Monday, October 19, 2020

Tampa Bay Rays win American League pennant in unconventional way

Charlie Morton
The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 71.9% of their runs this postseason on the home run. That probably doesn't surprise you, right? This is, after all, the era of home run-or-nothing baseball.

The Rays posted a team batting average of .202 in a five-game AL Division Series against the New York Yankees -- and they won. Then the Rays batted .201 in a seven-game AL Championship Series against the Houston Astros -- and won again. They are going to the World Series for the first time since 2008.

Tampa Bay defeated Houston, 4-2, in Game 7 on Saturday night. Their offense was fueled by, what else, the home run ball. Randy Arozarena hit a two-run homer in the first inning, and Mike Zunino hit a solo shot in the second off Houston starter Lance McCullers. The Rays took an early 3-0 lead, and their pitching made it stick from there.

Arozarena, the rookie outfielder, hit seven home runs all season. He has seven home runs and 11 extra-base hits in the playoffs, including a remarkable .382/.433/.855 slash line. It's difficult to swing the bat much better than that on the big stage.

But here's the thing about the Rays that shows how the game has changed: Not a single one of their starting pitchers worked into the seventh inning during this ALCS. When a team bats .201 as a team and still wins, you would think they were being carried by dominant starting pitching. Not so.

Here's what the Rays got from their starting pitchers in each game:

Game 1. Blake Snell -- 5 IP

Game 2. Charlie Morton -- 5 IP

Game 3. Ryan Yarbrough -- 5 IP

Game 4. Tyler Glasnow -- 6 IP

Game 5. John Curtiss -- 1.1 IP

Game 6. Snell -- 4 IP

Game 7. Morton -- 5.2 IP

This is a far cry from the 2005 White Sox, who threw four complete games in the ALCS and needed only two outs from their bullpen in a five-game series win.

Things are much different than they were 15 years ago, and if you watched Game 7, there was every reason to believe Morton could continue pitching. 

Through those 5.2 innings, the veteran right-hander had allowed only two hits and one walk. He had six strikeouts and had thrown only 66 pitches -- 48 of them for strikes. At one point, he retired 14 consecutive Houston batters.

You could make the case he was "in trouble" in that sixth inning. The Astros had two runners on for the first time in the game -- on a walk and an infield single. There was no sign that Morton was tiring, and 10 or 15 years ago, there's no question he would have been allowed to pitch out of his own jam.

But not in 2020. Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash wanted a high-leverage reliever, Nick Anderson, to face Houston's Michael Brantley with two on and two out in a 3-0 game in the sixth inning. Anderson did, in fact, retire Brantley on a routine grounder to second base to end the threat. 

Anderson and Pete Fairbanks worked those last 3.1 innings. They gave up two runs, but they didn't surrender the lead. Ultimately, the Rays won, so you can't really second-guess Cash's decision-making. He stuck with what he's done throughout the season, and there's no arguing with success.

But hey, how about Morton? He was a member of the Astros in 2017 and 2018 before joining the Rays for the past two seasons. And in that time, he's pitched four winner-take-all playoff games and won them all, while posting a 0.46 ERA.  

That guy is good in the playoffs, and generally underrated overall -- just like the Rays often have been as a team.

Friday, October 16, 2020

It's time for everyone's favorite game show: White Sox player comparisons

Here are two season stats lines for two White Sox position players, one from 2020 and one from the past. Can you name them?

Player A: .256/.333/.314, .646 OPS, 139 plate appearances, 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run, 8 RBIs, 10 stolen bases

Player B: .228/.295/.294, .589 OPS, 149 plate appearances, 6 doubles, 0 triples, 1 home run, 15 RBIs, 0 stolen bases

While you ponder that, we'll play some baseball videos from YouTube. Scroll down when you think you have your answer ...




Got your answer? Player A is Willie Harris, a backup infielder, the 25th man on the 2005 world champions.

Player B is Nomar Mazara, the starting right fielder for the 2020 Sox.

That's right, 2005 Willie Harris had a higher OPS than 2020 Nomar Mazara, and he had the same number of home runs in 10 fewer plate appearances.

