White Sox sign left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel to three-year contract

Dallas Keuchel

The White Sox on Saturday moved to boost their starting rotation, agreeing to terms with left-hander Dallas Keuchel on a three-year, $55 million contract, according to reports.

The deal includes a vesting option for a fourth season that could take the value of the contract up to $74 million.

Keuchel, 31, won the Cy Young Award in 2015 as a member of the Houston Astros, and he helped that franchise win its only World Series title in 2017. He had a strange season in 2019 -- he was a free agent last offseason, but signed late with the Atlanta Braves, and he didn't pitch until June.

He compiled an 8-8 record with a 3.75 ERA in 19 starts and 112.1 innings pitched. He struck out 91, walked 39 and posted a 1.367 WHIP.

This signing is interesting. Keuchel was once an ace, but he's not anymore, but then again he's not being paid like an ace. For actual ace contracts, see Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. He's being paid like a stabilizing, mid-rotation veteran, and the hope is he can pitch like a stabilizing, mid-rotation veteran. Keuchel has three 200-plus inning seasons in his past, and he will be the only member of the Sox pitching staff to have ever reached the 200-inning threshold.

Here's how the rotation may look when the season starts:
1. Lucas Giolito
2. Keuchel
3. Reynaldo Lopez
4. Dylan Cease
5. Gio Gonzalez

And let's not forget, Michael Kopech is healthy and will join the rotation at some point.

The concern about Keuchel would be his age. At 31, his best season (2015) is five years in the past. He isn't going to go 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA again. He doesn't have the velocity that the stats guys love -- you're going to be seeing a lot of 87 mph sinkers. And it is true that Keuchel was not the Sox's top choice. That was Zack Wheeler, who signed a five-year deal with Philadelphia.

However, consider these things about Keuchel: He has compiled a 121 ERA+ over the past three seasons. That means he's been 21 percent better than league average over that time, and it's notable that these numbers DO NOT include his Cy Young season of 2015. He's also been healthy, knock on wood. There's only been one stint on the injured list in the past seven years, and that was for a pinched nerve in his neck. Keuchel has never missed time because of a shoulder or elbow problem. And Keuchel had a 60.1 groundball rate last season -- that's the best in baseball for any pitcher who threw more than 110 innings.

Now, whether the Sox infield can catch all those groundballs, that's a matter of debate. But I think that number demonstrates that Keuchel can still be an effective starter for the Sox, and I don't think three years and about $18 million per is an overpay at all -- especially when you consider what aces are receiving in the current marketplace.

Perhaps most importantly, this addition -- and the addition of Gonzalez -- sends pitchers such as Dylan Covey, Carson Fulmer and Ross Detwiler to the back of the line in terms of rotation options. Even if you don't care for these two additions, Keuchel and Gonzalez have a floor that is higher than the ceilings of pitchers such as Covey and Detwiler. At minimum, the Sox have made incremental progress here.