Who will fill the final two spots in the White Sox starting rotation?

Dylan Cease

White Sox general manager Rick Hahn opened spring training by saying that anything less than a World Series championship in 2021 would be a "disappointment."

That is a bold statement when we're talking about an organization that hasn't won a division championship since 2008, and hasn't won a playoff series since the 2005 World Series.

Let's just say I don't expect the Sox to achieve that goal. They most certainly should have a winning season. They should be a playoff contender, but I don't know if they belong on the short list of teams that deserve to be talked about as World Series contenders.

One of the reservations I have is the lack of depth in the starting rotation. We know who the top three are, don't we? Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel and Lance Lynn ... You could do a helluva lot worse than that. The only question there is, who starts Game 2 of the regular season?

Giolito is the ace and should start April 1 against the Los Angeles Angels. After that, it's Keuchel and Lynn in any order. But what about those No. 4 and No. 5 spots? I see five contenders, and let's list them in order from most likely to win a job, to least likely:

1. Dylan Cease. Of all the candidates, Cease is the only one who has both plus stuff and a track record of health over the past year. The 25-year-old right-hander made all 12 of his starts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and he went 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA. Not bad, but his shabby control -- a league-high 34 walks in 58.1 innings pitched -- led to him being relegated to the bullpen in the playoff series against the Oakland Athletics. New pitching coach Ethan Katz apparently is executing a plan to stop the glove-side run on Cease's fastball. We all know Cease has high-90s velocity, a good breaking ball and a usable changeup, so he's the No. 4 guy if he can find the plate a little more often.

2. Carlos Rodon. I've already vented on this blog about the decision to bring Rodon back. Every season, he seems to be worse and more injured than he was the season before. Nevertheless, the Sox can't quit him, and he was signed with the promise that he would be given an opportunity to compete for a starting role. Given how badly Rodon fared in relief last season, it's hard not to agree that he's better off as a starter. Accordingly, if he's healthy, it's hard not to see him having the inside track for the fifth spot in the rotation. If that's not his role, then what is? He's on a major-league deal, and he can't be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. One positive is he would provide a second left-hander for the rotation behind Keuchel, and he's obviously a different type of pitcher. Rodon has the high velocity and a power slider, while Keuchel is a sinkerballer with plus control.

3. Reynaldo Lopez. The once-promising 27-year-old has had two lousy years in a row. His ERA swelled to 5.38 in 33 starts in 2019, and 2020 brought injury problems and a 1-3 record with a 6.49 ERA in eight starts. Lopez pitched so poorly that he was left off the playoff roster. He's yet another project for Katz, and the focus seems to be on shortening Lopez's arm swing -- a fix that worked for Giolito between 2018 and his breakout season of 2019. But does Lopez have the mental focus to be a consistent starting pitcher? That remains to be seen. Of note, he has an option remaining and can be sent to Triple-A Charlotte if he doesn't win a job in camp.

4. Michael Kopech. Once we get to April, it will have been 31 months since we last saw the 24-year-old Kopech on a big-league mound. He blew out his elbow late in the 2018 season, missed all of 2019 after Tommy John surgery, and opted out of the 2020 season because of the COVID-19 pandemic and assorted personal issues. Kopech is back this year for sure, and he's saying he's in a better mental place than he's been at any point in his career. And make no mistake about it, he isn't going to Charlotte. He's going to be on the club when camp breaks. I just think he's going to start the season in the bullpen. Because he has not pitched in two years, he will be on an innings limit, and the Sox are already talking about how they will need to be "creative" with his usage. For me, that means something other than starting every fifth day. I don't see Kopech opening the season in the rotation unless there are a bunch of injuries that force the Sox's hand.

5. Jimmy Lambert. The forgotten 26-year-old right-hander also had Tommy John surgery in 2019. He returned in 2020 and made two scoreless relief appearances with the Sox before a forearm strain sidelined him for the rest of the season. Lambert doesn't have the stuff that some other guys on this list have, but he has three pitches that he can get over the plate, and he's not afraid out there. The most likely scenario? Lambert pitches at the top of the rotation in Triple-A Charlotte, and he's a candidate to be called up if injury woes strike the major league rotation.

So, who do you have going into those last two spots, assuming good health? I'm obviously going with Cease and Rodon. 

I think both Lopez and Kopech will be on the team April 1, but both will be in the bullpen to start the season. Don't forget, Jace Fry is out until May after having back surgery, and Jimmy Cordero has a leftover suspension to serve after beaning Willson Contreras with a pitch in a late-season game against the Cubs in 2020.

That opens up a couple of bullpen jobs in the short run. Ultimately, though, Cordero will come back from his suspension, Lopez will head to Charlotte to stay stretched out to start, and we'll see him in the likely event that Rodon needs time on the injured list. That's my prediction.