I think that adequately answers the question of whether Mazara is a non-tender candidate this offseason. No way in hell he deserves a raise on top of the $5.56 million he was scheduled to earn in 2020.

Let him walk.

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Sorry, White Sox fans, I think we'll have to live without James McCann

James McCann

It seems as though many White Sox fans want catcher James McCann, who is a free agent this offseason, to re-sign with the team for the 2021 season.

You can't blame those fans, because McCann has done his job both seasons he has been a member of the Sox. His partnership with ace pitcher Lucas Giolito is well documented -- we reached a point this year where we knew it would be McCann, not Yasmani Grandal, catching Giolito's starts.

And McCann was plenty solid with the bat, posting a .289/.360/.536 slash line with seven home runs and 15 RBIs in 31 games.

However, I'm afraid those fans are going to be disappointed, because McCann is going to sign elsewhere. The Sox have other holes to address in the starting rotation, in right field, at designated hitter and possibly the bullpen, and I don't think they are going to be able to afford the luxury of two starting-caliber catchers.

Furthermore, McCann has earned the right to be a full-time catcher somewhere, and that opportunity will not exist for him in Chicago as long as Grandal is on the roster and is making $18.25 million a year.

McCann will be the second-best catcher on the free agent market behind J.T. Realmuto. It just so happens that both New York teams might be looking to upgrade their catching situation this offseason. Realmuto could very well get paid by the Yankees, and if he does leave Philadelphia, we could see McCann as a member of the Phillies in 2021. 

It would make good sense for both parties. 

I read something online today where a Sox fan proposed "getting what you can" for Grandal, then re-signing McCann.

Umm, sorry, no chance that happens. 

I realize Grandal's .230/.351/.422 slash line did not impress some fans, but in a "down year," he still managed a 117 wRC+. A switch-hitting catcher whose offense is 17 percent above league average -- and whose framing is above average -- is not getting traded. If anything, the Sox need to get more left-handed offensively, so it makes no sense for them to part with anyone who can be productive from the left side of the plate.

I've also heard the idea of bringing back McCann as a primary catcher and kicking Grandal over to DH more days than not. 

There were seven games in 2020 where the Sox had McCann behind the plate and Grandal at DH. It seems like a good lineup choice, right? After all, Edwin Encarnacion had a dismal year, and Sox fans were justified in being tired of seeing him bat fourth or fifth in the lineup.

Unfortunately, Grandal just wasn't any damn good as a DH. He batted .087/.214/.130 with no homers and only one RBI, adding to the Sox's woes at that position. 

It's too bad if McCann has played his last game in a Sox uniform. He's been productive, and he's been a good leader. But the fit isn't there anymore, and it's almost certain he'll be moving on.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

2021 MLB draft order is set

Just in case you were wondering, the 2021 Major League Baseball draft order is set. It's nice to see the White Sox closer to the bottom than the top for a change. 

The Houston Astros do not have a first- or second-round pick in 2021 because of the cheating scandal.

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates
  2. Texas Rangers
  3. Detroit Tigers
  4. Boston Red Sox
  5. Baltimore Orioles
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks
  7. Kansas City Royals
  8. Colorado Rockies
  9. Los Angeles Angels
  10. New York Mets
  11. Washington Nationals
  12. Seattle Mariners
  13. Philadelphia Phillies
  14. San Francisco Giants
  15. Milwaukee Brewers
  16. Miami Marlins
  17. Cincinnati Reds
  18. St. Louis Cardinals
  19. Toronto Blue Jays
  20. New York Yankees
  21. Chicago Cubs
  22. Chicago White Sox
  23. Cleveland Indians
  24. Atlanta Braves
  25. Oakland Athletics
  26. Minnesota Twins
  27. San Diego Padres
  28. Tampa Bay Rays
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Call it what it is: White Sox fire Rick Renteria and Don Cooper

Rick Renteria
The news Monday was shocking. The White Sox stunned almost everyone in their fan base by firing manager Rick Renteria and pitching coach Don Cooper.

Sure, they called it a "mutual parting of ways," but don't be fooled by the semantics. This was a firing. 

