10 candidates for White Sox starting rotation

When I heard the White Sox were signing veteran left-handed pitcher Martin Perez to a one-year contract, my reaction was, "Ha! He's going to be the Opening Day starter!"

Perez, 33, is getting a guaranteed $5 million, according to reports. His salary for 2025 will be $3.5 million. The contract includes a $10 million mutual option for 2026, with a $1.5 million buyout.

What does the Sox rotation look like now that former ace Garrett Crochet has been traded to the Boston Red Sox for futures? Well, here are 10 pitchers we might see:

1. Perez. As ridiculous as it sounds, Perez is going to be the most accomplished starter on this team, which puts him in line for a potential Opening Day nod. His career record is 90-87 with a 4.44 ERA over 314 games, including 269 starts. He struggled the first half of 2024 with Pittsburgh, going 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA. But after a midseason trade to the San Diego Padres, Perez discovered new life over 10 starts. He went 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA. The lefty has a long track record of being a league-average starter, which makes him the top option on this Sox team.

2. Jonathan Cannon. The 24-year-old, former third-round draft pick was an afterthought coming into 2024, but he ended up making 23 appearances (21 starts) with the Sox and put up a 1.9 WAR season as a rookie. He went 5-10 with a 4.49 ERA. Among the younger pitchers who are candidates for the rotation, Cannon starts 2025 on the firmest ground.

3. Drew Thorpe. The 24-year-old righty was the centerpiece of the return in the Dylan Cease trade. After tearing up Double-A Birmingham, he was promoted to Chicago last season and made nine starts. Results were mixed, as he went 3-3 with a 5.48 ERA before elbow trouble sidelined him for the last two months of the season. If Thorpe is healthy, it's hard to envision him not being in the rotation.

4. Bryse Wilson. This 27-year-old veteran made 34 appearances with the Milwaukee Brewers last season, mostly in relief. But he did make nine starts in 2024, and I think he signed with Chicago believing he would get an opportunity to crack the rotation. I like his odds, just because it's hard to see the Sox going with Perez and four kids. There probably has to be one other veteran in there, and Wilson is probably that guy.

5. Davis Martin. The former 14th-round pick surprised everyone by giving the Sox about 60 respectable innings across 14 games (9 starts) in 2022, but then Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the entire 2023 season. He returned to mixed results in the second half of 2024. He made 11 appearances (10 starts) and tossed 50 innings with 47 strikeouts, going 0-5 with a 4.32 ERA. He just turned 28 years old, so there's not much upside left, but he probably enters spring with an inside track for a rotation spot.

6. Sean Burke. Another former third-round pick, the 25-year-old was another guy who was off the grid coming into 2024. He's been injured for a good chunk of his professional career, but he pitched himself back into the picture by making the most of his September call-up last season. He appeared in four games, three of them starts, and went 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. He struck out 22 guys in only 19 innings. This is a staff that needs strikeouts. We'll see how Burke looks in spring.

7. Ky Bush. The 25-year-old lefty, acquired in 2023 in the trade that sent Lucas Giolito to the Los Angeles Angels, had a strong showing in Double-A Birmingham and earned an August look with the Sox. Alas, he struggled with his control, walking 16 guys in just 17.2 innings in the majors. He finished 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA. I would expect Bush to start the season in Charlotte, but it's not unreasonable to think he'll get another chance sometime in 2025.

8. Nick Nastrini. Speaking of control problems, Nastrini made eight starts and one relief appearance for the 2024 Sox. He walked 36 guys in 35.2 innings. That was enough to give him an 0-7 record with a 7.07 ERA. Ouch. The 24-year-old will probably get one more kick at the can to make the rotation this spring. It isn't as if the Sox are bursting at the seams with proven options, so there's still a chance for Nastrini to move up this list. But right now, I'm thinking whatever future he has might be in the bullpen.

9. Jairo Iriarte. Another pitcher who came to the Sox in the Cease trade, Iriarte got a late-season look in 2024 with six relief appearances. There's nothing wrong with his 1.50 ERA, but he walked eight guys and struck out six in six innings. Iriarte has a power arm, and he's never going to have great control. But he can't be *that* wild and expect to hold down a rotation spot. He's probably destined for Triple-A Charlotte to start the season, but a pitcher on the 40-man who has had a look in the majors can't be completely discounted.

