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And hey, it's almost time for spring training games to start. The White Sox play Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon, and the game is televised on NBC Sports Chicago. Maybe something interesting will happen.
It will nice to have some actual baseball to talk about, if only so we can take a break from the discussion of how Tony La Russa will mesh with the Sox players.
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| Dylan Cease |
That is a bold statement when we're talking about an organization that hasn't won a division championship since 2008, and hasn't won a playoff series since the 2005 World Series.
Let's just say I don't expect the Sox to achieve that goal. They most certainly should have a winning season. They should be a playoff contender, but I don't know if they belong on the short list of teams that deserve to be talked about as World Series contenders.
One of the reservations I have is the lack of depth in the starting rotation. We know who the top three are, don't we? Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel and Lance Lynn ... You could do a helluva lot worse than that. The only question there is, who starts Game 2 of the regular season?
Giolito is the ace and should start April 1 against the Los Angeles Angels. After that, it's Keuchel and Lynn in any order. But what about those No. 4 and No. 5 spots? I see five contenders, and let's list them in order from most likely to win a job, to least likely:
1. Dylan Cease. Of all the candidates, Cease is the only one who has both plus stuff and a track record of health over the past year. The 25-year-old right-hander made all 12 of his starts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and he went 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA. Not bad, but his shabby control -- a league-high 34 walks in 58.1 innings pitched -- led to him being relegated to the bullpen in the playoff series against the Oakland Athletics. New pitching coach Ethan Katz apparently is executing a plan to stop the glove-side run on Cease's fastball. We all know Cease has high-90s velocity, a good breaking ball and a usable changeup, so he's the No. 4 guy if he can find the plate a little more often.
2. Carlos Rodon. I've already vented on this blog about the decision to bring Rodon back. Every season, he seems to be worse and more injured than he was the season before. Nevertheless, the Sox can't quit him, and he was signed with the promise that he would be given an opportunity to compete for a starting role. Given how badly Rodon fared in relief last season, it's hard not to agree that he's better off as a starter. Accordingly, if he's healthy, it's hard not to see him having the inside track for the fifth spot in the rotation. If that's not his role, then what is? He's on a major-league deal, and he can't be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. One positive is he would provide a second left-hander for the rotation behind Keuchel, and he's obviously a different type of pitcher. Rodon has the high velocity and a power slider, while Keuchel is a sinkerballer with plus control.
3. Reynaldo Lopez. The once-promising 27-year-old has had two lousy years in a row. His ERA swelled to 5.38 in 33 starts in 2019, and 2020 brought injury problems and a 1-3 record with a 6.49 ERA in eight starts. Lopez pitched so poorly that he was left off the playoff roster. He's yet another project for Katz, and the focus seems to be on shortening Lopez's arm swing -- a fix that worked for Giolito between 2018 and his breakout season of 2019. But does Lopez have the mental focus to be a consistent starting pitcher? That remains to be seen. Of note, he has an option remaining and can be sent to Triple-A Charlotte if he doesn't win a job in camp.
4. Michael Kopech. Once we get to April, it will have been 31 months since we last saw the 24-year-old Kopech on a big-league mound. He blew out his elbow late in the 2018 season, missed all of 2019 after Tommy John surgery, and opted out of the 2020 season because of the COVID-19 pandemic and assorted personal issues. Kopech is back this year for sure, and he's saying he's in a better mental place than he's been at any point in his career. And make no mistake about it, he isn't going to Charlotte. He's going to be on the club when camp breaks. I just think he's going to start the season in the bullpen. Because he has not pitched in two years, he will be on an innings limit, and the Sox are already talking about how they will need to be "creative" with his usage. For me, that means something other than starting every fifth day. I don't see Kopech opening the season in the rotation unless there are a bunch of injuries that force the Sox's hand.
5. Jimmy Lambert. The forgotten 26-year-old right-hander also had Tommy John surgery in 2019. He returned in 2020 and made two scoreless relief appearances with the Sox before a forearm strain sidelined him for the rest of the season. Lambert doesn't have the stuff that some other guys on this list have, but he has three pitches that he can get over the plate, and he's not afraid out there. The most likely scenario? Lambert pitches at the top of the rotation in Triple-A Charlotte, and he's a candidate to be called up if injury woes strike the major league rotation.
So, who do you have going into those last two spots, assuming good health? I'm obviously going with Cease and Rodon.
I think both Lopez and Kopech will be on the team April 1, but both will be in the bullpen to start the season. Don't forget, Jace Fry is out until May after having back surgery, and Jimmy Cordero has a leftover suspension to serve after beaning Willson Contreras with a pitch in a late-season game against the Cubs in 2020.