Think about it: Why would Renteria and Cooper decide to leave now on their own accord? Two years ago, they were given a horrible roster than lost 100 games. They didn't step aside after that, so there's no reason to think they would want to leave now, just when the Sox are finally starting to field a competitive team.

General manager Rick Hahn is famous for his lawyer talk, and he's obviously dancing around the fact that these guys didn't get the job done. And, there's no reason to think they would get the job done in the coming years.

The Sox were 33-17 when they woke up on the morning of Sept. 18. A playoff position had been secured. Then, regular season and postseason combined, they went 3-10 the rest of the way. They lost the American League Central Division title to the Minnesota Twins, despite having a three-game lead with 10 games to play, and they made a quick exit from the playoffs against the Oakland A's.

You can't run from the fact that this was a collapse, nor can you run from the fact that decisions and development failings by Renteria and Cooper were significant contributors to that collapse.

A 5-4 loss to Cleveland on Sept. 24 is the one that cost the Sox the most in the division race. Renteria used Carlos Rodon in relief, trying to protect a 4-1 lead in the seventh inning. Rodon was just back from a significant injury, and he hadn't worked out of the bullpen in years. 

Predictably, Rodon lost the game. Renteria's defense for that move? Rodon "only needed to get one out" (he never got it), and the Sox wanted to see if he could handle such a situation before the playoffs.

OK, that's somewhat defensible. A playoff position had already been secured, and there is some merit to the argument of trying to see what, if anything, Rodon had to offer. Turns out, he had nothing to offer, so the correct thing to do is leave him off the playoff roster.

Instead, we saw Rodon again in relief, in a winner-take-all Game 3 in Oakland. The Sox were leading 3-2 when Rodon entered. Moments later, the Sox were trailing, 4-3. Once again, the justification was that Rodon "only needed to get one out." He never got it. The Sox lost, 6-4. Season over.

Making such an egregious mistake twice in a week, with a season on a line, that's the type of decision-making that gets a manager fired. Not to mention, Renteria started Dane Dunning in Game 3 of the playoffs, a defensible decision, but he had somebody warming up after Dunning gave up a leadoff single in the first inning.

If you have that little confidence in a starting pitcher, then don't start him. Dunning did not give up a run, but he was pulled with two on and two out in the first inning -- after throwing only 15 pitches. Not a good decision.

Renteria's moves in the playoffs had panic written all over them, and his body language in the dugout was quite bizarre. He was squatting in the ready position, acting as if he was playing shortstop, not managing the team. It made me anxious looking at him, so I wonder what his players thought of all that.

And let's not absolve Cooper. Yes, it's great that he resurrected the careers of Esteban Loaiza, Jose Contreras and Matt Thornton. But that stuff was 15 years ago now. 

Sox fans, how do we feel about the development of Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez these days? Not good, right? At best, these two young right-handers have stagnated, and you can make a strong case they have regressed.

It's unfortunate that Dunning was put in such a tough spot in Game 3. He's a rookie coming off Tommy John surgery, yet he was still considered a better option than Cease or Lopez, who have more experience, but have failed to take the next step under the dinosaur Cooper, who had been with the Sox organization for 33 years -- 18 of them as pitching coach across four managerial regimes.

At some point, it's time for a different voice on the pitching front. That time is now. And at some point, it's time for a manager who is more than just a respected figure in the clubhouse -- Renteria was that. To win a championship, a team needs a manager who has some feel for handling a pitching staff -- Renteria was not that. 

It's time for Hahn to go find that guy.

Monday, October 12, 2020

Designated hitter situation likely bottomed out for White Sox in 2020

Edwin Encarnacion
When you look at the 2019 numbers for the White Sox, it's clear that designated hitter was a huge weakness for their offense. Luminaries such as Yonder Alonso, AJ Reed and Matt Skole combined to post an ugly .205/.285/.356 slash line with 17 home runs and 75 RBIs over the course of the 162-game season.

Obviously, designated hitter is a bat-only position, so there is no baseball universe where a .641 OPS is acceptable at that spot.

Last offseason, Sox general manager Rick Hahn correctly identified this weakness and signed Edwin Encarnacion to fill the void. On paper, there was nothing wrong with that decision. Encarnacion had 414 career home runs coming into the 2020 season, and from 2012 to 2019, he had hit 32 or more home runs every year.

