What are reasonable expectations for Dallas Keuchel this season?

Dallas Keuchel

As White Sox pitchers and catchers report to camp Wednesday, the pitcher who I'm most curious about on the Sox staff is ... strangely, Dallas Keuchel.

I'm not sure what the Sox are going to get from 32-year-old veteran left-hander, who signed a three-year deal worth $55.5 million with the South Siders this offseason.

First, let's take a look at what Keuchel has provided the past five seasons, the first four with the Houston Astros, then last season with the Atlanta Braves:

2015: 20-8, 2.48 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.017 WHIP, 216 Ks, 51 BBs, 232 IP
2016: 9-12, 4.55 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.286 WHIP, 144 Ks, 48 BBs, 168 IP
2017: 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.119 WHIP, 125 Ks, 47 BBs, 145.2 IP
2018: 12-11, 3.74 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.314 WHIP, 153 Ks, 58 BBs, 204.2 IP
2019: 8-8, 3.75, 4.72 FIP, 1.367 WHIP, 91 Ks, 39 BBs, 112.2 IP

Keuchel was at the height of his powers in 2015, when he won the American League Cy Young Award. He had a down year in 2016, before bouncing back in 2017. The past couple of seasons have been characterized by a decline that is to be expected with his age, but it's not a precipitous decline.

So what do we expect from Keuchel as Sox fans in 2020? I know we're not getting an ace -- he's just not that guy anymore. But, that stat line from 2018, I think I could live with that. If Keuchel provides 200-plus innings and an ERA below 4.00 in a hitters' park such as Guaranteed Rate Field, that's a solid year at this stage of his career.

What does Keuchel need to do to get to that level? Well, I think he's going to have to do a better job the third time through the batting order than he did last season with the Braves. Check out the splits opposing batters had against Keuchel by pitch count, and note how rough it gets once he gets past 75 pitches:

Pitches 1-25: .278/.345/.398
Pitches 26-50: .206/.292/.299
Pitches 51-75: .265/.320/.434
Pitches 76-100: .320/.294/.608

Yikes on that fourth line there, huh? I certainly can't complain about anything I'm seeing for Pitches 1-50. Heck, 51-75 isn't too bad, but that slugging percentage takes a big leap once Keuchel gets past the 75-pitch mark.

We know Sox pitching coach Don Cooper is old-school, believing that going seven innings is "part of the job description" for starting pitchers.

There's no doubt Keuchel will be allowed to pitch deep into games, and there's every reason to believe his floor is higher than the ceilings for past Sox rotation members such as Ivan Nova, Dylan Covey and Ross Detwiler. That alone makes Keuchel a worthwhile signing.

But the key question here is whether he can be more than a five- or six-inning pitcher at this stage of his career. The Sox definitely need him to be.