Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Is new Yankees left-hander James Paxton really an "ace" or a "star"?

James Paxton
There is a difference between being an ace and having ace stuff.

Case in point, left-hander James Paxton, the starting pitcher the New York Yankees acquired Monday from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for three prospects.

Let me preface this by saying I would take Paxton on my team. He was 11-6 with a 3.76 ERA in 28 starts for the Mariners in 2018. His fastball sits at 95-98 mph, and he's got a four-pitch mix that also features a cutter, a curve and a changeup.

That is ace stuff, no question about it, and he's got two years left of team control.

But I found myself disagreeing with a couple headlines I saw this morning: "The Yankees Now Have a Second Ace" on Fangraphs, and "Yankees acquire star pitcher James Paxton in trade with Mariners" on Yahoo Sports.

Paxton, for all of his good stuff, is entering his age 30 season, yet he's never made as many as 30 starts in a year, and his 160.1 innings pitched in 2018 represent a career high. Before this past season, he had never pitched more than 136 innings in a year.

Can you really be an "ace" or a "star" when you've been plagued by injuries throughout your career? The days of starting pitchers throwing 200-plus innings might be gone, but for me, 180 innings is the new 200. Paxton has never approached that, so despite his fantastic stuff, he's going to have to show me that he's reliable for a full season, plus playoffs, before I believe that he's the missing piece for the Yankees.

New York will slot him No. 2 in its rotation, behind Luis Severino and ahead of Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees also have CC Sabathia, but he's just a fifth starter at this point in his career. I expect New York to make another move to add a starter, likely in free agency, as a hedge against the possibility that Paxton gets hurt again.

As for the Mariners, it looks as though they are changing directions and going young. They acquired the Yankees' No. 1 pitching prospect, Justus Sheffield, in this deal. Sheffield is a 22-year-old lefty with a fastball that tops out about 97 mph. Right-handed pitcher Erik Swanson, 25, and outfielder Don Thompson-Williams, 23, also are headed to Seattle.

With Paxton gone, I assume the Mariners are listening to offers on Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Jean Segura, as well. I expect an active offseason in Seattle.

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