White Sox starting pitching depth already eroding

When I listed my 10 preseason candidates for the White Sox starting rotation, I ranked Ky Bush as No. 7.

Cross him off. 

Sox general manager Chris Getz announced on Tuesday that Bush will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Bush, a 25-year-old lefty, made his big league debut last season. He went 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in four starts. Bush's ceiling is likely a No. 4 starter, so you may not see this is a big loss.

It's really not, but it is one less pitcher the Sox can use to make starts in a season where they are looking for people to eat innings. Realistically, I thought Bush would start somewhere between five and 10 games this season. Now, someone else needs to take those starts.

Innings are a concern for the Sox because four of their top-five guys in innings pitched from 2024 are no longer with the team. Here are their innings leaders from last year:

1. Chris Flexen, 160 innings
2. Garrett Crochet, 146 innings
3. Jonathan Cannon, 124.1 innings
4. Erick Fedde, 121.2 innings
5. Michael Soroka, 79.2 innings 

Only Cannon remains with the team. Fedde was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals midseason last year. Crochet was traded to the Boston Red Sox this offseason. Soroka left via free agency and is now a member of the Washington Nationals. Flexen remains a free agent.

That's 507 innings walking out the door. Martin Perez and Bryse Wilson were the only two veteran pitchers brought in this offseason. They will not combine for 300 innings, let alone 500.

Maybe it's time to get Flexen on the phone?

10 candidates for White Sox starting rotation

When I heard the White Sox were signing veteran left-handed pitcher Martin Perez to a one-year contract, my reaction was, "Ha! He's going to be the Opening Day starter!"

Perez, 33, is getting a guaranteed $5 million, according to reports. His salary for 2025 will be $3.5 million. The contract includes a $10 million mutual option for 2026, with a $1.5 million buyout.

What does the Sox rotation look like now that former ace Garrett Crochet has been traded to the Boston Red Sox for futures? Well, here are 10 pitchers we might see:

1. Perez. As ridiculous as it sounds, Perez is going to be the most accomplished starter on this team, which puts him in line for a potential Opening Day nod. His career record is 90-87 with a 4.44 ERA over 314 games, including 269 starts. He struggled the first half of 2024 with Pittsburgh, going 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA. But after a midseason trade to the San Diego Padres, Perez discovered new life over 10 starts. He went 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA. The lefty has a long track record of being a league-average starter, which makes him the top option on this Sox team.

2. Jonathan Cannon. The 24-year-old, former third-round draft pick was an afterthought coming into 2024, but he ended up making 23 appearances (21 starts) with the Sox and put up a 1.9 WAR season as a rookie. He went 5-10 with a 4.49 ERA. Among the younger pitchers who are candidates for the rotation, Cannon starts 2025 on the firmest ground.

3. Drew Thorpe. The 24-year-old righty was the centerpiece of the return in the Dylan Cease trade. After tearing up Double-A Birmingham, he was promoted to Chicago last season and made nine starts. Results were mixed, as he went 3-3 with a 5.48 ERA before elbow trouble sidelined him for the last two months of the season. If Thorpe is healthy, it's hard to envision him not being in the rotation.

4. Bryse Wilson. This 27-year-old veteran made 34 appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers last season, mostly in relief. But he did make nine starts in 2024, and I think he signed with Chicago believing he would get an opportunity to crack the rotation. I like his odds, just because it's hard to see the Sox going with Perez and four kids. There probably has to be one other veteran in there, and Wilson is probably that guy.

5. Davis Martin. The former 14th-round pick surprised everyone by giving the Sox about 60 respectable innings across 14 games (9 starts) in 2022, but then Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the entire 2023 season. He returned to mixed results in the second half of 2024. He made 11 appearances (10 starts) and tossed 50 innings with 47 strikeouts, going 0-5 with a 4.32 ERA. He just turned 28 years old, so there's not much upside left, but he probably enters spring with an inside track for a rotation spot.

6. Sean Burke. Another former third-round pick, the 25-year-old was another guy who was off the grid coming into 2024. He's been injured for a good chunk of his professional career, but he pitched himself back into the picture by making the most of his September call-up last season. He appeared in four games, three of them starts, and went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. He struck out 22 guys in only 19 innings. This is a staff that needs strikeouts. We'll see how Burke looks in spring.

