Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale joining new teams

Lucas Giolito

Erase the idea of Lucas Giolito coming back to the White Sox on a one-year prove-it deal. The 29-year-old right-hander did better than that on the open market, securing a two-year contract worth $38.5 million from the Boston Red Sox.

Giolito will earn $18 million in 2024, with an option to get out of the deal next winter. He will receive a $1 million buyout if he opts out. His 2025 salary will be $19 million if he opts in.

If he opts in, that activates a conditional option covering 2026. If Giolito throws fewer than 140 innings in 2025, the Red Sox have a $14 million team option for 2026. If Giolito tops 140 innings, there's a $19 million mutual option. Buyouts in either case would total $1.5 million.

Giolito had a bizarre 2023 campaign. The White Sox traded him to the Los Angeles Angels in late July. Eventually, the Angels placed him on waivers, where he was claimed by Cleveland. He finished his season with the Guardians. Here's how he fared with each of the three teams:

• White Sox: 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA over 20 starts; 134 Ks in 121 IP.
• Angels: 1-5 with a 6.89 ERA over 6 starts; 34 Ks in 32.2 IP.
• Guardians: 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA over 6 starts; 39 Ks in 30.2 IP.

Would you believe it if I told you Giolito allowed 41 home runs over 184.1 innings last season? Forty-one!

But here's the funny thing: He allowed 20 of those homers over his 21 starts with Chicago. That home run rate is certainly higher than one might like, but that's nothing until you consider that Giolito allowed 21(!) homers in his combined 12 starts with the Angels and Guardians.

Indeed, this is the rare player who got WORSE when he left the White Sox. He couldn't keep the ball in the yard with the Angels or Guardians. What does that mean for him pitching with Boston and the short porch in left field at Fenway Park? We shall see.

What we do know is Giolito will not be teammates with former Sox ace Chris Sale, who was traded from Boston to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom. Sale waived his no-trade clause, and Boston included $17 million in the deal to help the Braves cope with Sale's $27.5 million salary for this upcoming season.

Around here, we're not too interested in the composition of the Atlanta rotation, but I do think this move means the Braves are OUT on any potential deal for Sox right-hander Dylan Cease. Atlanta just wasn't going to give up multiple prospects to fortify its pitching staff, and it didn't have to do that in order to acquire Sale.

If you're still thinking Cease will be on the move this offseason, potential suitors might include the Red Sox, as well as the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees or Cincinnati Reds.

What does the White Sox starting pitching staff look like entering 2024?

Dylan Cease

Please hold your nose as we delve into the state of the White Sox starting pitching staff as the calendar turns to a new year.

The most recent Sox pitching addition? That would be 29-year-old right-hander Chris Flexen, who recently agreed to a one-year contract worth $1.75 million, with an extra $1 million available if he hits certain performance bonuses.

Once upon a time, two years ago, Flexen was a productive pitcher for the Seattle Mariners. He went 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA over 31 starts in 179.2 innings in 2021. He backed that up by going 8-9 with a 3.73 ERA over 33 games (22 starts) in 137.2 innings in 2022.

We'd take either of those two years from him right now, wouldn't we, Sox fans?

Well, don't count on it because Flexen had a disastrous 2023. He pitched in 17 games with the Mariners and got DFA'd in late June after going 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA. He bounced from the New York Mets to the Colorado Rockies, and while in Denver, he started 12 games and went 2-4 with 6.37 ERA.

The only blessing? Flexen once again was durable enough to clear 100 innings -- he pitched 102.1 innings between the Mariners and the Rockies -- and that's not nothing.

However, he allowed more earned runs (78) than he had strikeouts (74), and opponents slugged .740 against his four-seam fastball. Flexen surrendered 25 home runs in 2023.

There's a reason he's available for cheap on a one-year deal, friends. Maybe Sox pitching guru Brian Bannister and pitching coach Ethan Katz have a recipe for Flexen to regain his 2021-22 form, but this signing is nothing but a huge question mark.

So, here's how the five-man rotation sets up, as we sit here on the evening of Jan. 2:

1. Dylan Cease
2. Erick Fedde
   
3. Michael Soroka
4. Flexen
5. Touki Toussaint or Michael Kopech
   

There's still a real possibility Cease gets traded, perhaps sooner rather than later, but he's here for now. After finishing second in the Cy Young voting in 2022, Cease's ERA spiked from 2.20 to 4.58 in 2023. The underlying metrics suggest Cease isn't as good as he was in 2022, but he isn't as bad as he was in 2023, either. 

If you look at Cease's 2021 numbers -- 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 165.2 innings, with a 1.249 WHIP and a 12.3 K/9 -- that seems like a reasonable expectation. Maybe with a slightly lower K rate, but you get the point.

Fedde might be the "big free agent acquisition" for the offseason. As we noted earlier on this blog, he had a big season in the Korean League last year.

