Sean Burke will start Opening Day for White Sox

When spring training began, it was a question mark whether Sean Burke would make the White Sox roster. I had him at No. 6 on my list of 10 candidates for the starting rotation.

Turns out, Burke is not only on the team, but he'll also start Opening Day on March 27 against the Los Angeles Angels, according to manager Will Venable.

Burke, 25, was a third-round pick out of the University of Maryland in 2021, and he did not make his MLB debut until last season.

In fact, Burke has only three starts and 19 innings in the majors to his credit, but hey, he was effective in a small sample size. He went 2-0 on a team that only won 41 games all season, and he struck out 22 in those 19 innings.

It's just a surprise the Sox are going this direction, with more experienced options such as Martin Perez and Davis Martin on the roster.

That said, of all the candidates for the Opening Day start, Burke perhaps has the best stuff. He's got the 95 mph fastball. He's added a sinker to his power slider, and he showed a good changeup last season that helped keep opposing batters off his higher-velocity pitches.

Ultimately, what is there to lose if Burke fails? Expectations for the season are super low. The ceiling for Burke is higher than someone like the journeyman Perez, so I see no real drawback to giving this a shot.

White Sox starting pitching depth already eroding

When I listed my 10 preseason candidates for the White Sox starting rotation, I ranked Ky Bush as No. 7.

Cross him off. 

Sox general manager Chris Getz announced on Tuesday that Bush will miss the 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Bush, a 25-year-old lefty, made his big league debut last season. He went 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in four starts. Bush's ceiling is likely a No. 4 starter, so you may not see this is a big loss.

It's really not, but it is one less pitcher the Sox can use to make starts in a season where they are looking for people to eat innings. Realistically, I thought Bush would start somewhere between five and 10 games this season. Now, someone else needs to take those starts.

Innings are a concern for the Sox because four of their top-five guys in innings pitched from 2024 are no longer with the team. Here are their innings leaders from last year:

1. Chris Flexen, 160 innings
2. Garrett Crochet, 146 innings
3. Jonathan Cannon, 124.1 innings
4. Erick Fedde, 121.2 innings
5. Michael Soroka, 79.2 innings 

Only Cannon remains with the team. Fedde was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals midseason last year. Crochet was traded to the Boston Red Sox this offseason. Soroka left via free agency and is now a member of the Washington Nationals. Flexen remains a free agent.

That's 507 innings walking out the door. Martin Perez and Bryse Wilson were the only two veteran pitchers brought in this offseason. They will not combine for 300 innings, let alone 500.

Maybe it's time to get Flexen on the phone?

10 candidates for White Sox starting rotation

When I heard the White Sox were signing veteran left-handed pitcher Martin Perez to a one-year contract, my reaction was, "Ha! He's going to be the Opening Day starter!"

Perez, 33, is getting a guaranteed $5 million, according to reports. His salary for 2025 will be $3.5 million. The contract includes a $10 million mutual option for 2026, with a $1.5 million buyout.

What does the Sox rotation look like now that former ace Garrett Crochet has been traded to the Boston Red Sox for futures? Well, here are 10 pitchers we might see:

1. Perez. As ridiculous as it sounds, Perez is going to be the most accomplished starter on this team, which puts him in line for a potential Opening Day nod. His career record is 90-87 with a 4.44 ERA over 314 games, including 269 starts. He struggled the first half of 2024 with Pittsburgh, going 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA. But after a midseason trade to the San Diego Padres, Perez discovered new life over 10 starts. He went 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA. The lefty has a long track record of being a league-average starter, which makes him the top option on this Sox team.

2. Jonathan Cannon. The 24-year-old, former third-round draft pick was an afterthought coming into 2024, but he ended up making 23 appearances (21 starts) with the Sox and put up a 1.9 WAR season as a rookie. He went 5-10 with a 4.49 ERA. Among the younger pitchers who are candidates for the rotation, Cannon starts 2025 on the firmest ground.

3. Drew Thorpe. The 24-year-old righty was the centerpiece of the return in the Dylan Cease trade. After tearing up Double-A Birmingham, he was promoted to Chicago last season and made nine starts. Results were mixed, as he went 3-3 with a 5.48 ERA before elbow trouble sidelined him for the last two months of the season. If Thorpe is healthy, it's hard to envision him not being in the rotation.

4. Bryse Wilson. This 27-year-old veteran made 34 appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers last season, mostly in relief. But he did make nine starts in 2024, and I think he signed with Chicago believing he would get an opportunity to crack the rotation. I like his odds, just because it's hard to see the Sox going with Perez and four kids. There probably has to be one other veteran in there, and Wilson is probably that guy.

5. Davis Martin. The former 14th-round pick surprised everyone by giving the Sox about 60 respectable innings across 14 games (9 starts) in 2022, but then Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the entire 2023 season. He returned to mixed results in the second half of 2024. He made 11 appearances (10 starts) and tossed 50 innings with 47 strikeouts, going 0-5 with a 4.32 ERA. He just turned 28 years old, so there's not much upside left, but he probably enters spring with an inside track for a rotation spot.