7. Ky Bush. The 25-year-old lefty, acquired in 2023 in the trade that sent Lucas Giolito to the Los Angeles Angels, had a strong showing in Double-A Birmingham and earned an August look with the Sox. Alas, he struggled with his control, walking 16 guys in just 17.2 innings in the majors. He finished 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA. I would expect Bush to start the season in Charlotte, but it's not unreasonable to think he'll get another chance sometime in 2025.

8. Nick Nastrini. Speaking of control problems, Nastrini made eight starts and one relief appearance for the 2024 Sox. He walked 36 guys in 35.2 innings. That was enough to give him an 0-7 record with a 7.07 ERA. Ouch. The 24-year-old will probably get one more kick at the can to make the rotation this spring. It isn't as if the Sox are bursting at the seams with proven options, so there's still a chance for Nastrini to move up this list. But right now, I'm thinking whatever future he has might be in the bullpen.

9. Jairo Iriarte. Another pitcher who came to the Sox in the Cease trade, Iriarte got a late-season look in 2024 with six relief appearances. There's nothing wrong with his 1.50 ERA, but he walked eight guys and struck out six in six innings. Iriarte has a power arm, and he's never going to have great control. But he can't be *that* wild and expect to hold down a rotation spot. He's probably destined for Triple-A Charlotte to start the season, but a pitcher on the 40-man who has had a look in the majors can't be completely discounted.

10. Shane Smith. How about a Rule 5 pick? Smith made 32 appearances and 16 starts across two levels in the Milwaukee Brewers organization last year. He was 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA in those outings. He has to make the club out of spring training, or be offered back to the Brewers. So, that helps his odds, but the most likely scenario is he grabs a spot in the bullpen.

We'll leave top pitching prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith off this list for now. They will start the season in the minor leagues, but I'll mention them here just to acknowledge that a 2025 debut isn't out of the question for either of them. I just don't expect it to occur in March or April.

3 White Sox prospects make Baseball America's Top 100

The White Sox are playing as I type this Tuesday night, but I'm not watching the game. I'm indifferent about any outcomes for the rest of the 2023 season.

Instead, I'm writing a blog about prospects, while a game between the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves is on my TV.

It's obnoxious that it's come to this, but here we are. Anyway, I was flipping through the August edition of Baseball America when I saw that publication's updated Top 100 list. For the first time in quite some time, that list contains three White Sox prospects. In case you were wondering, here they are:

Colson Montgomery, SS (No. 22). The Sox's 2021 first-round pick missed the start of the season with an oblique injury, which has limited him to 36 games. Upon his return, the shortstop tore up the Arizona Complex League, posting a 1.099 OPS in 10 games. 

Montgomery had no difficulties once he was promoted to High-A Winston-Salem, either, where he had a 1.088 OPS with three home runs and three doubles in 17 games. Opposing pitchers walked him 20 times, including three times intentionally.

So, the Sox promoted Montgomery to Double-A Birmingham. In nine games there, he's batting .179/.465/.357. The OPS is .822, and it's mostly because of a high on-base profile. Montgomery has walked 10 times (against 10 strikeouts) in those nine games. This is obviously a small sample size. We'll see if he adjusts to the level between now and the end of the year.

Noah Schultz, LHP (No. 35). Schultz, who just turned 20 years old earlier this month, was the Sox's first-round draft pick in 2022. A strained flexor muscle in his left arm delayed Schultz's season debut until June 2, but he's been overpowering in Low-A Kannapolis thus far.

They are keeping this kid on a strict innings count -- he's only thrown 27 innings in 10 starts. But across those 10 starts, he did not allow an earned run in nine of them. He had one bad outing where he gave up four earned runs, leaving his ERA at 2.33.

Schultz has struck out 38 and walked only six in those 27 innings. He's allowed 17 hits. Right now, the whole deal is to build up stamina and arm strength.

Edgar Quero, C (No. 75). In this magazine, Quero is still listed as a member of the Los Angeles Angels. The 20-year-old catcher was traded to the White Sox, along with pitcher Ky Bush, in exchange for pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez last month.

The early returns for this switch-hitting catcher are good since he joined Double-A Birmingham. Quero has caught 12 games, batting .326/.377/.370. He's yet to hit his first home run as a member of the Sox organization, but he does have 12 RBIs.

Quero will take his walks. He has four of them with the Barons (against six strikeouts). For the season, he's walked 59 times and struck out 59 times, so he's shown good knowledge of the strike zone, which is something the Sox need.

