Thursday, January 30, 2014

Does Matt Garza make the Brewers a contender?

The short answer is: probably not.

So why was it worthwhile for Milwaukee to add pitcher Matt Garza with a four-year, $50 million contract?

The Brewers are coming off a poor 74-88 season that saw them finish ahead of only the Cubs in the NL Central Division. It was their worst finish in nearly a decade.

Besides the exodus of stars from Milwaukee since going 96-66 and winning a division two years ago -- Prince Fielder, Zack Greinke were both part of that postseason team -- the Brewers were bit by just about every kind of misfortune last year.

Star third baseman Aramis Ramirez was hurt. Longtime pitching stalwart Yovani Gallardo imploded. Closer John Axford never regained his form. Left fielder Ryan Braun was suspended for his role in the Biogenesis scandal. Second baseman Rickie Weeks forgot how to hit, and after improving with his glove through the middle portion of his career, saw his defense continue to nosedive as it has since 2012. After a torrid first half last year, shortstop Jean Segura was awful in the second half. More injuries forced Milwaukee to go through first basemen faster than Spinal Tap went through drummers, including guys like Alex Gonzalez (!), Juan Francisco (!!) and Yuniesky Betancourt (!!!).

That's a long list, and the Brewers certainly have more areas that could use some fixing up. At least you would think they'd have signed a free agent before January.

Here's the thing: The Brewers might not need to add that many more pieces to improve over last year. They still have good players in center field (Carlos Gomez) and at catcher (Jonathan Lucroy), and a steady, if not spectacular, starting pitcher in Kyle Lohse.

Even if minor additions Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay make an awful platoon at first base, they'd be hard pressed to be worse than what was out there last year.

There's the hope that Segura makes adjustments and is better his second full season as a starter. Plus there's optimism younger players like Khris Davis can hit well in a corner outfield spot, while starting pitchers Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg can either improve or build on last year's work. Maybe Gallardo works out his struggles, too.

A mostly healthy Ramirez could boost them at third base. Ryan Braun just playing, even if he's never as good as what might have been his PED-lifted peak, will help the offense. If Weeks has just lost too much bat speed to ever be useful again, Milwaukee has an option in Scooter Gennett, who probably hit over his head last year (.324/.356/.479), but could be passable at second base.

If all of those things happen for the Brewers, that's not a shabby team. Maybe one that can contend in the NL Central, where nobody made any big upgrade, and where the Reds and Pirates might fall back to earth a little bit.

Granted, things rarely always go your way in baseball. So expecting the best-case scenario across the board is probably foolish.

Still, the Brewers can't dismiss their need for another pitcher, or the fact that the guy they signed came at a decent price, or that Garza might be a key piece for a team that could rebound from a disappointing year.

After how long it took Milwaukee to return to respectability this last decade, their winning season in 2007 being its first in 14 years previous, the Brewers should be working to maintain some of that respectability.

The work isn't over, but bringing Garza aboard and paving over a sinkhole at first base are good starts.

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