One of the strangest things about this past month has been the level of optimism surrounding the 2026 White Sox. If you looked around on social media, you found plenty of folks who seemed to earnestly believe this team could approach .500 this season -- despite 324 losses over the past three years.
Not to be a cynic, but I wasn't feeling it. My prediction for the season was 63-99, and I was just trying to be nice. It still looks like a 100-loss team on paper to me, and I don't see how any objective observer could come to any conclusion other than the Sox look like the worst team in the American League.
I look up and down the roster, and I can't find a single guy who I can point at and say, "Yes, I know what that player is going to do. You can trust him." Not even one single player.
All of the rosy projections are based on wishful thinking. There are hopes that inexperienced players will take the next step. There are hopes that cherished prospects will arrive sometime during the season and boost the team. But it's all hoping and wishing. There's nothing concrete with this team that you can put your arms around.
There isn't a single guy in the starting rotation who is proven. The outfield is full of Quad-A players, or in the case of Andrew Benintendi, a guy who is past his prime. Every major preseason publication picked the Sox to come last in the AL Central, and rightfully so.
This first week of the season has been a disaster, a slap in the face. The Sox are 1-5 after a 10-0 loss to the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. In their first six games, they've been outscored 52-21. Four of their five losses have come by five runs or more. They also had a loss where they led 7-2, only to blow it by giving up six runs in the eighth inning.
The team ERA is 8.63, which is about three runs worse than the next-worst team in MLB. With a run differential of -31 six games into the season, they are lucky they are not 0-6.
Wednesday's starter, Shane Smith, is a great example of White Sox hoping and wishing. Nothing against Smith personally, who seems like a great guy. He's just being set up to fail.
Smith was one of the best stories of the 2025 season. He was a Rule 5 pick, a long shot to make the team last year. Not only did he make the team, he ended up being the Sox's lone All-Star representative. He went 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 29 starts and posted a 2.3 WAR as a rookie. Very solid, overachieving, round of applause for Smith for that season. Can't take it away from him.
Here's the problem: The Sox were so impressed by that season that they came into this year counting on Smith to be their ace. It's an unrealistic expectation and totally unfair to him. He was on the scrap heap as recently as 15 months ago, and there's a reason for that. Last year was a pleasant surprise, and it just might have been his career year.
Instead of being happy with that, the Sox convinced themselves that they had "found something" and hyped Smith up as a "budding star." They made him their Opening Day starter, almost by default, because they didn't add any credible starting pitching during the offseason.
Welp, guess what? Smith had a bad spring. He couldn't find the plate during the entirety of the Cactus League schedule. When the bell rang on March 26, he wasn't ready. He got knocked out in the second inning on Opening Day, having given up four runs against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Sox burned through their whole bullpen and lost 14-2.
Wednesday? Even worse. Smith gave up four runs in the first inning, two more in the second and two more in the third. Eight runs allowed, and the Sox were buried -- with their bullpen once again overtaxed.
Smith is now 0-2 with a ghastly 19.29 ERA. Another couple outings like this, and there will have to be serious conversations about sending him to Triple-A.
So much for that ace hype. The Sox are guilty of this ALL THE TIME. They put unreasonable expectations on players. They ask them to perform beyond their capabilities.
That's not to say give up on Smith. He might right the ship. But if he does, he's an option for the back of the starting rotation. Former Rule 5 picks are not pitchers who should be considered the centerpiece of your staff. It's ludicrous.
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