Tuesday, December 20, 2022

Minnesota Twins without a shortstop so far this offseason

Catching up on some of the free agent signings from recent days:

Swanson was the last high-priced free agent to come off the board. As you can see from the list above, some of the late-career veterans are starting to sign short-term contracts. Brantley decided to stay where he's been in Houston. Turner went from Los Angeles to Boston, while Martinez when from Boston to Los Angeles. The two essentially swapped places.

My main takeaway on Swanson: The Twins are left without a shortstop to this point in the offseason. They sought to retain Carlos Correa, but they were outbid by the San Francisco Giants. Swanson seemed to be their fallback, but he chose to come to the North Side of Chicago.

Now, Minnesota is in a fix. The best free agent shortstop left on the market is ... probably Elvis Andrus, who had a resurgence with the White Sox at the end of 2022, but it's far from certain that the 34-year-old veteran can sustain that level of play moving forward.

The Twins ended up with Gallo to plug an outfield spot, while the Sox signed Andrew Benintendi on a five-year deal. That's a little surprising. At the start of the offseason, no one would have been shocked if Gallo had landed on the South Side on a short-term deal. The Twins seemed more likely to make a multiyear splash on somebody, either an outfielder or a shortstop.

I must say, I did not want Gallo on the Sox. He's a boom-or-bust player, and while I fully acknowledge that he could hit 40 homers for the Twins and make me eat my words, the Sox already have a little too much boom-or-bust in their everyday lineup.

The Sox were better off signing an outfielder who sets a higher floor at his position, and Benintendi is that guy. Gallo simply is not. 

Who are the top remaining free agents? Well, I wouldn't say there's anyone left you would call "top of market." Besides Andrus, Jean Segura and Brandon Drury are still out there as infielders. Michael Conforto is available for anyone still interested in an outfielder. Jurickson Profar would be an option for a team seeking an all-purpose type. Nathan Eovaldi is probably the best starting pitcher still out there. Need a closer? I'm not sure Craig Kimbrel will ever regain his "future Hall of Fame" form, but he's available.

Monday, December 19, 2022

Andrew Benintendi agrees to 5-year deal with White Sox

Andrew Benintendi
These days, a 12-pack of Pepsi costs $7.99 at regular price. That seems like a lot, but it's actually the going rate in today's inflationary economy.

Similarly, it costs about $15 million a year to add an average starting outfielder in free agency. That seems high, but when you look around baseball, it's actually about par.

And that's the way I look at the deal the White Sox gave left fielder Andrew Benintendi. According to sources, the 28-year-old agreed to terms Friday on a five-year, $75 million contract. It is the most lucrative deal the Sox have ever handed out in free agency.

That last sentence sounds weird to say, doesn't it? When you're handing out the biggest contract in team history, shouldn't that money be going to someone who is a perennial All-Star? You would think so, but that's not the way the Sox operate. 

What the Sox have done here is pay market rate for adequacy at a position, and there's really nothing wrong with that. It just invites ridicule when the biggest deal a team has ever handed out goes to a decent-but-not-great outfielder.

Benintendi does most things reasonably well, although he lacks a carrying skill. He swings left-handed, which is something the Sox need. He plays respectable defense in left field -- he won a Gold Glove in 2021 as a member of the Kansas Ciry Royals -- which is also something the Sox need.

His career slash line is .279/.351/.782 over seven seasons, with OPS+ of 109 -- meaning he's been 9% above league average as an offensive player for the totality of his career. Benintendi's contact rate is good; he takes his fair share of walks (a bonus for the free-swinging Sox); and he's a decent baserunner.

One big concern: While Benintendi hit a career-best .304 last season, he managed only five home runs. He's hit as many as 20 in a season (2017 with the Boston Red Sox), so cross your fingers and hope that a little bit of that power returns playing in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. The Sox struggled last season, in part, because of the lack of home runs in their lineup. Benintendi does not solve this problem.

In fact, this signing does not change the fact that the Sox are counting on healthy, more effective seasons from Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal. They are counting on Eloy Jimenez to finally play 100-plus games in a season, too.

The Benintendi signing helps in that regard, because he's going to play left field. Jimenez can put away his glove for the most part, and focus on being the best designated hitter he can be.

Essentially, Benintendi raises the floor of the 2023 Sox. He's not a All-Star. He's not going to carry the team. But he can provide some stability, and prevent the Sox from being tempted to play a first baseman in the corner outfield. 

The expectation should be a 2.0 to 3.0 WAR season for Benintendi. If he does that, he's a complementary piece to the so-called "core," whom the Sox are counting on to carry them back to the playoffs in 2023.

Friday, December 16, 2022

Carlos Rodon joining Yankees on 6-year contract

Carlos Rodon
Former White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon on Thursday agreed to a six-year, $162 million contract with the New York Yankees.

My first thought was, "Didn't Rodon always pitch well against the Yankees?"

The answer to that is, yes, he did, especially at Yankee Stadium. As pointed out by Chris Kamka on Twitter, Rodon has made four career starts in the Bronx. He's 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA.

But perhaps his most memorable outing was his no-decision, which came on May 21, 2021. Rodon went six shutout innings, allowing only two hits. He struck out 13(!) and walked none. Of course, the Sox found a way to lose that game, 2-1, because neither Michael Kopech nor Evan Marshall pitched well in relief.

That particular game served notice that Rodon was healthy and operating at his peak power, and he's been mostly good ever since. His one season in San Francisco turned out well -- 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA in a career-high 31 starts. He finished sixth in the 2022 NL Cy Young voting.

Of course, health will always be the question with Rodon. When he pitches, he's good. However, he's probably a bad bet to make it through a six-year contract without landing on the injured list a few times.

