Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Game 6 of the World Series ... a couple of key questions

Justin Verlander
The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home, facing a must-win situation Tuesday in Game 6 of the 2017 World Series. The Houston Astros lead the series, 3-2, and have two chances to capture the first championship in franchise history, but they'll have to do it on the road.

It would be hard for Game 6 to top the drama of Game 5, but here's a couple of key questions -- one for each team -- going into this game.

For Houston .... who closes?

The Astros have it set up just the way they want it. Their best pitcher, Justin Verlander, is on the mound with a chance to secure a title. Both bullpens are taxed, so it's a huge advantage for Houston to have this right-hander on its side. Verlander is the only starting pitcher to complete a game in these playoffs.

Can Verlander go all nine innings in Game 6? Well, maybe, but that's a lot to ask. And what happens if Verlander gets through seven or eight innings with a lead, but doesn't have enough left in the tank to finish?

Where do the Astros turn when their two best relievers during the season -- Ken Giles and Chris Devenski -- have blown multi-run leads during this series and generally have been arsonists?

How about Lance McCullers? Sure, he's slated to start Game 7, if necessary. But if you're Houston manager A.J. Hinch, and you have a lead late in Game 6, perhaps you push your chips to the center of the table, go to your best option and try to close it out right then and there.

For me, the next-best option after Verlander is McCullers.

For Los Angeles ... how long can Rich Hill go?

Hill started Game 2 for the Dodgers, and he was effective. He allowed only one run over four innings, but he was given a quick hook. Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts just wanted Hill to get through the Houston batting order twice before turning it over to the bullpen, which had been dominant up until that point in the postseason.

That backfired on Roberts in Game 2. Dodgers relievers coughed up six runs in a 7-6 loss, and Houston has been proving over and over again since that it can score against the Los Angeles bullpen.

As we've noted, Kenley Jansen and Brandon Morrow have been used a lot. They probably cannot be counted upon for multiple innings in this game, even though it is a must-win for the Dodgers.

It's imperative that Hill pitch effectively into the sixth inning, and perhaps he needs to get through the sixth inning for the Dodgers to win.

Based on what I've seen, Roberts needs to stay away from Morrow in this game. Kenta Maeda and Tony Watson seem to be the best bets to form a bridge from Hill to Jansen. And, yes, despite Jansen's diminished effectiveness, I think the Dodgers should go to him in a closing situation. He's still their best option, but they probably shouldn't ask him for more than three outs.

If Los Angeles can get through this Game 6, then maybe it can go Yu Darvish to Morrow to Jansen in a Game 7 situation.

Monday, October 30, 2017

Astros beat Dodgers' best pitchers, take 3-2 lead in World Series

Alex Bregman
Five hours, 17 minutes of baseball.

Game 5 of the 2017 World Series was both exhilarating and exhausting, even for those who are not a fan of either team.

The game ended at 12:37 a.m. CDT Monday, when Alex Bregman's RBI single off Kenley Jansen in the bottom of the 10th inning lifted the Houston Astros to a 13-12 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

With the win, the Astros lead the series, 3-2. Monday is a travel day, and Game 6 is Tuesday night in Los Angeles.

The plot twists and turns in this game were many. The Dodgers scored three runs in the first inning off Houston's Dallas Keuchel and led, 4-0, going into the bottom of the fourth inning. The Astros responded with four runs off Clayton Kershaw to tie the game.

Not to be outdone, Cody Bellinger put the Dodgers back in front, 7-4, with a three-run homer in the top of the fifth inning. Kershaw had a lead for the second time, and for the second time, he could not hold it. He allowed two men to reach base in the bottom of the fifth before he was removed from the game. Jose Altuve tied it at 7 with a three-run homer off Kenta Maeda.

From the seventh inning through the ninth inning, 10 runs were scored -- five by each team. The Dodgers scored three runs in the top of the ninth off Houston's Chris Devenski to tie the score at 12 and force extra innings.

Neither team could put the other away until Bregman's single capped a two-out rally in the bottom of the 10th.