That opens up a couple of bullpen jobs in the short run. Ultimately, though, Cordero will come back from his suspension, Lopez will head to Charlotte to stay stretched out to start, and we'll see him in the likely event that Rodon needs time on the injured list. That's my prediction.
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| Jonathan Lucroy |
The White Sox added a potential option as a backup catcher on Thursday when they agreed to terms with Jonathan Lucroy on a minor-league deal.
Lucroy, 34, was one of the best hitting catchers in baseball from 2011 to 2016. His career peaked in 2014, when he finished fourth in National League MVP voting as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers. He slashed .301/.373/.465 with a league-best 53 doubles and 13 home runs that season.
Obviously, Father Time has been knocking louder the past few seasons. Lucroy only appeared in one game in 2020 with the Boston Red Sox. In 2019, he split time between the Los Angeles Angels and the Cubs, batting .232/.305/.355 with eight home runs and 36 RBIs in 101 games.
I don't know how much Lucroy has left, but the Sox very clearly need a veteran backup to Yasmani Grandal. We all knew James McCann was going to leave for greener pastures this offseason -- and a full-time starting job -- and he's with the New York Mets now.
That left the Sox with Zack Collins, Yermin Mercedes and Seby Zavala as catchers on the 40-man roster. All are deeply flawed, and none of them can be trusted for a couple of weeks if, say, Grandal's back acts up -- as it did at one point during the 2020 season.
The hope has to be that Grandal is healthy to catch 125 games, and Lucroy can slot in there for 35 to 40 games, bat .230 and give the Sox credible receiving skills. The Sox don't need much offense from their backup catcher -- they have plenty of other people who are supposed to hit -- but they do need someone with a decent defensive reputation who can handle pitchers.
Lucroy has been that guy in the past. Fingers crossed he can do it for one more season. Wouldn't have been my first choice, but again, somebody is better than nobody.
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| Carlos Rodon |
Wrong. On Saturday, the Sox brought him back on a one-year, $3 million contract.
I'm not sure what the purpose of this move is, but the Sox will probably tell us it is to bolster the depth of the starting rotation. And it's not wrong that the Sox could use more depth in that area.
You can feel pretty confident in the top three pitchers in the rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel and Lance Lynn. But then you've got the inconsistent and unproven Dylan Cease, the enigmatic Reynaldo Lopez (who was injured in 2020) and Michael Kopech -- who hasn't thrown a competitive pitch since 2018 -- competing for the other two spots.
So, yeah, it makes perfect sense to bolster the depth. But why would any person have confidence that Rodon is the answer? Here are the innings pitched totals for the oft-injured left-hander over the course of his career:
And here are Rodon's ERAs over that same period:
Rodon is getting worse and less reliable all the time. He's had surgeries on both his shoulder and his elbow during his time with the Sox, and while the quick ramp-up during the pandemic-riddled 2020 season certainly did him no favors, it's hard to give Rodon the benefit of the doubt when he's gotten injured every other year, too.
Some people have noted that Rodon's velocity returned in 2020, and that could be a reason for optimism going forward. It's not wrong to say that Rodon was consistently hitting 96 mph with his fastball the last time that we saw him. However, in his last three outings -- a meltdown against Cleveland, a game against the Cubs the last weekend of the regular season, and the aforementioned crapfest in Oakland -- Rodon threw 60 pitches and only got two swings-and-misses.
The velocity is there, but is the stuff?
And you know, the Sox had other options for rotation depth. If they wanted to stick with somebody they know, Jose Quintana was a free agent this offseason. Sure, Quintana had injures in 2020, as well, but as recently as 2019, he made 31 starts and threw 171 innings -- two benchmarks that Rodon has never reached in his career.
Alas, Quintana signed a one-year deal worth $8 million with the Los Angeles Angels.
Left-hander James Paxton remains a free agent and could have been an option for the Sox. Paxton also had injury problems in 2020 that limited him to five starts. But, again, as recently as 2019, Paxton made 29 starts, won 15 games and posted a 3.82 ERA. Rodon has never made 29 starts or won 15 games in a season, and he hasn't had an ERA below 4.00 since 2015. Just sayin'.
Lastly, I don't know why the Sox didn't consider right-hander Garrett Richards, who was hurt for most of 2019, but made 10 credible starts for the San Diego Padres in 2020 -- he went 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in 51.1 innings.
Richards signed a one-year deal worth $10 million with the Boston Red Sox.
Granted, these pitchers all cost more than the $3 million that Rodon is going to make in 2021, but the Sox tend to get what they pay for when they make these sorts of moves.