Soroka, of course, came over from the Atlanta Braves in the Aaron Bummer deal. He was great in 2019, but injuries have limited him every year since. Will he be healthy? And if he is, what are the Sox getting? Who knows?

Kopech is both wild and an injury risk, and he's probably down to his last chance to stick in the starting rotation after a disastrous 2023 that saw him go 5-12 with a 5.43 ERA. Toussaint and Flexen are reclamation projects at this stage of their careers. The Sox were lucky to coax 83.1 innings out of Toussaint last season.

As in any baseball season, a team needs more than five or six starters to get through 162 games. Here are some other guys the Sox might use in 2024:

• Jared Shuster
• Jesse Scholtens
• Nick Nastrini
• Jake Eder
• Cristian Mena
• Davis Martin

Shuster is a change-of-scenery lefty who came over from the Braves with Soroka in the Bummer deal. Scholtens got 85 innings with the Sox last year, and there were diminishing returns as the season moved along. Nastrini is a prospect acquired from the Dodgers midseason last year. Eder is a lefty prospect who came from the Marlins in the Jake Burger trade. 

Mena is a 21-year-old righty who pitched as high as Triple-A Charlotte in 2023. Some have forgotten about Martin, who made nine starts in 2022. He missed 2023 with elbow surgery, but could contribute to the Sox late in 2024.

Add all this up, and two things are true: 1) The Sox have options, but many of them are suspect, and 2) This type of rotation projection gets you picked to finish last, even in the sad-sack American League Central.

White Sox make offseason changes at catcher

Martin Maldonado

When the offseason began, it looked as though the White Sox were poised to play younger players at catcher in 2024.

Both 25-year-old Korey Lee and 27-year-old Carlos Perez had spots on the 40-man roster. Both have some major league experience, and the conventional thinking was at least one of them would be with the team when the season starts in March.

Now, perhaps not.

The Sox are adding 37-year-old catcher Martin Maldonado on a one-year deal, according to reports. The contract is worth $4 million, and reportedly contains a vesting option for the 2025 season.

Earlier in December, the Sox acquired 32-year-old veteran catcher Max Stassi from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for cash and a player to be named later.

Maldonado comes to the Sox from Houston. He was the starting catcher for the Astros from 2019 to 2023, and he was part of two American League pennant winners (2019, 2022) and one World Series champion.

He has a reputation as a terrific defensive catcher, although his framing statistics fell off a cliff in 2023. He's still a good blocker and thrower, but he's a notoriously weak hitter.

Here are his offensive numbers from the past three seasons:

• 2021: .172/.272/.300, 12 home runs, 36 RBIs
• 2022: .186/.248/.352, 15 home runs, 45 RBIs
• 2023: .191/.258/.348, 15 home runs, 36 RBIs

In short, expect Maldonado to bat ninth, hit the occasional home run and otherwise be terrible with a bat in his hands. The Sox will be counting on him to provide veteran leadership and game-planning to help what figures to be a young pitching staff.

Stassi did not play during the 2023 season because of a hip injury and a family health emergency -- his son was born three months premature in April. 

When he was last seen on a major league field in 2022, Stassi struggled with the Los Angeles Angels. He batted .180/.267/.303 with nine home runs and 30 RBIs in 102 games.

But, in 2020 and 2021, Stassi was serviceable for the Angels. If you combine his numbers over those two seasons, they pencil out to a .250/.333/.452 batting line with 20 homers over 118 games. His defensive metrics all were strong, so that's a useful profile if he can regain that form.

Perez was recently designated for assignment, so we can eliminate him from the 2024 catching mix. Maldonado will certainly be on the team, if healthy, so that leaves Lee and Stassi competing for a roster spot.

Lee got 24 games in with the Sox last year, after coming over from the Astros in the Kendall Graveman trade, but he didn't do much with the opportunity. His defense was OK, but it certainly wasn't enough to overcome a .077/.143/.138 slash line in 70 plate appearances.

Also notable on the organizational depth chart is 24-year-old Adam Hackenburg, who has a good defensive reputation and ascended to Triple-A Charlotte by the end of 2023.

Hackenburg also had his best season at the plate. He batted .271/.366/.388 with eight home runs and 30 RBIs in 101 games split between Charlotte and Double-A Birmingham.

The intrigue here comes with whether Maldonado and/or Stassi can improve the Sox's game preparation. The 2023 season began with manager Pedro Grifol and field coordinator Mike Tosar boasting about how the team would be "elite" in that area.

After 101 losses, the season ended with Grifol lamenting how the Sox were actually subpar in that area. Interestingly, he didn't make those remarks until after the previous catching duo (Yasmani Grandal and Seby Zavala) had been shown the exit. 

If Grandal and Zavala were poor in that area, Grifol should have stepped in and addressed it during the season. Perhaps he tried and failed. From the outside, how are we to know? 