That said, if Rodon makes it to October 2023 in one piece, the Yankees finally have a legitimate No. 2 starter to pair with Gerrit Cole. That increases their odds of finally getting past the Houston Astros in the American League playoffs.

I would call this move "high-risk, high-reward" for the Yankees, but given their position, it's the right gamble to take.

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Carlos Correa signs 13-year deal (!) with San Francisco Giants

Carlos Correa
The San Francisco Giants swung and missed in their attempt to sign Aaron Judge, who was the biggest free agent on the market this offseason.

Give the Giants credit. They dusted themselves off and took a big swing at the second-biggest free agent available. This time, they converted, reeling in All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa with a 13-year, $350 million contract.

Thirteen years!

Correa is 28 years old, a superstar in the prime of his career. I don't doubt for one second that Correa is going to be tremendously productive during the front half of that contract. The back half? We'll see. The deal takes him through his age-40 season. He might not be so good by then, but if the Giants win the World Series while Correa is still an elite player, I'm sure they can live with it.

The thing about Correa is, he was a free agent last offseason, too. He signed with the Minnesota Twins for three years, $105 million -- with an opt out after each season. After one season with Minnesota, he opted out and bet on himself. Now, he's cashed in big.

I've heard that Correa was looking for a 10-year deal last year. The Cubs were among the teams interested, but ultimately, nobody was willing to give him that length of contract. Had a team offered him that, they'd probably have Correa under contract for nine more years at this point.

Instead, he went back on the open market and got himself 13 years, after two other prominent shortstops signed for 11 years -- Trea Turner in Philadelphia and Xander Bogaerts in San Diego.

It just goes to show that the price for these elite players only tends to go up. Some of these teams that are waiting for the price to come down to levels they are "comfortable" with, that's just a failing strategy.

Now, Dansby Swanson is the top remaining shortstop on the market. He's a good player, but he's not a franchise changer like Correa or Turner.

However, I won't be surprised if some team gives Swanson the contract that Correa should have gotten last season.


Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Some other MLB free agent signings

The Carlos Correa speculation is in overdrive here in Chicago. Being a White Sox fan, it doesn't concern me. I'll root against Correa no matter where he signs. While that media firestorm continues, here's a look at some other recent free agent signings: 

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Sean Murphy heads to Atlanta Braves in three-team, nine-player deal

The trade market hasn't been particularly "fruitful" so far this offseason, but Monday brought what I would call the first major swap of the winter, with the Atlanta Braves acquiring catcher Sean Murphy in a three-team, nine-player deal.

Here's the breakdown:

Atlanta gets: Murphy

The Oakland A's get: LHP Kyle Muller, OF Esteury Ruiz, RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Royber Salinas, C Manny Piña

The Milwaukee Brewers get: C William Contreras, RHP Justin Yeager, RHP Joel Payamps

Murphy batted .250/.332/.426 with 18 home runs and 66 RBIs in 148 games with Oakland last season. He's considered an elite defender, having won a Gold Glove during the 2021 season.

The Braves gave up a 24-year-old catcher in Contreras as part of this swap. Contreras hit .278 with 20 homers last season, so no doubt the Brewers are looking at him to be an upgrade over Omar Narvaez, who is a free agent this offseason.

Murphy simply gives the Braves more consistent defense behind the plate, which is what they are looking for in the middle of their contention window.

From Oakland's perspective, this deal is about acquiring futures, although Muller and Tarnok pitched some for the Braves last season and could be ready for a longer look at the MLB level.

My main reaction: Hey, at least Cleveland didn't acquire Murphy. We know catching is a hole for the Guardians, and Murphy would be a great fit there. He's a great fit in most places, in fact.

There was one move in the AL Central on Monday, as the Minnesota Twins signed catcher Christian Vazquez to a three-year, $30 million deal.

The move makes sense for the Twins, since their catchers combined to post a .630 OPS last season. Neither Gary Sanchez nor Ryan Jeffers were getting it done.

Enter the 32-year-old Vazquez, who won a World Series ring in 2022 with the Houston Astros, after being traded midseason from the Boston Red Sox.

Vazquez batted .274/.315/.399 last season with nine homers and 52 RBIs. He's respectable, and that's an upgrade for the Twins at that position.

Monday, December 12, 2022

New York Mets continue to spend money in free agency

It feels as though not a day goes by without the New York Mets signing another free agent.

The Mets added to their starting rotation on Friday by signing right-hander Kodai Senga to a five-year deal worth $75 million. For those not familiar with Senga, he's a 29-year-old who has pitched 11 seasons in the Nippon Professional Baseball league, going 104-51 with a 2.42 ERA over 275 starts.

Earlier this offseason, the Mets signed AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander and veteran left-hander Jose Quintana. With ace Max Scherzer and right-hander Carlos Carrasco also in the rotation, New York seems set on the starting pitching front -- even though Jacob deGrom is now a member of the Texas Rangers.

This offseason, the Mets have also retained outfielder Brandon Nimmo on a eight-year, $162 million deal, and closer Edwin Diaz on a five-year, $102 million deal. They also added veteran reliever David Robertson for one year and $10 million.

New York's estimated payroll is now about $345 million, which would be an all-time high if they don't shed salaries in trades between now and the start of the 2023 season. If the payroll holds, Mets owner Steve Cohen will have to pay $76.2 million in luxury tax penalties. With the way that team is spending, it seems as though he doesn't care.

Must be nice as a fan.

In case you were wondering, the biggest free agent contract the White Sox have ever handed out was to catcher Yasmani Grandal, who is entering the fourth and final year of a $73 million contract.

In other words, Cohen could pay more in luxury tax penalties in 2023 than Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf has ever paid to a free agent.