So, what do we make of all this? First and foremost, the Astros beat the best pitchers the Dodgers have to offer in a critical Game 5.

Kershaw is widely considered the "best pitcher of his generation," and who are we to argue? But he was on the mound with a four-run lead, and then a three-run lead, on Sunday night, yet the Dodgers did not win. Los Angeles scored 12 runs in a game started by Kershaw. 12 runs! It wasn't enough.

That is huge.

And Jansen, widely considered the best relief pitcher in the game -- the Mariano Rivera of this generation -- lost the game in the bottom of the 10th. Sure, he worked a scoreless ninth, too, but stretching him for a second inning backfired on the Dodgers.

Los Angeles now trails in this series, and Kershaw won't be able to make another start. Jansen, who was considered invincible after being unscored upon in the NLCS against the Cubs, has now been scored upon by the Astros in each of his past three outings.

Worth noting: The Dodgers have played 13 postseason games this October, and Jansen has appeared in 11 of them. Fatigue? Sure looks like it.

And Jansen isn't the only one.

Brandon Morrow also was unscored upon in his four NLCS outings against the Cubs, covering 4.2 innings. But Sunday, he threw six pitches and gave up four earned runs. He was summoned to protect an 8-7 lead in the bottom of the seventh inning. One pitch later, it was 8-8, courtesy of a 448-foot home run by George Springer.

Very quickly, the Dodgers' one-run lead became an 11-8 deficit.

Morrow has appeared in 12 of Los Angeles' 13 playoff games. He has very little left in the tank.

As we've noted, the Astros are not without their bullpen problems. Closer Ken Giles is not the closer anymore. He's been so bad that Houston did not use him in Game 5. They used Devenski instead, and he couldn't get the job done -- he doesn't have much to get right-handed hitters out with at this point. Yasiel Puig hit a two-run homer off him in the ninth inning. Austin Barnes had a hustle double and scored the tying run on a two-out single by Chris Taylor.

What do those three men have in common? All right-handed hitters, and Devenski's changeup isn't as effective against them as it is against lefties.

So, both bullpens in this series are in trouble. Who has the advantage for Game 6? On paper, it's the team with the better starter going to the mound. That is clearly the Astros, as they have Justin Verlander lined up to pitch. The Dodgers will counter with veteran lefty Rich Hill.

Verlander, who was acquired from the Detroit Tigers just before the Aug. 31 waiver deadline, has appeared in 10 games with the Astros. Houston is 10-0.

Astros fans have to like their chances. Or, maybe Verlander is due to lose. Nothing would be shocking in this unbelievable World Series, where up is down and down is up.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

World Series tied 1-all after Houston wins wild Game 2

George Springer
So, how are we liking the World Series so far? There have been two great games, with one win for each team, and Game 2 is one baseball fans are likely to remember for a long time.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were up, 3-1, after seven innings Wednesday night. They were on the verge of taking a 2-0 series lead, and their bullpen had been unscored upon since Game 2 of the NLDS.

So, of course, the Houston Astros hit four home runs and scored six runs in a span of four innings off the Los Angeles bullpen on their way to a 7-6 victory in 11 innings.

The series is tied, and the Astros go back to their home park -- where they are 6-0 in the postseason -- for Games 3, 4 and 5. Remember, I asked the question the other day, "Who will win on the road first?" Houston got that all-important first road win.

Perhaps more importantly, the Astros proved to themselves and everyone else that it is possible to score runs against Kenley Jansen and Brandon Morrow.

Houston chipped away at that 3-1 deficit in the eighth inning with Alex Bregman doubling off Morrow, and scoring when Carlos Correa singled off Jansen.

Marwin Gonzalez handed Jansen a blown save in the ninth when he tied it at 3 with a solo home run to center field on an 0-2 pitch. Is Jansen finally showing signs of fatigue after being used in four of the five games in the NLCS, plus each of the first two games of the World Series? Not sure, but we'll see.

The Astros took a 5-3 lead in the top of the 10th on back-to-back homers by Jose Altuve and Correa off Josh Fields. But, remember, Houston has bullpen trouble of its own. Ken Giles has not been impressive as a closer in these playoffs, and he could not close the deal in the bottom of the 10th inning.

