Sources: Mike Clevinger agrees to 1-year deal with White Sox

Mike Clevinger

Injuries played a major part in derailing the 2022 White Sox, so you would think adding players with a track record of good health would be a priority this offseason.

That's what makes the signing of injury-plagued pitcher Mike Clevinger so baffling. According to reports, the Sox and the 31-year-old veteran right-hander are in agreement on a one-year, $12 million contract.

Like so many guys the Sox have signed through the years, Clevinger was good once upon a time. In 101 games (88 starts) with the Cleveland Indians from 2016 to 2020, Clevinger went 42-22 with a 3.20 ERA, while striking out 10 batters per nine innings.

The Sox tried to acquire Clevinger at the 2020 trade deadline, but instead he went to the San Diego Padres in a nine-player deal -- a move that ultimately allowed Cleveland to acquire four players who contributed to its 2022 AL Central Division championship.

Once in San Diego, Clevinger suffered an elbow injury late in 2020, and he missed the entire 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. 

Credit to Clevinger for overcoming that -- he's one of only 47 pitchers in the history of baseball to return to major league competition after undergoing that particular surgery twice.

However, his 2022 season in San Diego was also injury-plagued. A right knee sprain, a right triceps injury and a bout with COVID-19 conspired to limit Clevinger to 22 starts and 114.1 innings. He went 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. These days, he's striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings. His average fastball velocity sat at 93.2 mph, down from its 95.5-mph peak in 2019.

Clevinger figures to occupy the No. 4 spot in the Sox rotation, behind Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, and ahead of Michael Kopech.

However, there are two reasons I don't like this signing. First, Clevinger can't be counted on to be healthy, and the Sox really need people to be healthy. According to pitching coach Ethan Katz, Kopech is behind schedule in his rehab after having right-knee surgery last fall. The hope is Kopech will be able to throw 85 pitches and go five innings by the time spring training ends in 2023.

In other words, you already have one injury concern going into the season with Kopech, and now you have two with Clevinger. The Sox have very little starting pitching depth in their organization, with only Davis Martin capable of coming up from Triple-A Charlotte and giving you a few credible starts in a pinch.

So that means Clevinger doesn't really solve the rotation hole. You're going to need at least one more guy as an insurance policy, but the Sox are on a tight budget, and they've already blown $12 million of whatever resources are being put toward free agency with this signing.

My other issue is that Clevinger is basically a five-inning pitcher at this point. The times-through-the-order penalty hits him hard. Here's a look at his 2022 numbers:

First time through the batting order: .588 OPS against

Second time through the batting order: .692 OPS against

Third time through the batting order: 1.032 OPS against 

When the opposition comes to the plate to start its third time through, bullpen get ready!

Here's another way to look at it, by pitch count:

Pitches 1-25: .605 OPS against

Pitches 26-50: .642 OPS against

Pitches: 51-75: .810 OPS against

Pitches 76+: .921 OPS against

Yeah, you're not getting any seven-innings outings out of Clevinger. If you get more than 20 starts, be happy. If you get 120 or more innings, be happy.

Now ask yourself: Should the Sox be making a guy who will be fortunate to make 20 starts and throw 120 innings their first major signing of the offseason? 

This player was a priority? I'm not impressed. The Sox need a workhorse for their rotation, not another question mark.