He is young for the level, so I'm going to pump the brakes on anyone who thinks Quero can get to the majors in 2024. It's possible, but unlikely. The most likely scenario is he starts in Birmingham again next year, and hopefully earns a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. Maybe he's the Sox catcher in 2025, if all goes well.

One other prospect to note: Baseball America picked a Minor League Player of the Year for all 30 organizations at midseason. Montgomery and Schultz weren't going to get this nod for the Sox, because of their injuries. 

Instead, the magazine bestowed that honor upon ... outfielder Terrell Tatum.

Tatum, who just turned 24, had an exceptional start to the year at High-A Winston Salem. He played 60 games there, batting .268/.434/.421. Note the high on-base percentage. Tatum drew 58 walks in those 60 games, and he turned a bunch of them into doubles. He had 32 steals for the Dash.

That earned him a promotion to Double-A Birmingham. The OBP is down a little bit there in 38 games, but the numbers are still encouraging on the whole: .262/.390/.376. Tatum has swiped 10 bags for the Barons, which puts him at 42 steals for the season.

A speedy outfielder who gets on base and steals bases? Umm, yeah, the Sox need that skill set, right? It will be interesting to see if Tatum can play his way into the team's plans.

Lucas Giolito 0-2 after first 2 starts with Angels

Lucas Giolito

Former White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has had a rough introduction to his new team since being traded to the Los Angeles Angels last week.

The Angels are on a tough road trip, and Giolito's first two starts have come against the Toronto Blue Jays and the Atlanta Braves, two playoff contenders. He lost both games. Here are his pitching lines:

• July 28 at Toronto: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 Ks, 1 BB, 2 HRs allowed
• Aug. 2 at Atlanta: 3.2 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 2 Ks, 3 BBs, 3 HRs, allowed

Ouch. Especially that game against the Braves. Giolito's given up 12 earned runs over his first nine innings pitched as a member of the Angels.

It's going to be a couple of years before we can judge that trade for the Sox, who received prospects Edgar Quero and Ky Bush from the Angels.

But for Los Angeles, both Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are free agents at the end of the season, so they need immediate returns for this trade to work. Most of all, the Angels need to qualify for the postseason this year, before superstar Shohei Ohtani hits free agency.

I think it's going to be a tall order. As I sit here right now, the Angels are 56-53. They are in fourth place in the American League West, seven games behind the first-place Texas Rangers. The wild card is more doable. The Angels are 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot. The problem is they have four teams they need to pass.

In addition to Giolito and Lopez, the Angels acquired first baseman C.J. Cron and outfielder Randal Grichuk at the trade deadline. They will get All-Star center fielder Mike Trout back off the injured list at some point this month.

Still, I'm skeptical that they'll have enough. 

On the Sox end of the trade, Quero is the best prospect the Sox acquired at the deadline. The 20-year-old catcher is ranked No. 65 on MLB Pipeline's list of Top 100 prospects.

The Sox assigned the switch-hitter to Double-A Birmingham, where he has gone 4 for 21 with three RBIs in his first five games. The book on Quero is he has good plate discipline. He's walked 56 times this season, with 55 strikeouts. That's a good ratio. 

His power is down, however. In 2022, he hit 17 homers for Low-A Inland Empire. For whatever reason, the Angels allowed him to skip a level and promoted him to Double-A this season. He's young for the league, and this year, he's only got 3 home runs. 

It's too early to panic about that, however. Time is on Quero's side. He should be allowed to start next season at Double-A, and hopefully he'll earn a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte at some point. Perhaps we'll see him in Chicago sometime in 2025. If so, that would be terrific news.

Bush, a 23-year-old lefty, was good enough to pitch in the Futures Game in 2022, when he went 7-4 with a 3.93 in 21 starts with Double-A Rocket City. 

Injuries have limited him to nine starts this season. The Sox assigned him to Double-A Birmingham, and he got absolutely bombed in his first start there -- seven earned runs on 12 hits over 3.1 innings pitched.

Again, we won't make an assessment after one start, but I would pump the brakes on the idea that Bush will be a candidate for the 2024 Sox rotation. Maybe the second half of the year, if all goes well. It is good that the Sox added a lefty starter to their farm system. We know that's one area that's lacking. We'll see if they can develop Bush.