Yasiel Puig brought the Dodgers within a run at 5-4 with a solo home run. Enrique Hernandez delivered a two-out RBI single to tie the game at 5 and force an 11th inning.

Los Angeles summoned former White Sox right-hander Brandon McCarthy from the bullpen for the 11th inning. McCarthy had not pitched since Oct. 1, and it showed. Cameron Maybin singled, stole second and scored on a two-run homer by George Springer. 7-5 Astros.

Chris Devenski relieved Giles, and he wasn't exactly lights out in the bottom of the 11th, either. Charlie Culberson homered with two outs to make it 7-6. That brought Puig to the plate, and he struck out swinging after a dramatic nine-pitch at-bat.

Give Devenski credit for this: He knew Puig was not going to take a walk. Puig wanted to be a hero in that situation, and Devenski got him swinging at a changeup that was down and out of the zone. That off-speed pitch is the best thing Devenski has in his arsenal anyway, but he was wise to throw it not for a strike, but close enough to be way too tantalizing for the overanxious Puig to lay off.

Smart pitch. Astros hang on.

Can't wait for Game 3.

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

A few thoughts on the World Series matchup before it begins

Jose Altuve
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday night. Before the series begins, here's a few things to think about as we watch:

1. Who will win on the road first?

The Dodgers are 4-0 at home this postseason. The Astros are 6-0. It has been difficult for any team to win on the road in these playoffs. Home teams are 23-8 so far, which is a winning percentage of .742.

Los Angeles has home-field advantage, and that's no small thing. The Dodgers were a league-best 57-24 at home this season, and they've won 165 games at home over the past three years. That's 11 more than any other team in baseball. If this comes down to a seventh game, do you think Los Angeles will be happy to be playing at home? Oh, I think so.

It would be huge for Houston to split the first two games of the series, and put itself in a position where it can take control of the series at home. The Astros have outscored their opponents 31-7 in their six home postseason games. Houston has not given up more than two runs in any of those six games.

2. Can Houston's offense get hot?

I've been saying most of the season that the Astros have the deepest lineup I've seen in many years, led by AL batting champion and MVP candidate Jose Altuve.

Houston had a league-best .478 slugging percentage as a team this year, and it also scored a league-best 5.53 runs per game.

Even though the New York Yankees have a deep pitching staff, it was shocking to see the Astros held to a .181/.271/.294 team slash line in the seven-game ALCS. Obviously, Houston won in spite of that, and you can't help but feel this lineup is due for a breakout.

It better break out, if the Astros are going to beat the Dodgers.

3. Battle of the bullpens

There's one area where Los Angeles has a clear edge in the series, and that's in the bullpen. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is among the game's best, if not the best, and I'd have a lot more confidence with him on the mound in the ninth inning with a one-run lead than I would Houston closer Ken Giles.

Los Angeles is deeper than Houston. Brandon Morrow started the season in the minor leagues, but he's now the Dodgers' best weapon in the seventh and eighth innings, having held opponents to a .194 batting average this season. Los Angeles also fortified itself with two midseason trades for left-handed relievers. Both Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani can be trusted in high-leverage situations.

As for Houston, in Game 7 of the ALCS, starter Charlie Morton pitched five shutout innings in the 4-0 win over the Yankees. The Astros went to Lance McCullers, who is normally a starter, as the first man out of the bullpen. McCullers finished the game, which is both a testament to how well he pitched in relief, and to the fact that the Astros don't know whom they can trust out of their bullpen.

Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrove struggled in the ALCS, and so did Giles, who had a 9.00 ERA in three appearances against the Yankees. The only left-handed Houston reliever is journeyman Francisco Liriano. He's not to be trusted, either.

Kershaw vs. Keuchel

It's the Game 1 pitching matchup. It also would be the likely Game 5 matchup. Two former Cy Young award winners.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher of his generation. He's finally on the big stage, so let's see what he does with that. This should be his moment.

