An important September series at Guaranteed Rate Field ... for Cleveland

Mike Clevinger

With one week remaining in the regular season, the closest playoff race is in the American League.

Three teams are fighting for the two wild card spots, with Oakland (94-62) holding a two-game lead for the first spot over Tampa Bay (92-64) and Cleveland (92-64), which are in a dead heat for the final playoff berth entering Monday's games.

I think the A's are going to secure home-field advantage in that wild card game this week. Their six remaining games are all on the road, but they are against the bottom two teams in the AL West. Oakland plays two against the Los Angeles Angels and four at Seattle. A 3-3 record this week should be good enough for the A's. They'll manage.

The battle between Tampa Bay and Cleveland is much more interesting. I think the Rays are the better team, but based on strength of schedule, the Indians have a slight edge in this race.

Mainly, that edge involves Cleveland getting a chance to play three games against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field from Tuesday through Thursday.

To be fair to the Sox, they have more than held their own against the Tribe this season. Chicago owns a 9-7 edge in the season series. However, the pitching matchups this week strongly favor Cleveland:

Tuesday: Mike Clevinger (12-3, 2.54 ERA) vs. Hector Santiago (0-1, 5.23 ERA)
Wednesday: Shane Bieber (15-7, 3.23 ERA) vs. Ross Detwiler (2-5, 6.98 ERA)
Thursday: Aaron Civale (3-3, 1.82 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (4-7, 5.79 ERA)

The first two games of the series, the Indians are throwing starting pitchers who will get Cy Young votes. The Sox are throwing starting pitchers who are lucky they are still in baseball. It will be Thursday before the Sox use a pitcher who could make the game interesting, and even then, the rookie Cease is no sure bet.

Meanwhile, the Rays are playing the Boston Red Sox on Monday night. They then will host the AL East champion New York Yankees on Tuesday and Wednesday before an off day Thursday.

So, between now and Thursday, the Indians have a golden opportunity to seize the lead in this race.

Once we get to the weekend, the schedule tilts back in Tampa Bay's favor, as it will go on the road to face also-ran Toronto, while Cleveland travels to Washington. The Nationals still are fighting to secure home-field advantage in the NL wild card race, so they likely will have something to play for.

From the Sox perspective, it sure would be nice to play spoiler against the rival Indians, but if we're making an honest assessment of the situation, the Sox would be fortunate to take one out of three in this series.