If Rodon posts 10 reasonably good starts sometime in 2021, I'd take that right now. I'll be pleasantly surprised if he does. Nothing against the guy -- I think he truly wants to get healthy and turn around the negative narrative of his career -- but in a win-now 2021 season, I can't trust him in any role with the Sox.
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| Mark Buehrle |
That doesn't mean that nobody will go into the Hall this year -- the Class of 2020, which includes Derek Jeter, Larry Walker and Ted Simmons, will get its induction ceremony this summer after COVID-19 ruined everything last July.
In this 2021 ballot, pitcher Curt Schilling came the closest. He got 71.1% of the vote, followed by outfielder Barry Bonds (61.8%) and pitcher Roger Clemens (61.1%). Schilling, Bonds and Clemens were all in their ninth year on the ballot, which means they'll get one more kick at the can in 2022. If a player isn't inducted after 10 years, he falls off the ballot.
The biggest takeaway for White Sox fans? Well, good news for Mark Buehrle. He received 44 of a possible 401 votes to lead all first-time candidates. That's 11% of the vote, so it's nowhere near enough to secure induction into the Hall, but Buehrle was comfortably above the 5% threshold needed to remain on the ballot for a second year.
I'm not prepared to say Buehrle belongs in the Hall, but I'm pleased to see him receive a decent level of support. Getting 44 votes means some people outside of Chicago noticed his name on the ballot and voted for him.
At the very least, my hope for Buehrle is that the voters give his career a fair audit in the years to come. How do we judge a starting pitcher's worthiness for the Hall anyway? Most starting pitchers in the Hall have 300 wins; 3,000 strikeouts or both. Almost nobody does that anymore, so new standards need to be applied to starting pitchers.
For Buerhle, let's start with this: Between 2000 and 2015, nobody pitched more innings, and nobody won more games. Buehrle and CC Sabathia both had 214 wins during that period. And as we've noted in the past, Buehrle had iconic moments in his career: two no-hitters, including a perfect game; five All-Star appearances, including an All-Star Game start; and a World Series championship with the Sox in 2005.
It may or may not have been a Hall of Fame career, but it was a career that should not be dismissed easily. I'm happy Buehrle's name will be on the Hall ballot again in 2022.
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| Lucas Giolito |
Any of the things below probably could have been a blog entry, but for the sake of time, I'll just bullet point some of the recent White Sox news and notes:
OK, I think we're up to date.
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| Liam Hendriks |
Here in 2020-21, we've got Lance Lynn starring as Jeff Samardzija, and Adam Eaton as Melky Cabrera. And ... introducing Liam Hendriks as David Robertson!
OK, I think Lynn is a better pitcher than Samardzija. And for all his limitations, Eaton is at least a more economical roster addition than Cabrera was. And Hendriks, the latest White Sox signee, is similar to Robertson in the sense that he was the best free-agent relief pitcher on the market.
Hendriks, a 31-year-old right-hander, was signed Monday to a three-year, $54 million contract. He will earn $13 million in each of the next three seasons. The deal includes a $15 million club option for 2024, with a $15 million buyout -- hence the $54 million in guaranteed money.
I don't want to make the same argument twice, so I'll refer everyone back to my previous comments on Hendriks. Hey, the guy has been an elite relief pitcher the past two seasons. It's reasonable to believe he makes the Sox better. He brings swing-and-miss stuff to the closer's role --13.1 strikeouts per nine innings in both 2019 and 2020 -- and that's an element the Sox bullpen has been lacking.
On paper, Hendriks is a better closer than Alex Colome, and I would never argue otherwise. Thing is, at $54 million, it's likely that Hendriks will be the biggest free-agent addition this offseason, and my concern overall has been whether closer is the appropriate position to spend money on. I felt as though starting pitching and right field were bigger needs.
The Sox filled those two spots with cheaper acquisitions in Lynn and Eaton.
Am I the only one who finds it fascinating that the Sox are willing to shop at the top of the market for relief pitching, while being unwilling to do so at any other position?
They ponied up for Robertson back in 2014-15, and now they made Hendriks their top target. However, they seem uninterested in George Springer, the best outfielder on the market, and uninterested in Trevor Bauer, the best starting pitcher on the market. It's frustrating and baffling to see the Sox not pursue those guys.
But, let me say this for the Sox: Who else in the American League is doing ANYTHING this offseason? Nobody, really.
Aside from the San Diego Padres and New York Mets, two National League clubs, the Sox are the only team that appears to actively be trying to get better.
Even though I wish they were doing more, they are at least doing something, so there's that.