I think the formula for Dodgers success in this series involves two wins for Kershaw. On the flip side of the coin, if Dallas Keuchel can outpitch Kershaw -- especially in Game 1 -- what a boost that would be for the Astros.

Monday, October 23, 2017

Two 100-plus-win teams make World Series for first time since 1970

Clayton Kershaw
For the first time since 1970, the World Series will feature two teams that won 100 games or more in the regular season.

The 104-win Los Angeles Dodgers eliminated the defending world champion Cubs in five games in the NLCS, while the 101-win Houston Astros rallied from a 3-2 series deficit to defeat the New York Yankees in seven games in the ALCS.

This will mark only the eighth time in baseball history that two 100-plus-win teams have met in the World Series. It's only happened three times since World War II.

Here is the list:

1910: Philadelphia A's (102-48) def. Cubs (104-50), 4-1
1912: Boston Red Sox (105-47) def. New York Giants (103-48), 4-3
1931: St. Louis Cardinals (101-53) def. Philadelphia A's (107-45), 4-3
1941: New York Yankees (101-53) def. Brooklyn Dodgers (110-54), 4-1
1942: St. Louis Cardinals (106-48) def. New York Yankees (103-51), 4-1
1969: New York Mets (100-62) def. Baltimore Orioles (109-53), 4-1
1970: Baltimore Orioles (108-54) def. Cincinnati Reds (102-60), 4-1
2017: Los Angeles Dodgers (104-58) vs. Houston Astros (101-61), ????

The Dodgers clinched Thursday, while the Astros clinched Saturday. The conventional wisdom says the team that clinches first has the advantage with more rest and the opportunity to set its starting rotation.

But here's your stat of the day on that: The last eight teams to clinch their league championship series first failed to win the World Series. Remember, last year the Cleveland Indians beat the Toronto Blue Jays in five games in the ALCS. They were sitting around waiting for the Cubs, who beat the Dodgers in six games. The Cubs, who were the less rested team, won the World Series in seven games.

The 2008 Philadelphia Phillies were the last team to clinch their league championship series first and go on to win the World Series.  So, don't assume the extra rest is an advantage for the Dodgers going into this thing.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Yankees rally from 0-2 series deficit, upset Indians

Didi Gregorius
The Cleveland Indians once had a 22-game winning streak. They finished the season winning 35 of their final 42 games.

None of that means much now, does it?

The New York Yankees are in the ALCS after winning Game 5 of the ALDS, 5-2, at Cleveland on Wednesday night.

I felt as though the Yankees would be a dangerous opponent for Cleveland, just because New York is the one team that can match the Indians' bullpen arm for arm. However, I never expected the Yankees to pull this thing off, especially after Cleveland won the first two games of the five-game series.

New York rallied to win the final three games of the series, and sure enough, strong bullpen work was essential in the Game 5 victory.

That said, we would be remiss if we did not point out that Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia outpitched Corey Kluber, the Cleveland ace and likely Cy Young Award winner in the American League this year.

Didi Gregorius touched Kluber up for two home runs, a solo shot in the first inning and a two-run blast in the third. Kluber lasted only 3.2 innings and left the mound in the top of the fourth inning with his team trailing, 3-0.

Sabathia, meanwhile, allowed no runs on only one hit through the first four innings. He ran into trouble in the fifth, when he gave up two runs on four hits.

The Indians cut the New York lead to 3-2, and had runners on first and second with only one out. But former White Sox reliever David Robertson came in and slammed the door, inducing Francisco Lindor to hit into an inning-ending double play.

Sabathia struck out nine over his 4.2 innings pitched, and that's all the Yankees needed from him with Robertson and Aroldis Chapman coming out of the bullpen.

Robertson played the role of super reliever perfectly, navigating a scoreless 2.2 innings. He did not allow a single hit and protected that one-run lead through the fifth, sixth and seventh innings.

That got the ball to Chapman, who struck out four and did not allow a hit while recording a six-out save.

The Yankees got a little breathing room in the top of the ninth inning, when Brett Gardner's single on the 12th pitch of an at-bat against Cleveland closer Cody Allen produced two runs to make it 5-2. Gardner fouled off five consecutive 3-2 pitches before getting the base hit. Credit him for a terrific job against one of the better relievers in the AL.