But, it is 100% fair to not trust Grifol to deliver on his promise of "elite preparation" after what we saw last year. So, perhaps it falls to Maldonado to clean up the mess. That won't be easy for a player in his first (and maybe his only) year with the organization, but that's the task at hand.

Happy 2024 from The Baseball Kid

 

Merry Christmas from The Baseball Kid

 

'Winter with the White Sox' apparently replacing SoxFest

The White Sox haven't conducted SoxFest since 2020, and there won't be such an event this January either.

However, there will be a "Winter with the White Sox" gathering for season ticket holders on Jan. 26, 2024. I received a "save the date" email on Tuesday afternoon. 

This is a little surprising because I have not renewed my season tickets for the 2024 season, and frankly, I do not intend to renew. I do not expect to be included on emails such as this. 

Perhaps they are trying to entice me to renew by offering me access to this special event. That will not work.

It's bizarre for the Sox to send a "save the date" without telling potential attendees what the venue will be, or what the event will entail.

I mean, are they going to host this at Guaranteed Rate Field? It's a little cold there in January, right? Maybe they'll have the event in Nashville, since Jerry Reinsdorf wants to move the team there, LOL.

To be honest, even if I were invited, I don't think I want to go to this event. I'm not excited about the 2024 Sox. They haven't made any impact acquisitions this offseason, coming off a 61-101 season. And that, ultimately, is the reason I'm not renewing my season tickets. It isn't fun to be a fan of this organization anymore.

I will be interested to hear what type of activities they will be offering at this occasion. Here are a few guesses:

• Meet your ticket representative and discuss upgrading your seats!
• Purchase a spring training travel package now! See Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Camelback Ranch (and the Sox too)!
• Buy discounted merchandise! You will never get a better deal on Ronald Belisario's game-worn pants from 2014!
• Enter a raffle to win a White Sox bobblehead! Multiple winners will be drawn! (We have to get rid of these damn Yasmani Grandal bobbles sometime.)
• Meet "White Sox legend" Ron Kittle! Sure his career WAR is like 4.7, but he won American League Rookie of the Year 40 years ago! Bring your kids for autographs, even though Ronny retired 20 to 25 years before they were born!

That's the kind of stuff the Sox generally come up with these days. They are simply out of ideas. I wish I had better things to say about the organization, but it's just a sorry state of affairs.

Notice how I managed to work Ohtani into this blog. The metrics show that mentioning him increases traffic by leaps and bounds. 

You don't think people are actually visiting this site because they enjoy reading about the Sox, do you?

Shohei Ohtani defers 97% of his $700M contract with Dodgers

It comes as no surprise that two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But the dollar figure gave a lot of observers some sticker shock: 10 years, $700 million.

Previously, the biggest outlay in baseball history had gone to Ohtani's former teammate with the Los Angeles Angels, Mike Trout, whose contract calls for $426.5 million over 12 years.

This deal obviously blows that out of the water, but it comes with an interesting twist: Ohtani is deferring $680 million of that money.

The two-time MVP will earn just $2 million per season from now until 2033. Then the Dodgers will owe him $68 million annually every year from 2034 until 2043.

Why do this? It's all about taxes -- the competitive balance tax and income tax. The competitive balance tax payroll for each team typically uses the average annual value of contracts, which is $70 million in this case, but there's a discount for deferred money.

I'm not a good accountant, so I'm not sure how we arrive at this figure, but media reports say Ohtani's cost toward the competitive balance tax payroll with be $46 million. Yeah, that's a lot less than $70 million.

If you add up the contracts for Ohtani and other Dodgers stars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, they account for about $100 million of Los Angeles' competitive balance tax payroll. The luxury tax kicks in at $237 million, so the Dodgers still have room to work to fill out their roster.

Also, presumably, Ohtani will moved back to his native Japan after he retires. I don't know what income taxes are there, but California is a highly taxed state. There might be some savings there if he defers his income until later.

What's the risk for Ohtani? Well, he's not collecting interest on these deferred dollars. With inflation, $68 million in 2043 probably won't go as far as it will in 2024 dollars. But maybe that's a ridiculous concern, given the absurd figures we're talking about here. And Ohtani is expected to make upward of $45 million per season in endorsements, so he's going to have plenty of income well beyond his base salary.

I've seen a lot of comments online from people who think this is "unfair" and "bad for baseball" and whatnot. I think that remains to be seen. Ohtani is a unicorn player, an elite hitter and an elite pitcher all in one. I'd be shocked if this sort of contract becomes common. Most players aren't going to be willing to accept these kinds of deferrals, and most teams aren't going to be willing to give them.

Mostly, I think the people who are upset are just mad that Ohtani is not on their favorite team. It's clear that Ohtani is structuring his contract to give the Dodgers a better chance to win. He wants to go to the World Series. The Dodgers are trying to win a World Series, and they've done nothing here that violates the collective bargaining agreement.

I wish my favorite team was trying to win the World Series.