6. Sean Burke. Another former third-round pick, the 25-year-old was another guy who was off the grid coming into 2024. He's been injured for a good chunk of his professional career, but he pitched himself back into the picture by making the most of his September call-up last season. He appeared in four games, three of them starts, and went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. He struck out 22 guys in only 19 innings. This is a staff that needs strikeouts. We'll see how Burke looks in spring.

7. Ky Bush. The 25-year-old lefty, acquired in 2023 in the trade that sent Lucas Giolito to the Los Angeles Angels, had a strong showing in Double-A Birmingham and earned an August look with the Sox. Alas, he struggled with his control, walking 16 guys in just 17.2 innings in the majors. He finished 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA. I would expect Bush to start the season in Charlotte, but it's not unreasonable to think he'll get another chance sometime in 2025.

8. Nick Nastrini. Speaking of control problems, Nastrini made eight starts and one relief appearance for the 2024 Sox. He walked 36 guys in 35.2 innings. That was enough to give him an 0-7 record with a 7.07 ERA. Ouch. The 24-year-old will probably get one more kick at the can to make the rotation this spring. It isn't as if the Sox are bursting at the seams with proven options, so there's still a chance for Nastrini to move up this list. But right now, I'm thinking whatever future he has might be in the bullpen.

9. Jairo Iriarte. Another pitcher who came to the Sox in the Cease trade, Iriarte got a late-season look in 2024 with six relief appearances. There's nothing wrong with his 1.50 ERA, but he walked eight guys and struck out six in six innings. Iriarte has a power arm, and he's never going to have great control. But he can't be *that* wild and expect to hold down a rotation spot. He's probably destined for Triple-A Charlotte to start the season, but a pitcher on the 40-man who has had a look in the majors can't be completely discounted.

10. Shane Smith. How about a Rule 5 pick? Smith made 32 appearances and 16 starts across two levels in the Milwaukee Brewers organization last year. He was 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA in those outings. He has to make the club out of spring training, or be offered back to the Brewers. So, that helps his odds, but the most likely scenario is he grabs a spot in the bullpen.

We'll leave top pitching prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith off this list for now. They will start the season in the minor leagues, but I'll mention them here just to acknowledge that a 2025 debut isn't out of the question for either of them. I just don't expect it to occur in March or April.

Yankees, Astros dominating American League playoffs

Justin Verlander

Who is Randy Dobnak anyway?

The Minnesota Twins play the White Sox 19 times a season, so I'd like to think I'm familiar with the Minnesota roster. But I was left scratching my head when I saw that Dobnak was starting Game 2 of the American League Division Series on Saturday against the New York Yankees.

I didn't recall Dobnak pitching for Minnesota at all this season against the Sox -- or against anyone. Turns out, he did appear in relief in a game against Chicago on Aug. 29. I must have missed that one.

Dobnak entered Saturday's game with nine career MLB appearances, and predictable results ensued against the Yankees. He allowed four earned runs on six hits with two walks and no strikeouts over two-plus innings, and New York rolled to an 8-2 victory.

The Yankees now possess a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five series, and they are continuing their decades-long mastery of the Twins. Minnesota's postseason losing streak now stands at 15 games -- a MLB record -- and 12 of those losses have come against the Yankees.

Obviously, the Twins don't have the pitching to get the job done in this series, despite their 101 wins in the regular season. Minnesota's starting rotation is in tatters. Jose Berrios lost Game 1. Manager Rocco Baldelli for some reason opted to save 15-game winner Jake Odorizzi for Game 3. Other than that, there are no good options for the Twins.

Michael Pineda is suspended because of performance-enhancing drug use. Kyle Gibson has been dealing with illness, and apparently doesn't have the stamina to pitch more than a couple of innings at a time. And Martin Perez has regressed into the below-average starter he's been for most of his career.

It's hard to see the Twins winning their next two games at home and forcing a Game 5 against the mighty Yankees. Heck, it's hard to see Minnesota winning Game 3 at this point.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros are the other side of the coin with starting pitching. They have a 2-0 lead in their best-of-five series with the Tampa Bay Rays. Honestly, it's easy to have sympathy for the Tampa Bay hitters, who have had to face the best two pitchers in baseball the first two games of that series.

Here's how Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole have fared:

Verlander in Game 1: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 8 Ks, 3 BBs
Cole in Game 2: 7.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 15 Ks, 1 BB

Game 1 was a 6-2 win for Houston; Game 2 was a 3-1 win for the Astros.

Zack Greinke gets the ball in Game 3 for Houston, and while he's a slight downgrade from Verlander and Cole, he's still going to be tough on Tampa Bay hitters. Greinke is 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA this season. How's that for a No. 3 starter? Good luck, Rays.

For months, it's looked as though the 107-win Astros and 103-win Yankees were on a collision course to meet in the American League Championship Series. At this point, it would be a shock if that matchup does not take place.

And, a word to the wise for the White Sox and their brass: Neither the Astros nor the Yankees are going away in the American League. They are setting the bar, and the bar is much higher than mediocre 87-75 seasons.

Even if the Sox improve by 15 games next season to get to 87 wins, it's hard to see them matching up with the league powers. They need about a 30-game improvement. It's going to take more than just one good offseason, I dare say.