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| Dylan Cease |
The most recent Sox pitching addition? That would be 29-year-old right-hander Chris Flexen, who recently agreed to a one-year contract worth $1.75 million, with an extra $1 million available if he hits certain performance bonuses.
Once upon a time, two years ago, Flexen was a productive pitcher for the Seattle Mariners. He went 14-6 with a 3.61 ERA over 31 starts in 179.2 innings in 2021. He backed that up by going 8-9 with a 3.73 ERA over 33 games (22 starts) in 137.2 innings in 2022.
We'd take either of those two years from him right now, wouldn't we, Sox fans?
Well, don't count on it because Flexen had a disastrous 2023. He pitched in 17 games with the Mariners and got DFA'd in late June after going 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA. He bounced from the New York Mets to the Colorado Rockies, and while in Denver, he started 12 games and went 2-4 with 6.37 ERA.
The only blessing? Flexen once again was durable enough to clear 100 innings -- he pitched 102.1 innings between the Mariners and the Rockies -- and that's not nothing.
However, he allowed more earned runs (78) than he had strikeouts (74), and opponents slugged .740 against his four-seam fastball. Flexen surrendered 25 home runs in 2023.
There's a reason he's available for cheap on a one-year deal, friends. Maybe Sox pitching guru Brian Bannister and pitching coach Ethan Katz have a recipe for Flexen to regain his 2021-22 form, but this signing is nothing but a huge question mark.
So, here's how the five-man rotation sets up, as we sit here on the evening of Jan. 2:
There's still a real possibility Cease gets traded, perhaps sooner rather than later, but he's here for now. After finishing second in the Cy Young voting in 2022, Cease's ERA spiked from 2.20 to 4.58 in 2023. The underlying metrics suggest Cease isn't as good as he was in 2022, but he isn't as bad as he was in 2023, either.
If you look at Cease's 2021 numbers -- 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 165.2 innings, with a 1.249 WHIP and a 12.3 K/9 -- that seems like a reasonable expectation. Maybe with a slightly lower K rate, but you get the point.
Fedde might be the "big free agent acquisition" for the offseason. As we noted earlier on this blog, he had a big season in the Korean League last year.
Soroka, of course, came over from the Atlanta Braves in the Aaron Bummer deal. He was great in 2019, but injuries have limited him every year since. Will he be healthy? And if he is, what are the Sox getting? Who knows?
Kopech is both wild and an injury risk, and he's probably down to his last chance to stick in the starting rotation after a disastrous 2023 that saw him go 5-12 with a 5.43 ERA. Toussaint and Flexen are reclamation projects at this stage of their careers. The Sox were lucky to coax 83.1 innings out of Toussaint last season.
As in any baseball season, a team needs more than five or six starters to get through 162 games. Here are some other guys the Sox might use in 2024:
Shuster is a change-of-scenery lefty who came over from the Braves with Soroka in the Bummer deal. Scholtens got 85 innings with the Sox last year, and there were diminishing returns as the season moved along. Nastrini is a prospect acquired from the Dodgers midseason last year. Eder is a lefty prospect who came from the Marlins in the Jake Burger trade.
Mena is a 21-year-old righty who pitched as high as Triple-A Charlotte in 2023. Some have forgotten about Martin, who made nine starts in 2022. He missed 2023 with elbow surgery, but could contribute to the Sox late in 2024.
Add all this up, and two things are true: 1) The Sox have options, but many of them are suspect, and 2) This type of rotation projection gets you picked to finish last, even in the sad-sack American League Central.
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