visiting with Farquhar, so they asked me to move along. As we parted, Farquhar said as a player you need to be careful before you accuse another team of doing something wrong -- nobody wants to be known as someone who falsely accuses others, and there's a fine line you have to walk.

The sign-stealing situation came up multiple times at SoxFest, and new Sox reliever Steve Cishek said the Cubs reworked their signs after they lost a game to the Astros in Houston last season.

Cishek wouldn't name names, but said a ridiculous opposite-field home run was hit on a first-pitch slider. The home run ended up boosting the Astros to a 9-6 victory over the Cubs.

I will name names: Alex Bregman hit that home run off Brad Brach.

We haven't addressed the sign-stealing scandal much on this blog, because everyone else is talking about it, and what else is there to say?

I was always taught, if you think someone has your signs, change them. That's what Farquhar did in his scenario in September 2017, and it was fun to chat informally with him about the incident. And, it's good to see him healthy and back with the Sox organization.

We wish Farquhar well in his new endeavor as a pitching coach. He's a smart guy, and I think he'll have a lot to offer for the young pitchers in the Sox organization.

McCormick Place as a venue for SoxFest ... It has potential

Pitcher Michael Kopech and his wife, Vanessa Morgan

This was the first year SoxFest was held at McCormick Place, and speaking just about the venue and the setup, I'd give it mixed reviews.

First, the good part: I really like the fact that there are three hotels attached to McCormick Place, and that fans had a choice of accommodations. Access to McCormick Place was easy. You simply walk across a footbridge, and you don't even have to go outside into the January cold.

There also are good dining options within reasonable walking distance for after the fest, which is nice because, well, you don't eat that well at SoxFest itself.

However, here's the problem, SoxFest was more cramped and crowded than it ever was when it was at the Chicago Hilton on Michigan Avenue, the previous venue.

The Sox really pumped up the idea that they were holding SoxFest at the "largest venue in North America" or whatever, but then they only rented a very small portion of the space available. I felt as though I could have walked for miles through the empty space at McCormick Place this past weekend, and I thought to myself, "Couldn't the Sox have used this area?"

That's especially true because it was standing room only at the main stage for almost every seminar the whole weekend. There were maybe 200 seats there, and the Sox actually needed about 500.

The "White Sox Museum" was a nice idea, and it was used as a secondary stage for seminars. Only problem? There were maybe 100 chairs in there. They needed at least double that, especially for Chuck Garfien's podcast featuring pitcher Michael Kopech and his wife, actress Vanessa Morgan.

And don't even get me started about the food court. I ate my lunch sitting on the floor Saturday, and so did everyone else I know who attended the event. The McCormick Place food court was not open; the Sox no doubt wanted all the profits, so they set up their own food vendors. And they were approximately 500 tables short of what they needed to accommodate the crowd.

Autograph stages were too close together, and walkways were jammed as lines to see headliners such as Kopech, Frank Thomas and Eloy Jimenez snaked around the convention hall.

The Sox obviously sold more tickets to this event than they did in years past, and that's fine considering the bigger venue.

Problem is, they didn't use the venue properly. That main stage needed to be somewhere else. It was practically right next to the museum, and those attending seminars in the museum were routinely disrupted by what was going on at the main stage. It just didn't make sense.

I guess there is one good thing for the Sox in this scenario: Their posts on social media showed the overflow crowd and long lines in the conventional hall. They can stake their claim that there was a lot of interest in SoxFest this year, and that's not completely wrong. The area designated for SoxFest was packed with fans.

However, if they really want to have a great event, they need to rent more space. McCormick Place, as it turns out, is an inspired choice as a location, but for crying out loud, they need to make better use of the venue.

Yolmer Sanchez is headed to San Francisco

Yolmer Sanchez

On Friday night, a fan at SoxFest asked general manager Rick Hahn if "GOLD GLOVE WINNER Yolmer Sanchez would ever wear a White Sox uniform again."

Yes, he really did shout "Gold Glove winner" for emphasis. Hahn, of course, talked like a lawyer, didn't rule it out, and said that the organization has a high opinion of Sanchez.

Well, that fan is going to be disappointed, because Sanchez reportedly has a minor-league deal with the San Francisco Giants.

Sanchez apparently turned down a couple of major-league offers, because he doesn't want to resign himself to backup status. He believes he can win a starting job in San Francisco. Can't blame a guy for wanting that.

Certainly, Sanchez is a fine defensive second baseman. I always appreciated his quick hands turning the double play. But, I also agreed with the Sox's decision to non-tender him because of his weak bat and increasing price tag. It was believed Sanchez could earn as much as $6 million this season in arbitration.

Sanchez batted .252/.318/.321 with two home runs and 43 RBIs during the 2019 season. He struck out 117 times and posted an OPS+ of 73. Yuck. Not worth the money.

We all know Nick Madrigal is going to get an opportunity to play second base for the Sox at some point this season. That made Sanchez expendable. If the Sox want a stopgap until Madrigal arrives, they should sign someone who can hit and provide a bench bat later in the season.

Maybe it would be worthwhile to kick the tires on Brian Dozier.

Rick Hahn continues to talk like a lawyer at SoxFest

Rick Hahn

Maybe I'm a bad White Sox fan. I won't allow general manager Rick Hahn to have his "victory lap."

I don't care if he "won the offseason." Until the team has a winning season *on the field* under his leadership, I'm not going to give him credit for much of anything.

