There are two ways to look at the five pitchers the White Sox selected in the 2020 MLB Draft. Glass half full: They got two of the top 18 prospects in the draft. Glass half empty: Well, those two guys better pan out, because those other three guys are nothing special.
Believe it or not, the highest-rated player the Sox took in this draft was the guy they took in the *second* round. First-round pick Garrett Crochet was rated 18th overall by MLB Pipeline, while second-round pick Jared Kelley was ranked as the 12th-best prospect in the draft.
How did this happen? Well, let's go over it.
Kelley, a 6-foot-4, 225-pound right-handed pitcher out of Refugio High School in Texas, was considered the best high school arm in the draft. He can run his fastball up there in the high 90s, and he already has a changeup that he can use in games. The breaking ball is a work in progress, but this is a kid who has two pitches he can get outs with from day one.
Before the coronavirus ended high school baseball seasons everywhere, Kelley worked 12 innings this spring without allowing a hit. He struck out 34 batters and was named Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year.
So, how in the hell did the No. 12 prospect in the draft fall all the way to the Sox at pick No. 47? You could argue it's because of Kelley's lack of a slider, but the real reason is teams didn't think he would sign a contract. Kelley is committed to the University of Texas, and apparently, most clubs believed he intended to honor that commitment.
Not so fast, because the Sox are going to pay an overslot deal to sign him, and I'm sure they would not have chosen him had they not determined he was amenable to signing.
For those unfamiliar with the process, the Sox had a pool total of $7,764,800 that they could spend on their five draft picks. The No. 11 pick was slotted at $4,547,500, the No. 47 pick at $1,580,200 and so on.
The Sox might very well pay Crochet, the No. 11 overall pick, that $4,547,500. However, there's no question they are going to pay Kelley more than $1,580,200 to sign with them.
In fact, it's quite likely the Sox will pay most of that $7,764,800 on their first two picks. The other three guys? They will take whatever is left, and the Sox quite intentionally chose guys who aren't in position to command much:
Third round: Adisyn Coffey, RHP, Wabash Valley CC
Fourth round: Kade Mechals, RHP, Grand Canyon University
Fifth round: Bailey Horn, LHP, Auburn University
Coffey and Mechals weren't even ranked among the top 500 prospects in the draft. Mechals and Horn have already had Tommy John surgery. You can see how the Sox probably won't need much money to get these guys to sign on the dotted line.
Coffey is 21 years old, old for a junior college player, and he was slated to head to the University of Louisville, where he was going to pitch in the bullpen. But hey, he throws 95 mph and has a slider. Maybe that two-pitch mix will some day amount to something.
Mechals, a college senior, is a 5-foot-11 sinker-slider righty who is lauded for his command and pitchability. He had Tommy John surgery in May, so see you sometime in late 2021. Odds are, Mechals will be a guy who can provide competent innings as organizational filler in Triple-A Charlotte or Double-A Birmingham. A big-league career would be a pleasant surprise.
Horn, a 6-foot-2 lefty, is healthy after missing the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. He made four starts at Auburn before the pandemic this spring, and he struck out 27 batters against five walks over 17.1 innings. The fastball sits at 92-93 mph. The slider is his second-best pitch, followed by his change. I've heard his curveball described as "meh."
In case you were wondering, the slot values for the third through fifth rounds are as follows:
Third round: $733,100
Fourth round: $517, 400
Fifth round: $386,600
I'm guessing those last three guys sign for below these figures, so that the first two guys -- especially Kelley -- can sign above theirs. Maybe Horn has a case to get the slot value, but Coffey and Mechals will definitely be below slot.
No comments:
Post a Comment