In Game 5, the Yankees' starter outpitched the Indians' starter, and the New York bullpen was better than the Cleveland bullpen. Add in a big-time performance from Gregorius, and there's your upset.

The Yankees are headed to Houston to open the ALCS on Friday night.

Nationals force Game 5

So, I guess sending Stephen Strasburg to the mound worked out OK for the Washington Nationals, huh?

Strasburg struck out 12 over seven shutout innings Wednesday, and the Nationals beat the Cubs, 5-0, to tie the NLDS at 2-all. I don't think Tanner Roark gives you that performance, Washington fans.

We probably wouldn't be talking about a Game 5 back in Washington on Thursday night if Roark had started that game.

The Nationals are at home for this decisive game, which can only help them. But I still think the Cubs have the advantage pitching-wise. Kyle Hendricks was brilliant in Game 1, and he'll start Game 5 on regular rest. Can the Washington offense solve him?

Washington will have to go with either Gio Gonzalez or Roark, but Max Scherzer should be able to give them a couple innings of relief, if necessary.

Still, I'd give the edge to the Cubs. But don't listen to me. I thought the Cubs would close out the Nationals in four. I also thought the Indians would beat the Yankees.

The only thing I know is that I know nothing about baseball.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

What is going on with Dusty Baker and the Washington Nationals?

Dusty Baker
Does Dusty Baker know that playoff baseball is different than regular-season baseball? Does he have any urgency to win whatsoever?

Baker and the Washington Nationals received a huge break Tuesday when Game 4 of their NLDS against the Cubs was postponed because of rain here in the Chicago area.

The Cubs lead the series, 2-1, and the Nationals are facing elimination in Game 4. The unexpected day off was a gift for Washington, because now it can start ace right-hander Stephen Strasburg on regular rest in this critical game.

Or so we thought.

After the postponement Tuesday, Baker instead announced he would be sticking with Tanner Roark for Game 4. That's the same Tanner Roark who has a 4.67 ERA pitching in the weak National League East this season.

Seriously, Dusty? That's the guy you want to pitch with your season on the line? Should this even be a debate?

Baker also claimed that Strasburg was battling illness, because there is a lot of mold in the air in Chicago at this time of year, and apparently the air conditioning wasn't working right at the Nationals' hotel or some such thing.

Talk about lame excuses.

I can attest that the mold count is a problem in Chicago right now. I suffer from a mold allergy, and I've struggled with it off and on for the past month or so. But you know what I do? I take some allergy medicine and go to work. It's kind of an annoying thing, but it's hardly debilitating. It doesn't prevent a person from doing his job.

Early Wednesday, Baker reversed course and announced that Strasburg will start Game 4. Duh. I assume someone from the Washington front office stepped in and knocked some sense into him. Even if Strasburg fails, this is an obvious move, and it should have been announced Tuesday to give Strasburg additional time to prepare himself mentally for the start.

But Baker isn't very good at strategy, and often fails to make the obvious move. Take Game 3, for example. With the game tied 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning, the Cubs had the go-ahead run on second base with two outs and Anthony Rizzo at the plate.

Baker had a number of options there. He had a solid reliever on the mound in Brandon Kintzler. He could have walked Rizzo and taken his chances with Willson Contreras, the Cubs' on-deck hitter. He could have brought in his best left-handed reliever, Sean Doolittle, to deal with Rizzo. Or, he could have walked Rizzo and brought in his best right-handed reliever, Ryan Madson, to deal with Contreras.

Instead, Baker opts to bring in 36-year-old journeyman lefty Oliver Perez, he of the 4.64 ERA. Rizzo singles on the first pitch from Perez, and the Cubs win Game 3, 2-1.

Nice move, Dusty, nice move. I guess he was saving Doolittle for the ninth inning, huh? Maybe you do that in the regular season, but certainly not in the playoffs.

Honestly, is there a manager out there who is a worse tactician than Dusty Baker? My goodness ...