And while Encarnacion was entering his age-37 season, he was hardly a liability in 2019 as a 36-year-old. He hit 34 home runs, drove in 86 runs and posted an .875 OPS in 109 games.

Sure, there was one warning sign: In his final six playoff games of 2019 with the New York Yankees, Encarnacion went 1 for 22 with 11 strikeouts, no doubt contributing to the Yankees being eliminated by the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series.

Still, you could have argued that slumps happen, and perhaps Encarnacion had simply gone in a funk at the wrong time. The body of work suggested that he would easily clear the low bar set by White Sox designated hitters in 2019.

So, Hahn signed Encarnacion to a one-year, $12 million deal, with a club option for 2021 -- also for $12 million.

Umm, that option will not be picked up in probably the easiest decision Hahn faces this offseason. That's because Encarnacion somehow managed to lower an already low bar for Sox DHs. While he did hit 10 home runs in 44 games in 2020, his final season slash line was a terrible .157/.250/.377.

Encarnacion's strikeout rate jumped from 21.2% to 29.8%, and whenever a man produces only 19 RBIs while being allowed to hit fourth or fifth in the batting order all season, well, that's what Steve Stone would call a "dismal" year. 

If you include all players who served as DH this season, the Sox's slash line at the position finished at .148/.238/.350. Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, it did, and clearly, Encarnacion was the main culprit. 

It would be revisionist history to criticize the signing of Encarnacion, which seemed reasonable at the time. Furthermore, there is no buyout of his option, so the club can cut ties for nothing this offseason.

But here's where I will criticize the Sox: By about the halfway point of the 60-game season, it was apparent that Encarnacion had little or no bat speed left. Of his 10 home runs, only one came on a pitch of 93 mph or greater. Even casual observers could see that he couldn't handle high velocity anymore, but Sox brass lived in denial, claimed otherwise and continued to trot him out there game after game.

By the time the playoffs rolled around, it was clear that Encarnacion was not useful, and too many at-bats had been wasted on him. Could Zack Collins have helped the Sox in the playoffs as a DH? How about Andrew Vaughn, the top hitting prospect in the organization? 

We'll never know, because the Sox did not give many meaningful at-bats to Collins this season, and Vaughn spent all of his time at the team's alternate training site in Schaumburg.

Would it have killed the Sox to call up either Collins or Vaughn for the last two weeks of the regular season, give them some playing time and find out whether they were more useful than Encarnacion? I don't believe so, and I wish they would have done that. 

One of the key problems with the Sox is their insistence on sticking with struggling veterans for too long -- especially hitters. If a veteran hitter isn't setting a reasonable floor at a particular spot, what does it hurt to try a higher-ceiling young player at the position?

All Collins or Vaughn would have had to do is hit .180, and the spot would have been upgraded. There comes a time to find out what you have with certain players.

It sounds as though Vaughn will inherit Encarnacion's roster spot next season. He's a first baseman, so he and Jose Abreu will probably work in some sort of time share between first base and DH. You'd like to think those two players will combine for better than a .588 OPS, which is what the Sox got from their DHs in 2020.

Thursday, October 1, 2020

After all that, the 2020 White Sox win nothing notable

The White Sox had a three-game lead in the American League Central with 10 games to play. The schedule down the stretch was fairly difficult: three at Cincinnati, four at Cleveland and three at home against the Cubs.

But knowing what we know now, the Sox only needed to go 3-7 in order to win the division. Of course, they went 2-8.

However, the Sox won their first game in the playoffs, and they had two chances to advance to the next round. Of course, they lost both games.

And in Game 3 on Thursday, they had a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning. They lost, 6-4, to the Oakland Athletics.

I don't even feel like going over the details of this game. The season is over, and it leaves a real sour taste in my mouth. They should have won the division. They didn't. They should have won this series with the A's. They didn't.

I'm very, very tired of listening to people tell me how great the Sox are going to be in the future. I cannot embrace this group of players until they win something of consequence. For me, this season is characterized by choking and failing.

To me, this looks like the same old stuff. When the chips are down and execution is needed, the Sox can't execute.