10. Shane Smith. How about a Rule 5 pick? Smith made 32 appearances and 16 starts across two levels in the Milwaukee Brewers organization last year. He was 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA in those outings. He has to make the club out of spring training, or be offered back to the Brewers. So, that helps his odds, but the most likely scenario is he grabs a spot in the bullpen.

We'll leave top pitching prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith off this list for now. They will start the season in the minor leagues, but I'll mention them here just to acknowledge that a 2025 debut isn't out of the question for either of them. I just don't expect it to occur in March or April.

5 thoughts on Baseball America's Top 10 White Sox prospect list

We know how it goes with prospects. Teams and sometimes even the media who cover them often give you a rose-colored view of a young player's future.

Guys who are 20 years old and just starting out are unfairly given "comps" to retired players who are enshrined in Cooperstown. It's mostly eyewash, especially if your favorite team happens to be rebuilding and has nothing better to do than to try to sell fans on the idea that great things are coming three or four years down the road. 

That's certainly where the White Sox are living right now. They will stink again in 2025, but they want you to buy into the six guys they have ranked on the Top 100 prospect list. They want you to believe that the outlook will be much better by, say, 2027 or 2028.

Me personally, I prefer to read what people outside of Chicago are saying about White Sox prospects. Not that the analysts at Baseball America are perfect. These are people who devote their lives to amateur and minor league baseball, and as "prospect-heads," even they overrate the future of young players at times. 

That said, I find their commentary interesting. In Baseball America's December/January issue, which is available on newsstands through Feb. 10, they break down the Top 10 prospects for every American League team. After reading through the report, here are five of my thoughts on what they said about the White Sox:

1. Noah Schultz is the consensus top prospect in the organization. The 21-year-old lefty still has only one victory in 33 professional starts, but that's because the Sox don't let him throw many innings. His typical outing lasts four innings. Schultz split time between High-A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham last season, posting a 1.48 ERA with 73 strikeouts and only 17 walks in 61 innings with the Barons. He tops everyone's Sox prospect list now, including Baseball America's, because his fastball velocity ticked up to 95-97 mph last season. He's got two plus pitches now, fastball and slider. He also throws a changeup and a cutter. The changeup needs to get better for him to reach the majors. 

2. Colson Montgomery is described as an "above-average" defender." Montgomery's struggles at the plate were well documented in 2024. He started the season as the top prospect in the system, but he batted just .214/.329/.381 in 130 games at Triple-A Charlotte. He's No. 2 on Baseball America's White Sox list, as the publication cited Montgomery's late-season improvement that coincided with more of an all-fields approach. But interestingly, they lauded his defense as "above average." He was described as having good footwork, positioning and anticipation at shortstop. That's different than what we often hear in Chicago, where some people seem convinced that Montgomery will need to move to third base.

3. This list was published before the Garrett Crochet trade. Notably absent from the White Sox Top 10 list are catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery, who were still with the Boston Red Sox at the time Baseball America went to press.  For the record, Teel was No. 4 on the Boston list, while Braden Montgomery was No. 6. Another catcher, Edgar Quero, is No. 4 on the White Sox list. He is described as Chicago's "catcher of the future." One wonders whether that's still the case with Teel in the fold. Baseball America suggests Teel would need another half-season at Triple-A to "refine his defense." It also believes Quero could use a little more Triple-A time. The White Sox catching situation is going to be among the more interesting storylines surrounding the team coming into the year.

4. Braden Montgomery is a lot better batting left-handed. In reading the scouting report on the newly acquired outfielder, it was noted that he hit .361/.476/.834 with a 16% strikeout rate from the left side, but just .224/.404/.478 with a 28% strikeout rate from the right side during his junior season at Texas A&M. That makes me wonder whether Montgomery's future is as a platoon player, or maybe he should just scrap the whole switch-hitting thing. Either way, Baseball America sees him as a three true outcomes corner outfielder. They don't rule him out as emerging as a big league option by 2026, although we can expect him to start in High-A in 2025.