So, I wasn't of the mindset to give him his round of applause at SoxFest this weekend. I didn't boo him when he was introduced, but I didn't cheer him either.

And I didn't lob him a softball question during the town hall with him and manager Rick Renteria on Friday night at McCormick Place.

When I stood before the crowd, I noted the Sox have a top-heavy farm system. The top four prospects -- Luis Robert, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal -- all are quite good. So good that we expect to see three of the four in Chicago this season. Then, there's a steep drop-off.

Quick, can you name the No. 5 prospect in the Sox organization?

My question for Hahn on this topic was twofold. First, is he concerned that he won't have the prospect capital to get the "finishing piece" at the trading deadline, should the moon and stars align and the Sox find themselves in contention going into the second half of the season?

Second, is it a point of organizational emphasis to improve in the draft? After all, most of these top young players we're talking about have been acquired one of two ways -- through the trades of topnotch major league talent, or tanking to get a high draft pick.

If this rebuild is truly going to work, don't the Sox have to hit on more of their second- and third-round picks?

Hahn basically told me he's not concerned about either of these things. He feels the lack of minor league depth is mostly attributable to injuries. It is true that several prospects have had injuries, including Dane Dunning, Zack Burdi, Jimmy Lambert and Luis Basabe.

The general manager expressed optimism that as guys get healthy, the system will prove to be much deeper than it seems. I'd like to believe that, but with the track record the Sox have, I'm not going to believe it until I see it. Citing injuries is always an irrefutable argument. It's not as if we can deny that they occurred.

On the second point, Hahn noted that a recent report found that the Sox rank second in all of baseball for the decade of 2010-19 in terms of WAR by drafted players. This is true, but let's understand that most of that WAR is tied up in just a handful of guys.

Chris Sale's career WAR is 45. Marcus Semien's career WAR is 20, and while he's a former Sox draft pick, he didn't blossom until he was traded to Oakland. Tim Anderson's career WAR is 10. Nobody else the Sox have drafted in the past decade has a career WAR above 6. For the record, the oft-injured Carlos Rodon is the next-best guy on this list.

Does that sound like a good draft record to you?

Once again, top-heavy, a few big hits, but a lot of misses. Hahn insisted his draft guys are doing their job. But for me, it's just unfortunate that Anderson is the only former Sox No. 1 draft pick who is actually helping at the big league level at present time. We need to see more of these homegrown guys come up and deliver. Let's hope Madrigal does that this season.

I'm sorry, but I can't help but be cynical about a GM whose record is 491–642 over seven seasons.

Hall of Fame thoughts: Derek Jeter and Larry Walker

Derek Jeter

Does it really matter who the one person is who didn't vote for Derek Jeter in this year's Hall of Fame balloting?

I am not among the righteously indignant who needs to know the answer to the question. I also don't care why that person didn't vote for Jeter. All that really matters is the former New York Yankees shortstop got 99.7 percent of the vote, easily clearing the 75 percent threshold for election, and there's certainly no shame in that.

Maybe I'm not bothered by this because I was never a huge Jeter fan. Don't get me wrong: The guy is the best offensive shortstop I've seen in my lifetime, bar none. Through the years, I simply got tired of ESPN analysts insisting that Jeter was a great defensive player, when he was merely adequate at his position.

Again, nothing wrong with being adequate. But it's not unfair or wrong to say Jeter didn't stand out for his defense.

What set him above the crowd was his bat. In the past century, Jeter's 96.3 offensive WAR is the best among shortstops by a wide margin -- Robin Yount's 83.1 is second.

Jeter had eight 200-hit seasons. No other shortstop in my lifetime has had more than four. Jeter had nine seasons of 120 OPS-plus or better. He batted .300 or better 12 times. No other shortstop in my lifetime has batted .300 more than six times. (There are three that have done it six times: Nomar Garciaparra, Alan Trammell and Alex Rodriguez.)

Jeter's career OPS-plus is 115. That's even better than Cal Ripken Jr. (112), who is the second-best offensive shortstop I've seen in my lifetime.

So, yeah, Jeter was an easy Hall pick because he was just tremendous, historically great, with a bat in his hands. Just don't try to tell me how allegedly awesome he was with the glove. I won't buy it.

Joining Jeter in the Hall is Larry Walker, the former Montreal Expos, Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals outfielder. This was Walker's 10th and final time on the ballot, and here's the thing that's so curious about his election: Only four years ago, he received just 15.5 percent of the vote.

This week, he cleared the 75 percent threshold by six votes. That's a slim margin, but it counts. It's just kind of strange how people didn't think Walker was a Hall of Fame four years ago, but now they do. He's still the same man; his career accomplishments have not changed.

Walker is a three-time batting champion who finished his career with a .313/.400/.565 slash line. He was the National League MVP with the Rockies in 1997, when he hit .366 with a league-best 49 homers and 130 RBIs. He also won the Gold Glove in right field that year, one of seven times in his career he earned that honor.

The main knock on Walker? He played a lot of his career at the offensive paradise known as Coors Field in Denver. No doubt that career .965 OPS benefited from the thin mountain air, but the thing is, Walker's .865 career OPS on the road is still higher than several notable Hall of Famers, including Ken Griffey Jr. (.860), Dave Winfield (.841), Eddie Murray (.838), Rickey Henderson (.836) and Tony Gwynn (.835), among others.

Would I have voted for Walker? Ehh, probably. I think playing in Montreal and Colorado for most of his career hurt his profile. If he had played in an East Coast media market, chances are he wouldn't have been waiting 10 years to get into the Hall.