5. The fifth-best position player prospect in the Sox system is ... Caleb Bonemer? We know the top four are Colson Montgomery, Teel, Quero and Braden Montgomery. And we know the White Sox system is pitching heavy. So, is there anyone else position player-wise? Well, the 19-year-old Bonemer checks in at No. 8 on Baseball America's list. He was just drafted in the second round in 2024. He's likely to be given a full-season assignment at Low-A Kannapolis in 2025. In other words, he's a long ways away in even the most optimistic scenario. Nothing against the kid, but this is further evidence that the Sox have a lot of work to do when it comes to finding more potential major league bats.

3 White Sox prospects make Baseball America's Top 100

The White Sox are playing as I type this Tuesday night, but I'm not watching the game. I'm indifferent about any outcomes for the rest of the 2023 season.

Instead, I'm writing a blog about prospects, while a game between the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves is on my TV.

It's obnoxious that it's come to this, but here we are. Anyway, I was flipping through the August edition of Baseball America when I saw that publication's updated Top 100 list. For the first time in quite some time, that list contains three White Sox prospects. In case you were wondering, here they are:

Colson Montgomery, SS (No. 22). The Sox's 2021 first-round pick missed the start of the season with an oblique injury, which has limited him to 36 games. Upon his return, the shortstop tore up the Arizona Complex League, posting a 1.099 OPS in 10 games. 

Montgomery had no difficulties once he was promoted to High-A Winston-Salem, either, where he had a 1.088 OPS with three home runs and three doubles in 17 games. Opposing pitchers walked him 20 times, including three times intentionally.

So, the Sox promoted Montgomery to Double-A Birmingham. In nine games there, he's batting .179/.465/.357. The OPS is .822, and it's mostly because of a high on-base profile. Montgomery has walked 10 times (against 10 strikeouts) in those nine games. This is obviously a small sample size. We'll see if he adjusts to the level between now and the end of the year.

Noah Schultz, LHP (No. 35). Schultz, who just turned 20 years old earlier this month, was the Sox's first-round draft pick in 2022. A strained flexor muscle in his left arm delayed Schultz's season debut until June 2, but he's been overpowering in Low-A Kannapolis thus far.

They are keeping this kid on a strict innings count -- he's only thrown 27 innings in 10 starts. But across those 10 starts, he did not allow an earned run in nine of them. He had one bad outing where he gave up four earned runs, leaving his ERA at 2.33.

Schultz has struck out 38 and walked only six in those 27 innings. He's allowed 17 hits. Right now, the whole deal is to build up stamina and arm strength.

Edgar Quero, C (No. 75). In this magazine, Quero is still listed as a member of the Los Angeles Angels. The 20-year-old catcher was traded to the White Sox, along with pitcher Ky Bush, in exchange for pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez last month.

The early returns for this switch-hitting catcher are good since he joined Double-A Birmingham. Quero has caught 12 games, batting .326/.377/.370. He's yet to hit his first home run as a member of the Sox organization, but he does have 12 RBIs.

Quero will take his walks. He has four of them with the Barons (against six strikeouts). For the season, he's walked 59 times and struck out 59 times, so he's shown good knowledge of the strike zone, which is something the Sox need.

He is young for the level, so I'm going to pump the brakes on anyone who thinks Quero can get to the majors in 2024. It's possible, but unlikely. The most likely scenario is he starts in Birmingham again next year, and hopefully earns a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. Maybe he's the Sox catcher in 2025, if all goes well.

One other prospect to note: Baseball America picked a Minor League Player of the Year for all 30 organizations at midseason. Montgomery and Schultz weren't going to get this nod for the Sox, because of their injuries. 

Instead, the magazine bestowed that honor upon ... outfielder Terrell Tatum.

Tatum, who just turned 24, had an exceptional start to the year at High-A Winston Salem. He played 60 games there, batting .268/.434/.421. Note the high on-base percentage. Tatum drew 58 walks in those 60 games, and he turned a bunch of them into doubles. He had 32 steals for the Dash.

That earned him a promotion to Double-A Birmingham. The OBP is down a little bit there in 38 games, but the numbers are still encouraging on the whole: .262/.390/.376. Tatum has swiped 10 bags for the Barons, which puts him at 42 steals for the season.

A speedy outfielder who gets on base and steals bases? Umm, yeah, the Sox need that skill set, right? It will be interesting to see if Tatum can play his way into the team's plans.